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MLS Cup Playoffs: Austin FC-FC Dallas duel in Texas Derby

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Austin FC FC Dallas

We are in the throes of the best weekend in Major League Soccer: Conference Semifinals Weekend. Thus far, the Philadelphia Union edged past FC Cincinnati 1-0, while LAFC outlasted LA Galaxy 3-2 in the latest classic El Trafico. Two more games remain this round, CF Montreal host NYCFC in what should be a tightly contested affair up north of the border.

And the one being previewed here: the first ever game in the MLS Cup Playoffs between Austin FC and FC Dallas. Both games this season ended in a pair of draws, and the two clubs were separated by three points in the table. This Sunday Night Futbol affair could steal the show as the best game in entire postseason. So let’s dive deep.

Austin FC-FC Dallas duel in first postseason Texas Derby

Do the two draws tell us anything going in?

As mentioned before, the clubs met twice this season and split the points in both affairs. The 2-2 thriller in Austin in late June saw four second-half goals capped off by an 85th minute equalizer by Danny Hoesen. Weeks later in mid-July, in Frisco, a Paul Arriola goal was cancelled by Diego Fagundez in a 1-1 draw. But there are takeaways to grab from each game.

First off, FC Dallas posted an Expected Goals (xG) tally of two in each of the contests, meaning they will get goal-scoring chances. Real Salt Lake were able to score twice at Austin last weekend before ultimately giving up the lead and the game in penalties. Furthermore, Paul Arriola will be Dallas’ X-Factor after scoring in both games of the derby, even though he was quieted against Minnesota in the first round.

For Austin, it must be said, they are as resilient as they come. To be 2-0 down against Real Salt Lake and pull it off is quite the feat and Josh Wolff will be proud of his players for surviving and advancing. Also, they fell behind in both Texas derbies and came away with points. Now, it’s rare that such a thing could happen a third time, but don’t be surprised to see Austin take the lead this time around.

Should that happen, the obvious choice would be Sebastian Driussi. But, look to Diego Fagundez with his eye for goal to open the scoring. Both backlines will be tested.

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Whose attacking unit holds the advantage?

Man, if you had to choose a front-three between these two teams, you’d be spoiled for choice. Sebastian Driussi, Maxi Urruti, Diego Fagundez, even Ethan Finlay has chipped in for Austin. The 65 goals scored in the regular season ranked third behind top seeds Philadelphia and LAFC. Josh Wolff has constructed an attack that flows and can hurt opponents in wide areas as well. They’ve scored 15 goals in set pieces, which is nothing to sneeze at. The more touches Fagundez and Driussi get in attacking areas, the better Austin will be because they are more potent up front.

But, that’s not to short change FC Dallas. Jesus Ferreira won MLS Young Player of the Year for 2022, along with Alan Velasco and Paul Arriola. The trio have clicked wonderfully this year, along with the supply from midfielder Sebastian Lleget. Nico Estevez will be pleased by his team launching 19 shots against Minnesota in the first round as well as over 600 passes. Dallas won the possession battles in both games in the regular season, and could look to do so again. The crowds and ultras have gone at it back and forth on social media, making for a hotly-charged atmosphere Sunday night.

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Goalkeepers could decide this in 90 minutes, or beyond.

Given how the regular season games went, it’s possible this game could make for a long night. Should it go past 90 minutes, or even 120 minutes, both net minders will feel confident of saving the game for their squad. Maarten Paes saved Will Trapp’s penalty in the shootout last weekend, while veteran Brad Stuver saved three spot kicks. Both keepers will have absolutely scouted intensely the opposition attackers, any edge in a game of this magnitude. Winner goes to LAFC for the Western Conference Final.

Prediction: Austin FC 1-2 FC Dallas in Extra Time
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