The Toronto Raptors are cooking up an intriguing offence as they rebuild

Thoughts on “BBQ” — Barnes, Barrett, Quickley — and what The Toronto Raptors need offensively moving forward.

Now that the draft lottery has passed and everyone has had time to cool down, it’s time that we take a step back and look at what the Toronto Raptors are building.

Plenty of opinions swirled before and after the trade deadline, and leading up to the draft lottery — everyone contributing their two cents about what should and shouldn’t have happened. Yes, the Raptors lost some assets (for nothing). Yes, the draft pick conveyed to San Antonio. Yes, they are rebuilding.

Despite the significant negativity surrounding the last season, this isn’t bad basketball and it’s not the end of the world.

It’s the start of a new era, and it’s actually really exciting.

The first thing to realize is while Scottie Barnes is definitely the franchise player, Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett are as big of a part of the rebuild as he is. The chemistry they can build together will generate limitless opportunities for each other and can help the Raptors build a really good offensive system.

Obviously, IQ will be entering free agency as a restricted free agent, meaning the Raptors will have the chance to match any offers he gets. I would be extremely surprised if they don’t, especially since they have some money to play with this offseason.

Rather than living in the past, let’s talk about why we should be really excited about the future, particularly the trio lovingly dubbed “BBQ” — which stands for “Barnes, Barrett, Quickley”. To get a better understanding of why the future’s so bright, first we have to talk about what each of them do well individually.

BB(arrett)Q: Toronto likes what RJ Barrett is cooking up

RJ Barrett arrived to Toronto with mixed reviews, and in a lot of ways it actually felt like some Knicks fans were happy to see him go. It kind of makes sense when you roll the tape — by most statistical margins, he’s improved since coming north of the border.

His field goal percentage, three-point percentage, rebounds, assists, blocks, steals, and points, have all made positive jumps. In fact, he’s actually averaging the most points, rebounds, and assists per game in his whole career. For both Barrett and the Raptors, it’s been a win-win. The key will be to integrate him into the offensive system that Darko envisions, and now that we’re into the summer, there will be plenty of time to work that out.

Barrett loves the paint, and has a variety of options to get there. He’s already shown his ability to cut to the rack and finish strong on lob passes. He can also take the ball in isolation and cook the defender. In fact, those are actually two of his best plays. As a cutter, he manages 1.40 points per possession with a 69.1 EFG% on those shots. He rarely turns the ball over in those situations, at about a 1.7% clip. He’s shown a lot of versatility in the way he’s developing his ability to use his right hand, which limits what defenders can do when he’s headed down the court with a full head of steam. In isolation, he manages 1.12 points per possession, at a sweltering 55.3 EFG%. It’s important to note that he doesn’t do it very often, it’s just when he does he’s in the 87th percentile in the league.

Both of these indicate his decision making ability in and around the paint. RJ certainly doesn’t lead the league in attempts on either of those plays, but part of the reason that he’s been so efficient is how he’s evolved as a playmaker.

Even though he feasts in the paint and relies on cutting and driving, his passing and shot creation for the other guys on the floor allows him to be productive. He’s not a traditional guard of course, but still manages almost to generate 10 points per game off assists, so this is excellent evidence that his game is progressing to make his teammates better too.

When he’s not going downhill, he’s also improved his shot from distance. He’s not really seen as a true shooter, but manages 47.4% on pull-up shooting (although he only does it about once per game) and 4.4 points per game (PPG) at a 40% clip on catch and shoot plays.

He’s growing as a defender too, especially from his rookie campaign. This is one of the biggest areas that could benefit him and the Raptors, but even more so working on his ability to go to the right to reduce his predictability in the paint.

BBQ(uickley): Quickley adds a fiery spice to this dish

Quickley has also benefited from major statistical jumps in his move to Toronto. A big part of that is a role change, now that he is starting as opposed to coming off the bench.

Averaging 18.6 ppg, 6.8 apg, and 4.8 rbg (all career highs), he’s also been consistent in his three point percentage as well. Quickley is slowly developing into a 3-level scorer, utilizing more of the floor than RJ does. His shot chart actually shows a preference for mid and long range, but he also finds success on drives and in facilitation as well.

His second most effective play type is isolation, where he averages 1.11 points on each play, on 45.7 EFG%. Those stats place him within the 86th percentile in the league. This is second only to shooting off screens, also cashing in 1.5 points per play on 82.7 EFG%, placing him in the 98th percentile in the league.

From long range, IQ is effective, shooting about 40% from 3, on volume shooting (7 per game). The most effective shots for him are those created by his teammates, as he cashes in about 4 ppg on catch and shooting, with a 61.3 EFG%. He’s also effective as a pull-up shooter, scoring about 6 points per game this way, although as the season went on, his FG% did see a dip, although this is understandable given the way the offence struggled down the stretch. From the wings and the top of the 3-point line are his best spots, very rarely shooting from the corners where he sits below league average.

In the mid-range, Quickley utilizes fade-aways, floaters, and jump-shots. Rather than shooting from the elbows or the key where he hasn’t found as much success, he prioritizes shots going to the right from the short corner. While he’s sitting around league average from these spots, it’s likely that he will continue to improve with his continued development.

He drives to the rack about 11.6 times per game, but doesn’t take as many shots in the paint, since to some extent he has struggled at the rim with larger defenders, shooting below league average. This hasn’t stopped him from driving, but instead he’s also developed his ability to facilitate, generating almost 17 ppg on assists.

Quickley has shown an ability to improve from a shooting perspective, but he does need to work on short range shots more than anything else. Developing a good floater would make him even harder to guard, especially in the pick and roll game, but having good shots at the rack, over bigger defenders is also something he should work on.

B(arnes)BBQ: Scottie Barnes brings home the bacon

Our first year all-star is breaking all kinds of records this year, routinely finding himself on the receiving end of intriguing and unique statistical achievements:

• Youngest player to average 20/5/5/1/1 (for a good portion of the season)
• Youngest Raptor to record a triple double
• Youngest Raptor to record 20/5/5 with 5 3PM
• Youngest Raptor to record a 30 point triple-double

Averaging 19.9 ppg, 8.2 rbg, 6.1 apg, 1.5 bpg, and 1.3 spg. He’s also shooting a career best 34% from long range on about 5 attempts per game. He’s shown himself to be a unique talent, as a scorer, facilitator, and defensively.

Scottie has managed to be somewhat productive on PNR plays, in transition, on post-ups and on paint touches, averaging close to a point per play on all those actions. As a cutter, Barnes generates 1.49 points per play, with a 74.6 EFG% on those shots (83rd percentile). His big body and athleticism makes him a rather intimidating presence in motion, often drawing additional defenders. When the shot isn’t there, he’s more than happy to pass out as well, creating opportunities for his teammates. He generates over 15.3 ppg on assists, ranking in the top 30 players in the league, more than guards like Fox, White, Irving and Edwards.

As a shooter, his best locations are from the top of the 3-point line, left wing, right corner, and in the midrange at the elbows and in the key. He takes a fair amount of shots from all those locations, and with the facilitation of his teammates, they’re able to find him in his spots more. His size also helps him shoot over defenders in those spots as well.

While Scottie is not in the top 5 players in the league in any one statistic, what is truly interesting about his game is the way in which he’s able to do a little bit of everything. There’s no specific niche that he falls into. Most of us are still trying to figure out what position he should play, since he’s managed to be effective on post-ups and paint touches, but also as a point guard.

Defensively, he’s an energy guy, with 2.8 stocks per game, 2.3 deflections, and he directly contests 7 shots per game, comparable to OG Anunoby and Nikola Jokic.

Scottie’s shot is the biggest thing he can work on, both beyond the arc, and in the midrange. He’s already made massive strides between the past two seasons, and hopefully another year and offseason under his belt would make him even more productive.

How the recipe comes together in Toronto’s Basketball BBQ

There’s already obvious chemistry between the three players. They favour each other offensively, constantly looking for opportunities to pass the ball to each other.

The two players IQ passes to the most are RJ and Scottie (6 and 5 per game respectively). Both average over 52% from short range shots when getting the rock from him. It’s mutual though, since RJ passes to IQ about 6 times a game, and when he finds him at distance he cashes in 48% of the time.

Scottie is also Barrett’s second choice, who receives about 3 a game to cash in almost 60% of his shots. When Scottie finds IQ, he shoots a sweltering 55% from long range. Of the remaining Raptors, Scottie passes to him the most, but RJ only 3 times a game, fourth behind Poeltl and Trent Jr.

This will be extremely important in the system that Darko uses, prioritizing ball movement every possession. They’ve already shown a willingness to pass and facilitate for one another which hopefully will continue to get better.

Scottie and RJ preferentially cut on opposite sides of the rim, creating gravity on opposing sides of the floor. IQ’s ability to stretch the floor for both of them helps provide space to operate which is also beneficial. Any time they cut and there is too much traffic, there’s either someone on the weak side or IQ up top as a shot option.

What’s still on the ingredient list for Toronto

Besides just developmental jumps from all three of them being necessary, the team needs to be filled out with complimentary pieces.

Additional floor spacing is always a good idea, especially when we look at the paint touches and shot charts for RJ and Scottie.

Gradey Dick has already shown massive improvement over the course of the season, getting votes for second team all-rookie, a nice nod to the season he has put in. His pocket three-point shooting is well above league average, and he’s shown the ability to pull from long range as well.

Of course, they’ll need some shooters off the bench as well, but that isn’t necessarily easy to come by. Agbaji shows potential for being a 3-point shooter, but has struggled so far since coming from Utah. His biggest asset is defence, but perhaps during the offseason this is something he could work on as well.

It’s still unclear what will happen with Trent Jr. going into free agency, and while rumours have it that Bruce Brown’s option will be picked up, it’s probably more as a trade chip than as part of the future of the franchise.

The centre position is also intriguing, especially with the significant assets and now contract the Raptors have offered to obtain Poeltl’s services. He’s a big body and a dominant force in the paint, but he isn’t a shooter, and limits spacing on the floor.

The trade for Olynyk seemed to be a bit of a test to see how a spacing centre would affect the chemistry on the floor. His minutes have looked great from an eye test. He provides shooting beyond three which helps with spacing, something that benefits Scottie and RJ. He also has shown himself to be an excellent passer, something that is crucial to the offensive system.

The next few months will help form a clearer picture. The draft and free agency will be the biggest determiners of the season, because we will have to wait until October to see anything from a development perspective.

The ultimate question is, how long will the rebuild take before the Raptors are competitive again?