The Rap-Up: Toronto enters must-lose territory this week

The Raptors have an important week ahead with two of the hardest opponents remaining on the schedule.

There are 7 weeks left in the season. How the Toronto Raptors perform over these next 7 weeks could be the difference in landing a franchise-altering player in the draft or “just” a solid starter to grow with Toronto’s already solid core.

At the risk of starting each remaining Rap-Up with the same introduction: this is one of the most important weeks of the season!

Of the 25 remaining games, only 5(!) are against teams currently above .500. That number drops to 3 after Wednesday!

Coming out of the All-Star break, the Raptors have not played like a team clamouring for lottery balls. They outplayed Miami for 3 of 4 quarters in regulation and came through in the clutch against Phoenix. (Side note: It felt very weird and borderline sacrilegious hoping for the Suns to complete the second-half comeback on Sunday.)

With 2 of the most difficult opponents (based on current record) on deck to start the week, will the Raptors get back on track and start losing again?

February 25 vs Boston Celtics

I have a moral dilemma with this game.

Entering the season, I accepted the reality that compiling losses was the best course of action in Toronto’s rebuild. However, there were 2 exceptions: I could not root for Boston or Joel Embiid to beat the Raptors. My disdain for both is much stronger than my adoration for the incoming draft class!

What is your stance on cheering for a Boston win over Toronto?

Prediction

Before the ultra-gratifying victory over Boston in January, the Raptors had lost 10 straight to their arch-rivals, and 12 of the previous 13 matchups. If there is a time and place to worry about Toronto’s ability to maintain good draft lottery odds, that would come from this game. Boston is the toughest opponent remaining and has owned the Raptors for the last 3 seasons. Despite the absence of Jrue Holiday and the possible return of Jakob Poeltl, the Celtics cover the -11.5 spread.

February 26 @ Indiana Pacers

Indiana needs this win as much as Toronto needs the loss.

The Pacers are just ahead of the Bucks and Pistons(!) for home-court advantage in the first round. However, Milwaukee and Detroit have the 2 easiest schedules remaining among East teams. Also, the Raptors won the first two meetings between the teams. A season sweep at the hands of a bottom-7 team is not a good look for a team coming off a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Since returning from a left ankle injury that kept him out for two months, Aaron Nesmith has slowly regained his form and returned to the starting lineup right before the All-Star Break. With the expected starting lineup back intact, Benedict Mathurin has moved back to a reserve role. The Montreal native is having an excellent season and should thrive as Indiana’s sixth man. He is a three-level scorer who has improved his effective field goal percentage significantly, even as his playing time has increased.

Prediction

The Pacers have kicked off the post-All-Star break on a high note with double-digit wins over the Clippers and Grizzlies. There are no significant injuries as they wrap up a 4-game homestand against a short-handed Raptors playing the second game of a back-to-back. Indiana wins but Toronto covers the +9.5 spread.

February 28 @ Chicago Bulls

Considering Toronto’s good-on-the-court-but-bad-for-the-tank performance of late, the Chicago Bulls might be the remedy.

When the Raptors won 5 in a row in January, it was a visit from Billy Donovan’s squad that ended the win streak. The Bulls have won the first two matchups this season, both at Scotiabank Arena.

The last time Toronto played in Chicago the Raptors came away victorious, 118-107. A quick reminder of what you’ll find in the box score.

• Toronto’s leading scorer with 24 points was Gary Trent Jr.
• Bruce Brown put together the kind of performance that reminded everyone of his value (and surely something New Orleans valued): 19 points, 7 rebounds, 3 steals, and 2 blocks
• Dennis Schroder had a double-double (16 points and 10 rebounds)
• Thad Young started(!!) and scored 16 points!!!
• Toronto’s leading scorer off the bench with 17 points was Jordan Nwora

What multiverse did that game take place in?

Prediction

Say what you will about the direction the Bulls are headed, but they’ve brought their ‘A’ game every time they’ve faced Toronto this season. Chicago had lost six in a row following the trade deadline, only to run into a miserable team in Philadelphia…..and wallop the Sixers by 32 points! Chicago covers the -6.5 spread.

March 2 @ Orlando Magic

In their final game before Christmas, the Orlando Magic defeated the Boston Celtics to improve their record to 19-12. It was a promising victory for an undermanned Magic team (Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner were both dealing with oblique injuries) with hopes of improving on last season’s first-round exit.

Over the subsequent six weeks, the absences of Banchero, the Wagners (Franz and Mo), and Jalen Suggs would be the straws that broke the proverbial back in Orlando. After a home loss to their in-state rivals from Miami, the Magic had dropped to three games below .500.

Despite all these major injuries, the Magic still allow the fewest points per game. Orlando is a pair of last-minute misses against Memphis from having a 4-game win streak. With Paolo and Franz rounding back into form and Suggs nearing a return, the Magic have a third of the season to right the ship and be a difficult opponent (again) in mid-April.

Prediction

Teams like Orlando — trying to improve after a difficult stretch — salivate at the thought of playing a team with draft lottery luck aspirations, like Toronto. Let alone playing them twice! The Raptors have been shooting lights out from three since the All-Star break. Unfortunately for the Dinos, the Magic are #1 in opponents three made AND attempted. Orlando covers the -7.5 spread.

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Last Week’s Record: 1-1

Season Record: 24-33