The Rap-Up: The franchise cornerstone is out. So, now what?

Toronto enters the final quarter of the season with fading hopes of making the playoffs and equally dim chances of moving up the lottery standings. How do the Raptors manage the final 6 weeks of the season?

On Friday night, Scottie Barnes winced in pain as he injured his left hand during the second quarter against the visiting Dallas Mavericks. You could feel the air being sucked out of Scotiabank Arena as Toronto’s cornerstone hurried to the locker room in obvious pain.

So, now what?

As of Sunday, the Raptors sit 3.5 games behind the Hawks for a Play-In spot with the Nets parked in the middle. It goes without saying, but Toronto’s plans of remaining competitive and making a postseason push took a massive with Barnes’ departure. He is the oil that greases the offense and the glue that keeps the defense intact. Against the Mavericks, the Raptors were able to keep up with Luka Doncic and company in the first half. Once Barnes was ruled out at halftime, Dallas ran away with the game in the 3rd quarter.

On the other side of the coin — a.k.a. Tank City — Toronto currently owns the 7th-worst record in the NBA. It’s been discussed incessantly since the 2023 trade deadline that the top-6 protected pick sent to the Spurs in the Jakob Poeltl deal might come back to bite Toronto. That bite has been a slow and painful one to endure for Raptors fans.

Memphis is 2.5 games behind Toronto (or ahead of Toronto in the draft lottery standings) and has lost 14 of its last 16 games — including Saturday’s home game where they blew an 18-point fourth-quarter lead against fellow tankers, Portland. The Trailblazers, who the Raptors face this week, swept a double-header in Memphis, yet still sit 4.5 games behind Toronto.

To recap:

• Toronto has not been good enough this season to make the Play-In and now figures to be even worse
• Toronto has not been bad enough to have a bottom-6 record and likely have to give that first-rounder to San Antonio
• The team’s present and future superstar is likely out for the season

There’s still a quarter of the season remaining with equal amounts of games against championship-contenders (Nuggets, Thunder, and Timberwolves) and lottery-bound teams (Pistons, Blazers, and Wizards).

What are you watching for over these last 6 weeks of Raptors basketball?

March 5 vs New Orleans Pelicans

When I look at this Pelicans roster, I can’t help but think of the 2015-16 Raptors squad that was two wins shy of making the NBA Finals. And not because Jonas Valanciunas was the starting Center for both teams.

CJ McCollum is the wily veteran who plays the role of Kyle Lowry. Brandon Ingram is a dead-eye shooter who scores in a variety of unguardable moves, a la DeMar DeRozan. Trey Murphy and Jordan Hawkins are a pair of young studs who prop up the bench unit with effective 3-point shooting, similar to the roles Terrence Ross and Norm Powell played for Toronto.

Moving on to the starting Power Forwards, Zion Williamson and Luis Scola……have absolutely nothing in common. Herb Jones’ comp, OG Anunoby, was still a Freshman at the University of Indiana. Okay, maybe the Pelicans aren’t exactly like the East Finalist Raptors…..they’re much better!

Fun fact that may only interest me

Zion is 4-0 when facing the Raptors. Three of those wins were at home in New Orleans with an average margin of victory of 20 points! The fourth win was a 14-point rout……in Tampa.

After 4.5 seasons, 164 games, and 2 All-Star appearances, Zion Williamson will play his first professional basketball game outside of the United States!

Prediction

New Orleans visits Toronto with a significant rest advantage, having not played since Friday’s home win over the Pacers. While the Pelicans will miss Dyson Daniels (who leads the team in steals per game. Yes, even more than Herb!) due to a knee injury, the Raptors, who already won’t have Barnes, may also be without Jakob Poeltl (who dislocated his pinky finger in Sunday’s win over Charlotte) and Bruce Brown (knee inflammation).

The Pelicans are 4-0 this season when they have 3 or more days of rest. They rank 1st in opponents’ 3-point FG percentage and 2nd in opponents’ 2-point FG attempts. In other words, you’re not killing them from beyond the arc, and good luck getting shots up inside the arc.

Even if Toronto had Scottie in the lineup, this is the same New Orleans squad that annihilated the Raptors (with Barnes, Poeltl, and Brown in the lineup) by 38(!) points exactly one month ago. The Pelicans defeat the Raptors 123-108.

March 7 @ Phoenix Suns

It’s the Thaddeus Young revenge game! I’m kidding, obviously. We all know Thad was the beloved veteran who could do no wrong in a Raptors uniform. Besides, this is actually the Drew Eubanks revenge game! It is weird how they were traded for each other and eventually became teammates in Phoenix after being waived by their previous teams.

In 2025-26, Bradley Beal be earning $53,666,270 in guaranteed salary…..and will be the THIRD-highest paid player on the Suns. Imagine earning more money than 99% of the NBA but not having the pressure of being Batman OR Robin on your team. It’s no wonder Beal can play with little care of any repercussion.

Fun fact that may only interest me

Grayson Allen ranks in the 99th percentile in non-corner three accuracy among all wings, draining 90 of 197 shots (46%). So, the strategy should be to push him to the corner, right? Since January 1st, Allen has been the most efficient three-point shooter from the right corner.

The best strategy, it would appear, is to have him break free in transition.

Prediction

In Sunday night’s home loss to the Thunder, Jusuf Nurkic corralled a franchise-record 31 rebounds. That ties Kevin Love’s total on November 12, 2010, as the highest rebounding total in the 2000s! Say what you will about OKC’s lack of frontcourt bulk and rebounding prowess, but if the Raptors are without Poeltl, Kelly Olynyk and Jontay Porter will look like fresh meat to the Bosnian Beast.

There’s a tiny bit of trap game potential here. The Suns will be returning home after facing the defending champion Nuggets in Denver, then looking forward to a Saturday night tilt with the Celtics, who own the NBA’s best record and just won their third game this season by at least 50 points!

The symptoms of a trap game are present, especially with the news that Devin Booker will be out with an ankle sprain, but lose all steam when factoring in Toronto’s side of the equation. Without a full roster, especially one missing its stronger defenders, there just isn’t enough defensive talent to slow down Beal and Kevin Durant. The Suns take down the Raptors, 121-109. (Yes, Toronto defeated Phoenix earlier this season, but that entire starting unit has either been traded or is injured.)

March 9 @ Portland Trailblazers

One of the biggest signs that a team is entering tank mode is its injury report. It’s not so much the long-term injuries — Robert Williams was ruled out for the season after 6 games; Shaeden Sharpe has been out for a month since having abdominal surgery — but the short-to-medium-term injuries to core players.

DeAndre Ayton (hand), Matisse Thybulle (hip), and Jerami Grant (quad) are day-to-day, as of Monday. Scoot Henderson hasn’t played since before the All-Star break with a groin injury. Head Coach, Chauncey Billups, says they’re being “really cautious” with him, which reeks of “saving him for next season” vibes. The most suspicious injury belongs to Malcolm Brogdon. He was ruled out for two weeks — before the All-Star break — with elbow tendinitis. It’s been a month, and the latest reports indicate there’s no timeline for his return.

“Really cautious” and “no timeline” are must-have terms in the lexicon of tanking teams.

On the bright side, this affords more playing time for players like Jabari (son of Samaki) Walker, Kris (twin brother of Keegan) Murray, and Dalano (son of Rexdale) Banton.

Fun fact that may only interest me

Duop Reath was born in South Sudan and immigrated to Australia when he was 9. He loved Soccer and had dreams of playing for the Socceroos (Australia’s senior men’s team). Reath had a huge growth spurt in high school and started playing basketball. A scout from Lee College (Division 2 school in Texas) saw him play and recruited him to the U.S. (Sound familiar?)

Unlike Pascal Siakam, Reath went undrafted and took a longer path the the NBA. After Summer League stints with Dallas, Brooklyn, and Phoenix, along with playing abroad in Serbia, China, and Lebanon, Reath landed with Portland’s Summer League team. Duop signed a two-way contract at the beginning of the season and was converted to a standard NBA contract 3 weeks ago!

Tanking teams may not be fun to watch for many fans, but they allow for dreams like these to come true!

Prediction

The Raptors catch the Blazers on the second night of a back-to-back, as Portland welcomes Houston to town the night before. That isn’t necessarily good news for Toronto because Portland is surprisingly good with zero days rest. For a team that only has 17 wins, 7 of those victories (against only 3 losses) have come on the back end of a back-to-back!

Working in Toronto’s favour is that Portland has lost its last 7 home games. With Charlotte playing better defense since the trade deadline and San Antonio all of Victor Wembanyama’s superpowers, the Blazers have some motivation to engage in full tank mode.

Back in October, when the Raptors were still beaming with hope, Toronto had its first of many disappointing outings when they fell to the visiting Blazers. Portland will attack the glass with reckless abandon (4th in offensive rebounding percentage) but that opens them up for transition defense lapses, where they rank 25th in opponents’ transition frequency. The Blazers also rank 29th in opponents’ FG percentage at the rim, so expect Toronto to constantly put pressure in the paint with never-ending parades to the basket. The Raptors return the favour and defeat the Blazers, 119-110.

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Last Week: 3-1

Season Record: 39-22