The Rap-Up: Putting the post-All-Star break stretch in perspective

With two-thirds of the season complete, what can we expect from the Raptors over the final 2 months.

The Toronto Raptors enter the post-All-Star section of the schedule in a very unique position.

This is the 11th season of the Masai Ujiri era. In 8 of those seasons, Toronto made the playoffs. Last year, the Raptors made the play-in, so let’s keep that in the “staying competitive” bucket. That only leaves the Tampa season and this season.

It’s fair to say that, while there was no All-Star weekend in the 2020-21 season, the Raptors were not competing for a playoff spot during the latter half of their schedule.

Which bucket does this season land?

Toronto is five games out of a play-in position and has only begun the rebuild around Scottie Barnes. If it weren’t for the top-6 protected pick being sent to the San Antonio Spurs, the Raptors would be in full tank mode. Deliberately, at least.

The Raptors have the worst defense in 2024. Considering 5 teams are tanking, owning the lowest defensive rating is not the greatest source of optimism. What is positive, though, is the 27-game runway Toronto has over the next 6 weeks to see what a Scottie Barnes-led franchise looks like and how it can grow. RJ Barrett is playing well beyond the “toxic” image he had with the Knicks. Immanuel Quickley is as advertised with his shooting. His ability to run the point will get some much-needed reps over the second half of the season. Gradey Dick is playing with the confidence that only a bright red sequined suit could match.

There are silver linings up and down the roster. Toronto’s opponents this week cannot say as much.

February 22 vs Brooklyn Nets

The Brooklyn Nets are a mess.

They’re not a good enough team to make any noise in the play-in (let alone the playoffs). Brooklyn traded away its starting Point Guard (Spencer Dinwiddie) for a backup Point Guard who thinks he’s a starting Point Guard (hello Dennis Schroder revenge game). They traded a key reserve (Royce O’Neale) for two end-of-bench players (Keita Bates-Diop and Jordan Goodwin) and three second-round picks. Before the post-All-Star break resumed, the Nets fired Head Coach, Jacque Vaughn, and replaced him with Kevin Ollie.

You’d think the Nets, who are currently 2.5 games behind Atlanta for the final play-in spot, would be tanking. You’d think wrong because Brooklyn doesn’t own any picks in this year’s draft…..nor any of its own first-round picks until 2028!

Brooklyn still owes Houston two more unprotected first-rounders (2024, 2026) and two first-round pick swaps (2025, 2027) as part of the James Harden deal…..who isn’t even on the team anymore!

Fun fact that may only interest me

Vaughn was fired after posting a 21-33 record — 38.9% winning percentage.

Vaughn’s career win percentage is 36.3%. In fact, this season was better than any of Vaughn’s seasons coaching the Orlando Magic, where he had winning percentages of 24.4%, 28.0%, and 28.8%.

The last time Ollie was a Head Coach was with his Alma Mater, Connecticut Huskies. He finished his last two seasons with a record of 0-35*.

*All victories were vacated as the team had ineligible players on the roster. For his part in the manner, Ollie was essentially banned from coaching at the college level for three years.

Prediction

Vaughn’s dismissal was not a complete surprise as Brooklyn has lost 15 of its 21 games in 2024. Lowlights include a pair of losses to the tanking Trailblazers, and a 50(!)-point loss to the Celtics before the break. Their only wins in February were over the Spurs and the Embiid-less Sixers.

Brooklyn has won the last 5 meetings with the Raptors. The Nets have the tools to both attack the Raptors’ weaknesses and limit their strengths. Toronto ranks 20th in opponents’ corner three accuracy, while Brooklyn ranks 1st in corner three accuracy. Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, Dorian Finney-Smith, Lonnie Walker IV, and Cam Thomas all average at least 2 made threes per game (although, it’ll surprise absolutely no one when Schroder knocks down 5 triples in the first half).

The Nets also rank 6th in transition points allowed per play. If they’re able to limit Toronto’s fast-break scoring, this figures to be a long night for the Raptors, especially if Bridges can limit Barnes’ effectiveness.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the stat you’ll hear throughout the broadcast: the Raptors have lost all 11 games against Atlantic Division foes this season. I don’t think they’ll go winless over the final 5 contests against the division, but this should rise to 12. The Nets defeat the Raptors, 113-108.

February 23 @ Atlanta Hawks

The Atlanta Hawks are a mess.

There is SO much to dissect from this tweet.

The John Collins extension seemed steep at the time but understandable considering his potential as a core piece alongside Trae Young. That extension now looks ridiculous after the Hawks traded him for a package that ended up being Patty Mills — who has only played in 19 games this season and only topped 20 minutes in one appearance.

I tried fact-checking the Saddiq Bey deal and “only” saw five second-rounders being dealt (three to Portland and two to Golden State). Whether it’s five or six picks…..IT’S SADDIQ BEY!

Kevin Huerter’s trade to Sacramento only cost the Kings a lottery-protected first! None of the other players involved in the deal has scored more than 5 points per game this season.

Similar to how Brooklyn is still paying Houston for the Harden deal, Atlanta is still paying San Antonio for the Dejounte deal…..even as the Hawks actively tried to move him at the deadline!

Fun fact that may only interest me

Did you know it’s quicker to get a custom NBA jersey made and delivered than to replace an image on a birthday cake?

Huh, who knew?

Prediction

The last two visits to Atlanta ended in buzzer-beating losses for the Raptors (No, I’m not going to include a link to either of those endings).

The Hawks will have the rare EIGHT-game rest advantage on the Raptors. Toronto will be playing the second game of a back-to-back while Atlanta will be playing its first game after the All-Star break.

Toronto’s aforementioned defense (120.9 defensive rating) is only slightly worse than Atlanta’s (120.5). The Hawks have managed to stay afloat (relatively speaking) by fielding the 5th-best offense over the last two weeks. Atlanta has a bevy of board crashers in Clint Capela (4.8 offensive rebounds per game), Onyeka Okongwu (2.7), and Bey (2.6; showing he’s worth most of those second-round picks), all helping the Hawks rank 1st in offensive rebounds and 3rd in offensive rebound percentage.

Unfortunately for the Hawks, both Capela and Okongwu are dealing with injuries. If they’re able to play, Atlanta should prevail. But since both are on my fantasy team, I’m confident neither of them will play. Toronto avenges the previous defeats in Atlanta with a 123-121 victory.

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Last Week: 1-1

Season Record: 35-20