The Rap-Up: Picking against the spread

Toronto welcomes a pair of Western Conference giants before flying to Washington for a game against some Generals

I consider myself a fair man.

I’m not one to cheat or lie. I pay my taxes every year. If someone drops their wallet, I’ll try to locate them and return the lost item (without looking at the cash pocket).

So, when I started putting this weekly piece together and mulling over the outcomes of the games ahead, it felt like the Prediction section was a dropped wallet.

To keep my honour — and dial up the difficulty — I’m altering the predictions to account for the betting line. Instead of guessing the final score, I’ll indicate who will cover the spread for that game.

Have you seen the Raptors’ remaining schedule? 10 of the 14 remaining games are against teams in a playoff or play-in spot. The other 4 games are against the Nets and Wizards. With Toronto’s first game against Brooklyn, the Nets will still be in striking distance of a play-in spot. The second meeting is in Brooklyn on the back end of a back-to-back. The same can be said (SEGABABA) about this week’s game against the Wizards.

March 20 vs Sacramento Kings

The Kings are rolling towards another playoff season. They’re currently locked in a 3-way battle with Dallas and Phoenix for the coveted 6th playoff spot. I cannot stress this enough but EVERY. NBA. FAN. should be cheering for Sacramento. A play-in tournament with the Mavericks and Suns (read: Doncic vs Booker again) battling for 7th and the Lakers and Warriors facing off in a do-or-die game would break all kinds of broadcast records!

Back to the Kings, Domantas Sabonis is having a ridiculous season. In Monday’s overtime win over the Grizzlies, Sabonis notched his 50th(!) straight double-double. That ties him with Moses Malone for the third-longest streak in the last 50 years, trailing Kevin Love (53) and Elvin Hayes (55). Considering the Raptors’ depleted roster, especially upfront, it’s safe to assume the streak won’t end in Toronto.

Last season, the Kings were the darlings of the league. Sacramento finished 3rd in the West and compiled the greatest offensive season (highest offensive rating) in league history. Skeptics weren’t sure if that success would translate in the playoffs and Sacramento proved them right by bowing out in the first round to the Warriors.

This season, the Kings’ offense has come down to earth (relatively speaking) and 5 teams will pass their offensive rating record! Not too long ago, Sacramento was a potential landing spot for Pascal Siakam. While they ultimately didn’t land Siakam, it’s obvious Sacramento is missing a piece that will put them over the top.

For now, they’re still one of the best League Pass teams to watch.

Since this is Sacramento’s only visit to Toronto, I wouldn’t be surprised if they give a tribute video to the Kings’ only Canadian, Trey Lyles. However, I’d really like to see a video for Jordi Fernandez! What he’s already done with the Senior Men’s team is more than worthy of status as an honorary Canadian.

Fun fact that may only interest me

Last season, Mike Brown joined Hubie Brown, Pat Riley, and Don Nelson as the only coaches to win the Red Auerbach Trophy (Coach of the Year) in each conference. Mike’s was especially noteworthy because he became the first unanimous winner in the award’s history! That’s amazing considering a) the depth and breadth of coaches that have won the award and b) the award’s stiff competition, year after year.

Can the Kings give him an honorary jersey so that Gradey Dick can do a swap?

Prediction

The extra day of rest the Raptors had on the Kings did not work in Toronto’s favour. The growing list that is Toronto’s injury report added one more with the addition of Immanuel Quickley (personal reasons). Add IQ to the other 3 starters missing (Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl, RJ Barrett) plus 2 reserves (Chris Boucher, DJ Carton).

The Kings have won 4 of its last 5 road games with impressive victories over the Nuggets (only the 2nd road loss in regulation in 2024), Timberwolves, Clippers, and Lakers.

Sacramento is a 9.5 favourite and that, frankly, should be much higher. While the Kings have beaten the Raptors by double-digits only once (exactly 10 points on December 20, 2015) over the last 26 meetings, Toronto never had a roster this decimated. Sacramento’s 4th-ranked defense over the last 2 weeks keeps the Raptors at bay as the Kings cover the 9.5 spread.

March 22 vs Oklahoma City Thunder

By the time this game starts, approximately 75% of the first-round games in the Men’s NCAA Tournament would have wrapped up. In other words, most of your brackets will have already busted, so you won’t have FOMO while watching Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s only visit to Toronto (outside of Team Canada, of course).

It’s a shame that SGA’s remarkable season likely will not end with an MVP trophy. He’s put together, without hyperbole, the greatest NBA season by a Canadian! His Win Shares and VORP are higher than any of Steve Nash’s seasons. SGA has led the youngest team in the league to the top of the Western Conference standings. This is not to dampen Nikola Jokic’s eye-popping campaign that will deservedly end with a third MVP award, but SGA’s season has been unforgettable!

Among the many things that should scare the league is that SGA is only beginning to hit his peak. Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren have just surpassed 200 career games…..combined. Everyone except SGA and Lu Dort are either on a rookie deal or on an inexpensive salary. In other words, the Thunder have cap space! Oh, and Sam Presti still has a treasure chest full of draft picks. This is the team to watch for many years to come!

Fun fact that may only interest me

The 2021 NBA Draft is taking shape as one of the deeper draft classes in recent memory. If I asked you who leads the ‘21 crop in average rebounds PLUS average assists, would your first guess be Scottie Barnes? With career averages of 7.4 rebounds and 4.7 assists, Barnes actually ranks second with a total of 12.1. Can you guess who ranks first?

Evan Mobley? Close. He’s at 11.8.

Alperen Sengun? Almost. He’s at 11.7.

Cade Cunningham? Nope. He’s at 11.5.

Averaging 7.3 rebounds and 5.6 assists, for a total of 12.9, the distinction goes to Josh Giddey! The NBA’s record holder for the youngest player to get a triple-double, Giddey is further proof of the Thunder’s incredible depth. He’s the 4th(!) option in OKC’s starting lineup!

Do you think he’d be interested in a jersey swap with Gradey Dick?

Prediction

It didn’t take long for me to find a flaw in this new approach. Oddsmakers won’t release game spreads more than a day out because there are simply too many variables at play. While I cannot predict, accurately, if the Raptors can cover or not, I can still provide a final spread.

Toronto played valiantly in Oklahoma City last month, losing in double-overtime to the Thunder. The outcome for this matchup figures to be much different. Jalen Williams was out for the Thunder, while the Raptors will not have 5 or 6 of the 9 players who played in the first meeting.

If the spread for Sacramento is 9.5, the Thunder’s should be a little higher. Oklahoma City continues its outstanding campaign by covering the 11.5 spread and winning by 15 points.

March 23 @ Washington Wizards

Quick, name 5 Washington Wizards!

• Jordan Poole
• Bilal Coulibaly
• Deni Avdija
• Kyle Kuzma
• One of the Jones’ brothers

Washington has lost 20 of its last 22 games and has only won 5 games in 2024. Despite ending this moribund season with 11 of 15 games at home, you have to wonder how many they’ll actually win…..if any.

On Monday, Coulibaly was diagnosed with a wrist fracture, thus, cutting short his rookie campaign. Bilal was the only reason anyone would be interested in watching the Wizards play.

Remember what I wrote in the previous section about the NCAA Tournament? Feel free to switch back to March Madness instead of watching a game that will rack up the most “who is that guy” questions in a single broadcast!

Fun fact that may only interest me

What 3 years it’s been for Jordan Poole! In the 2021-22 season, Poole was dubbed the “third Splash Brother” as he led the league in free-throw shooting, while the Warriors won its 4th championship in 8 seasons.

His league-leading percentage from the charity stripe (92.48%) was especially noteworthy because of the amount (246) he made. Only 7 free throw champs have ever led the league with as high a percentage AND as many makes as Poole:

• Reggie Miller ‘04-’05 — 93.28%, 250 FTs
• Mark Price ‘91-’92 — 94.74%, 270 FTs
• Mark Price ‘92-’93 — 94.75%, 289 FTs
• Larry Bird ‘89-’90 — 93.00%, 319 FTs
• Reggie Miller ‘00-’01 — 92.82%, 323 FTs
• Bill Sharman ‘58-’59 — 93.19%, 342 FTs
• Peja Stojakovic ‘03-’04 — 92.71%, 394 FTs (60% more free throws made than Poole)

You haven’t been paying attention if you don’t know how I’m ending this section. Can we get Jordan and Gradey to do a jersey swap?

Prediction

The Raptors can do themselves a favour and hand a victory over to the Wizards. Toronto hasn’t been able to control much this season, but helping the Wizards “leap” the Pistons in the standings would benefit the Raptors, who hold Detroit’s 2nd-rounder.

Toronto is winless in 7 Saturday games this season. There’s no better chance than this to get the first Saturday win of the year. The Wizards’ injury report is looking as full as the Raptors.

With Washington doing everything possible to finish with the worst record (and best lottery odds), it’s looking more like a Raptors victory. Toronto covers the +1.5 spread by beating the Wizards by, at least, 5 points.

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Last Week: 3-1

Season Record: 44-24