The Rap-Up: How will the preseason hype translate into meaningful games?

For the first time since snow was on the ground, the Toronto Raptors will play meaningful games.

Welcome to another season of The Rap-Up!

The Toronto Raptors enter their 30th season with renewed hope. Will Scottie Barnes continue his ascent as the face of the franchise and improve on his All-Star campaign of last season? How does Immanuel Quickley handle his first full season manning the point and living up to the expectations of a hefty new contract? Will RJ Barrett’s promising start to his Raptors career and first Olympics experience propel him to even higher heights? Who will take the reins and lead Toronto’s new-look bench? After an inaugural season filled with roster turnover, how will Darko Rajakovic’s coaching principles translate on the court with lineup stability (finally)?

Champions are not crowned in October, but neither are draft lottery winners. The Raptors currently have the same record as the Boston Celtics (and Washington Wizards). Expectations may be low, but that only amplifies any victories along the way — on the scoreboard or in moral form.

Over the years, I’ve compiled a decent record predicting Raptor game outcomes (sometimes 6 days out). What you see below as not-so-humble bragging, I see as a blatant attempt to hit my word count quota!

2018 (post-All-Star break)

Predictions record: 15-5

Actual Raptors record: 14-6

2018-2019

Predictions record: 57-25

Actual Raptors record: 58-24

2019-2020

Predictions record: 50-22

Actual Raptors record: 53-19

2020-2021

Predictions record: 37-35

Actual Raptors record: 27-45

2021-2022

Predictions record: 49-33

Actual Raptors record: 48-34

2022-2023

Predictions record: 50-32

Actual Raptors record: 41-41

2023-2024

Predictions record: 53-29

Actual Raptors record: 25-57

Predicting the Raptors to lose this season is as low as low-hanging fruit can get. For this year, I’ll continue with a tweak I made at the end of last season — guessing how Toronto performs against the spread. As always, feel free to include your predictions in the comments.

Happy 30th Season, Raps fans!

October 23 vs Cleveland Cavaliers

It’s been a slow climb back to respectability for the Cleveland Cavaliers. After getting swept by the Golden State Warriors in the 2018 NBA Finals, LeBron James left for the Los Angeles Lakers and the Cavaliers unsurprisingly found themselves back in the lottery.

Similar to the previous times LeBron left Cleveland, the Cavs would miss the playoffs for 4 consecutive seasons. Returning to the postseason in 2023 (and again last season) should have been a positive sign for a franchise with as many championships as its opponents from the North. However, the team appears to have hit a ceiling — a tier or two below championship contention.

After bowing out of the playoffs in five games (again), and with no cap space to make any significant signings this summer (or next summer), Koby Altman and the Cavs front office made J.B. Bickerstaff the scapegoat and fired him after 6 years with the team (4.5 as Head Coach). Replacing Bickerstaff is Kenny Atkinson, who coached the Brooklyn Nets for 4 seasons, and only had 1 season above .500 during his tenure.

Fun fact that may only interest me

Last season, 24 players made at least 2 threes per game on 40% three-point shooting or better. Only 10 players achieved this in fewer than 30 minutes, and only one player did it in less than 20 minutes.

Sam Merrill made 2.3 threes per game, on 40.4% three-point shooting…..in only 17.5 minutes!

Prediction

The Raptors have won 9 of 11 home openers during the Masai Ujiri era— actually, make that 9 out of 10 (Tampa never counts). During that span, Toronto has defeated Cleveland twice to open the season. That should be a harder task this time around with no OG Anunoby to stop Donovan Mitchell. With Darius Garland always being a handful, it will be interesting to see how Quickley and Gradey Dick perform against Cleveland’s talented backcourt (and how soon Darko subs in Davion Mitchell and/or Jamal Shead).

The Raptors catch a break on the wing with Max Strus out for the next six weeks with an ankle injury. Scottie Barnes always brings a little extra juice when facing Evan Mobley. If the preseason has shown anything, Toronto’s bench should outplay Cleveland’s. Toronto opens the season on a positive note and covers the +5.5 spread.

October 25 vs Philadelphia 76ers

Last season was a disaster for the Philadelphia 76ers. Joel Embiid, the reigning MVP, missed over half the season with a foot injury. Nick Nurse, the preseason favourite for Coach of the Year, ended his first season 7 games worse than what Doc Rivers attained the previous year. Kyle Lowry and Nicolas Batum — combined 72 years of age — almost averaged 30 minutes each for the Sixers during the playoffs. A season that started with aspirations of winning at least two playoff rounds, ended with only two playoff wins.

Embiid’s injury limited him to five regular-season games after January (and zero in February or March). While that passes as a valid excuse for Philadelphia’s underperformance, Joel’s injury history will continue to be a factor moving forward.

Daryl Morey saw this offseason as an opportunity to pry open Philadelphia’s championship window a little wider. First, he swooped in and acquired the biggest fish in the pond by signing Paul George to a 4-year, $211 million deal. With a Big 3 of George, Embiid, and Tyrese Maxey, seemingly every free agent flocked to Philadelphia like moths to a flame: Caleb Martin, Andre Drummond, Eric Gordon, Kyle Lowry, Guerschon Yabusele, and Reggie Jackson.

If healthy, Philly has the best trio in the league and the right supporting pieces to carry them into June. That’s ‘If’ with a capital, bold, underlined ‘I’.

Fun fact that may only interest me

After Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, here are the next 4 “longest” tenured Sixers:

• Kelly Oubre — signed on September 26, 2023
• Ricky Council — signed two-way on October 25, 2023
• KJ Martin — traded to Philadelphia on November 1, 2023
• Kyle Lowry — signed on February 13, 2024

Prediction

The season hasn’t even tipped off and the Sixers are already dealing with injuries. George is dealing with a bone bruise and may not be ready for the start of the season. Even if he’s available, there’s no guarantee his health will be 100%. Still, the Raptors have no way of slowing down Embiid (few, if any do) or Maxey.

The warmth of a season-opening victory and an early visit from Lowry and Nurse quickly dampens as the Sixers easily cover the -7.5 spread.

October 26 @ Minnesota Timberwolves

The Paul George acquisition was primed to be the biggest transaction of the offseason….until three weeks ago when Minnesota and New York pulled off a blockbuster!

Tell me if this story sounds familiar. A team’s lottery pick pans out as well as any fan base would have hoped, with All-Star appearances and a foundational piece to build around. Unfortunately, the rest of the roster isn’t ideal and the team spends many seasons in the lottery. The roster finally rounds into form and the former lottery pick helps lead the only team he’s ever known to the Conference Finals. They ultimately lose but hope springs eternal……..until the home-grown product is traded!

To be clear, trading Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo is NOT the same as trading DeMar DeRozan and Jakob Poeltl for Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green. The trade didn’t bring Minnesota a former NBA Finals MVP. Instead, it helped the Timberwolves’ financial situation before the roster got too expensive next summer. It must sting for KAT to be traded away after finally experiencing postseason success.

Fun fact that may only interest me

Minnesota’s lottery pick, Rob Dillingham, is being groomed to replace Mike Conley as the Timberwolves’ Point Guard of the future.

When Conley entered the league in 2007, Dillingham was only 2 years old!

Prediction

Minnesota offers a unique matchup that few in the league can match. With Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle, and Naz Reid, the Raptors will have their hands full trying to protect (or score in) the paint. Oh, and there’s also Anthony Edwards to deal with. The rising star will be on a mission to prove he’s the best player in the world. Opponents like the Raptors, bereft of a premium wing stopper, will have Edwards itching to score on every offensive possession!

The Timberwolves’ home opener is a rousing success for the home crowd as Minnesota easily covers the 10.5 point spread.

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Last Season Record: 53-29 (9-5 against the spread)