The Rap-Up: Hope springs eternal as the season wraps up

It’s the season finale of The Rap-Up, so let’s acknowledge how promising this year has been and how exciting next year will be!

Every April, hope springs eternal for Toronto sports fans.

The Toronto Blue Jays kick off an MLB season with dreams of adding a third World Series championship. The Toronto Maple Leafs prepare for a deep playoff run, hoping to end a 50+ year Stanley Cup drought. Sure, both teams typically end their seasons without raising their respective championship trophies, but the hope is undeniable at this point in the calendar.

Fans of the Toronto Raptors have plenty of reasons to be hopeful for the team’s future.

For the first time in his tenure with the Toronto Raptors, Masai Ujiri admitted on Media Day before the season started that the team is going through a rebuild. The ‘r’ word often translates to multiple seasons in the lottery (i.e. ‘19-’24 Pistons, Process Sixers, present-day Wizards). As has always been the case with him, Masai defies conventional thinking on how to run an NBA franchise.

Almost every Raptor showed positive growth this season, helping accelerate the rebuild. Scottie Barnes grew as a leader and justified his position as the cornerstone of the franchise. Immanuel Quickley has shown flashes, more often than not, of the star point guard who will help lead the next era of Raptors basketball. IQ developed a great on-court chemistry with Jakob Poeltl. In fact, multiple teammates had great rapport with Poeltl, who was easily the second-most important Raptor this season. RJ Barrett validated the positive signs he displayed after Toronto acquired him last season.

Toronto endured several seasons of poor bench lineups and lacklustre young players. The proverbial chest was restored this year. Ochai Agbaji was one of the most improved three-point shooters. Gradey Dick started the season as a legitimate MIP candidate. Jamal Shead has already cemented himself as Toronto’s backup point guard of the present/future. Ja’Kobe Walter is capable of dropping 20 points and/or generating multiple steals on any given night. Jamison Battle is an absolute bucket.

Oh, and the front office already took care of Free Agency by picking up Brandon Ingram in ‘pre-agency’!

Regardless of where the Raptors end up after the Draft Lottery on May 12th, at least one rotation player is getting drafted in June. The team looks promising as is, and will look even better after the draft.

April 9 vs Charlotte Hornets

It’s the final home game of the season! I’ve been lucky enough to attend (and cover) several games this year and can confidently say that the Raptors did an excellent job of celebrating the franchise’s 30th anniversary with themed nights, a plethora of Raptor alumni, and special guests/performances. Tonight, the team will celebrate the fans! There will be a special tribute for Nav Bhatia, but the overarching theme is to thank all the fans.

Paying homage to the fans is a nice way of wrapping up a season full of losses and bereft of star players. This game will be missing 2-3 All-Stars (Lamelo Ball and Brandon Ingram; Scottie Barnes is questionable), 1-2 starters (Brandon Miller; Jakob Poeltl is questionable), and slew of solid reserves and rising prospects (Tre Mann, Grant Williams, Ochai Agbaji, Gradey Dick, Jamal Shead, and Ja’Kobe Walter).

Fun fact that may only interest me

The Charlotte Hornets are the only team in the bottom-10 that have not won the draft lottery this century. (That doesn’t count the Utah Jazz, who have never won the draft lottery)

With fairly similar odds — 10.61% vs this season’s likely odds of 14% — the Hornets’ only time winning the lottery was in 1991, when they finished with the 5th-worst record and eventually drafted Larry Johnson.

A lot of readers of this space were not born yet, but I was old lucky enough to watch him play. ‘Grandmama’ had Zion Williamson’s ferocity, but with a jumpshot. He was exciting to watch and played for the team with the best uniform. Johnson was a godsend to NBA merchandisers! If the lottery gods shine on Charlotte, this year’s draft will produce another hot commodity for Hornets jersey sales!

Prediction

Resting starters is one thing. Watching a perfectly healthy Jakob Poeltl and RJ Barrett on the bench is expected for a tanking team. Resting young prospects, though, is another. The Raptors have already resorted to resting Ochai Agbaji recently. Now, they’ve added Jamal Shead to the ‘DNP-Rest’ list.

Yet, that still may not be enough against a Hornets team that only has one victory (over the lowly Utah Jazz) over its last 10 games. Toronto wins its final home game and covers the -10.5 spread.

April 11 @ Dallas Mavericks

By the time this game tips off, the Mavericks may have already clinched a spot in the play-in. As of April 9th, Dallas has a three-game lead over Phoenix, with three games remaining for both. The Suns host the Oklahoma City Thunder later that night.

If you read last week’s article, you know I’ve been tracking Toronto’s ‘Flagg-ic number’, which is currently at one. Any victory by the San Antonio Spurs or loss by the Raptors would guarantee Toronto can fall no further than 7th in the reverse standings. Inversely, the Raptors are also one victory or one Brooklyn Nets loss away from guaranteeing they cannot rise to 6th in the reverse standings. We’ve seen the Nets enough this season to know that a season-ending, three-game win streak over the Atlanta Hawks, Minnesota Timberwolves, and New York Knicks is not going to happen!

With Dallas and the Sacramento Kings all but guaranteed to face each other in the 9-10 play-in game next week, you’d figure the Mavericks would rest their players and, ultimately, hurt Toronto’s plans of losing……but who exactly sits, outside of Anthony Davis?

Kyrie Irving and Olivier-Maxence Prosper are out for the season. Dante Exum is out with a hand injury and hasn’t played in three weeks. Jaden Hardy is dealing with a leg injury. As far as I know, Kessler Edwards, Kai Jones, and Brandon Williams have all used up their two-way games.

Fun fact that may only interest me

The Mavericks are 5-2 with Anthony Davis in the lineup. Considering all that’s been said in the aftermath of The Trade, you’d think the Mavericks were left with a roster full of G-Leaguers!

Dallas’ promising record with AD has kept alive my dream scenario: Lakers vs Mavericks in the play-in for the final playoff spot!

A victory over Sacramento in the first play-in game will take care of the Mavericks’ part of the deal. With 3 games remaining, the Lakers are in a logjam with five other teams for spots #3 through #8. Should the Lakers fall into the play-in spot AND lose the 7 vs 8 game, the entire sporting world will hold its collective breath as Luka Doncic faces the Dallas Mavericks in a do-or-die game!

Prediction

Davis needs as many reps as he can get before the postseason. With zero back-to-backs remaining on the schedule (the likely cause for him missing the Clippers game last week), I expect the Mavericks to field all their (healthy) starters. Dallas covers the -8.5 spread.

April 13 @ San Antonio Spurs

Welcome to the Ben Uzoh game!

In the final game of the 2011-12 season, the Raptors faced the New Jersey Nets. Both teams had identical 22-43 records in the strike-shortened season. A loss would raise the team to a tie for 5th in the draft standings, while a win would drop the team to a tie for 7th. Ben Uzoh, playing the 60th and, ultimately, final game of his NBA career, produced a 12-point, 12-assist, and 11-rebound triple-double. His efforts led the way for Toronto as the Raptors won by 31 points.

The Raptors would lose the 7th-place tiebreaking coin flip with Golden State. Instead of drafting Harrison Barnes, whom they wanted at #7, Toronto selected Terrence Ross at #8. More importantly, had the Raptors lost to New Jersey, drafting in 5th or 6th (a coin flip would have been needed to break another tie), Toronto would have selected the player that was drafted 6th — Damian Lillard.

It’s impossible to guess what would have happened after drafting Dame (Toronto probably would not have traded for Kyle Lowry after drafting Ross), but the implications of that final regular-season game loomed large.

If the Spurs or Raptors cannot take care of business before this game, 7th place in the draft lottery standings will be up for grabs!

Fun fact that may only interest me

Stephon Castle is the odds-on favourite to capture this season’s Rookie of the Year award. Victor Wembanyama was last season’s unanimous Rookie of the Year winner.

No team in NBA history has ever won the Rookie of the Year three seasons in a row.

The Spurs have the 8th-best odds to Capture the Flagg. The lottery gods have been very kind to San Antonio when a generational big is the consensus #1 overall pick!

Prediction

Regardless of how the games play out leading to this, San Antonio has been competitive enough to be the favourite to win. Who knows what will happen with Chris Paul after this game. Or Chris Boucher. Or Garrett Temple. The winds of change are blowing and a crop of exciting rookies will further cramp the tight quarters that are NBA rosters. But before we think about what the offseason brings, let’s wrap up game #82. The Spurs end their season on a high note with a victory and covering the -5.5 spread.

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Last Week’s Record: 4-0

Season Record: 35-44