Tanking 101: So you want the Toronto Raptors to tank, welcome!

Tanking is confusing, and you’re not alone if you don’t know what is going on! Turns out a handful of ping pong balls are holding our fragile mental state together…

It’s been an interesting season for the Toronto Raptors, to say the least. As we trek on in the final third of the 2024-25 season, we are getting to the point where every win — but more important, every loss — really matters.

“Tanking” is really precarious idea in NBA Basketball. Lose now, win at the draft. Yet, it has to be done so strategically that no one can truly prove you’re tanking. Also, even when you tank as hard as you can, the odds aren’t spectacular when it comes to getting the no.1 pick in the draft.

Let’s take the Raptors, for instance. Right now they have the 5th best draft odds in the NBA, with a record of 18-40. That means they have a 42.1% chance at getting a top-4 draft pick, and a 10.5% chance of getting the no.1 overall pick. The Washington Wizards currently have the worst record in the NBA, and therefore the best draft odds. Even so, they still only have 52.1% chance of getting a top-4 pick, and a 14% chance of getting the no.1 pick, at the moment. It really is all up to the lottery ball gods.

In simple terms, the worse your season record, the better your odds — which is why fans of teams that are “tanking” want them to lose so badly. Yet, even when you lose the most, there is no guarantee you get a top-pick.

So here we are in (nearly) March, 18-40 for Toronto and it’s still not good enough to get into that top-3 odds conversation. It does not help that Toronto also has one of the easiest schedules to end the season in comparison to other teams, which leads to another factor — players generally don’t want to tank. They want to win. If they can, they will.

We played some really good games. We had one game that was really bad in Boston. But other than that, I think that we’re excited when we play against teams and players like this. You can see the guys, they’re even more locked in than usual. They really want to go out there. – Darko Rajakovic

Tanking isn’t something that is executed by the players, because they have the mentality of going out on the court and trying to win. They want to get better, they want to be good. They are thinking of the present, not the future.

It’s all a very intricate balance.

When you look at a team like [Boston], they do a really good job of exposing some of your weaknesses. There is a lot of stuff for you to take into account when you’re preparing scouting. — Darko Rajakovic

Plus, the development of the team in a year like this matters too. You want Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett to build chemistry. You want the rookies to get better, and players like Gradey Dick and Ochai Agbaji to approve. So, some wins need to happen.

The Raptors lost against the Boston Celtics on Tuesday, in pretty much a wire to wire loss — but they also won against the reigning NBA Champions earlier in the season.

They’re looking forward with excitement to play the best team, champion of the NBA last season. So there is a lot of motivation there, and that brings a lot of alertness and energy in the game that’s needed to play against a team like that. – Darko Rajakovic

Toronto also has wins against the Golden State Warriors, Orlando Magic, LA Clippers and Phoenix Suns, and went on a winning streak in early 2025 that had many pro-tankers scratching their heads in confusion.

While no one can fumble this NBA season like Nico Harrison fumbled with trading Luka from the Dallas Mavericks — being in a tanking position and then making the play-in would come close.

So, are they tanking? The easy answer is yes. The moves the front office has made, the way injury protocol is being administered (so like, they are not rushing anyone back). The point they are at in their rebuild. The way Bobby Webster emphasized the upcoming draft after the trade deadline. It all points towards the desire to get as high in the draft as possible.

The more complicated answer is yes, but don’t expect them to have the overall best odds in the draft. Scottie, IQ and Barrett are going to get time to build some chemistry, they are playing teams worse than them, and wins are going to happen.

Where do the Raptors go from here? Well, once the regular season is over (barring an unlikely push into the NBA play-in tournament), all attention turns to the draft lottery. That happens in May (they have not announced the date yet).

Once the order of the draft is finalized, the mocking, scouting, and theorizing can begin. If the Raptors get the no.1 pick (manifesting here), the choice seems pretty easy. You draft Cooper Flagg out of Duke — who is by far the best prospect in the class. Once you start getting farther up into the draft, the choices can vary. Plus, the Raptors have an interesting history in the draft, which honestly has been trending upward in terms of working out in recent years — despite keeping everyone on their toes.

The 2025 draft is on June 25-26, as the NBA does the two-day format for the second year. Once we draft our new players, they will head to Summer League and likely travel to a few destinations for team camps like Darko and the coaching staff planned last year.

The goal is that next NBA season the Raptors can be competitive. Brandon Ingram is healthy, and he along with the new lottery pick are integrated into the system with Scottie Barnes. The goal is to be a playoff team NEXT season. Patience now, good times ahead.

It took 24 years for the Raptors to get their first NBA title, but the goal is that it doesn’t take another 24 to get their second. For now though, it will be nice to be competitive again.