How many times out of 10 can the Toronto Raptors roll a top NBA Draft pick? How possible is it for them to draft Cooper Flagg?
Cooper Flagg has officially declared for the NBA Draft. The projected No. 1 overall pick announced on his social media Monday morning that he will officially be heading to the NBA. Some of us (me) saw that announcement and immediately opened tankathon to roll the dice a few times.
The Toronto Raptors ended the season with the 7th best draft odds in the NBA. That means they have a 31.9% chance of getting a top-4 pick in the draft, and a 7.5% chance of securing the No. 1 overall pick — otherwise known as Cooper Flagg.
It’s really up to chance at this point. We can pray to the basketball gods to have mercy on Canada, but it’s really four little ping pong balls that determine fate. Though the lottery only happens once, let’s spin the tankathon wheel 10 times to see where the Raptors end up:
Spin #1:
- Pick 1: New Orleans Pelicans
- Pick 2: Houston Rockets (via Phoenix)
- Pick 3: Washington Wizards
- Pick 4: Utah Jazz
…
- Pick 8: Toronto Raptors
Spin #2:
- Pick 1: New Orleans Pelicans
- Pick 2: San Antonio Spurs
- Pick 3: Utah Jazz
- Pick 4: Philadelphia 76ers
…
- Pick 8: Toronto Raptors
Spin #3:
- Pick 1: Charlotte Hornets
- Pick 2: Washington Wizards
- Pick 3: Portland Trail Blazers
- Pick 4: Brooklyn Nets
…
- Pick 8: Toronto Raptors
Spin #4:
- Pick 1: Dallas Mavericks
- Pick 2: Brooklyn Nets
- Pick 3: Washington Wizards
- Pick 4: San Antonio Spurs
…
- Pick 9: Toronto Raptors
Spin #5:
- Pick 1: Dallas Mavericks
- Pick 2: Charlotte Hornets
- Pick 3: Washington Wizards
- Pick 4: Utah Jazz
…
- Pick 8: Toronto Raptors
(This isn’t going well so far!!)
Spin #6:
- Pick 1: Utah Jazz
- Pick 2: New Orleans Pelicans
- Pick 3: Philadelphia 76ers
- Pick 4: Charlotte Hornets
…
- Pick 7: Toronto Raptors
Spin #7:
- Pick 1: San Antonio Spurs
- Pick 2: Toronto Raptors (FINALLY)
- Pick 3: Portland Trail Blazers
- Pick 4: Utah Jazz
Spin #8:
- Pick 1: Charlotte Hornets
- Pick 2: Washington Wizards
- Pick 3: Utah Jazz
- Pick 4: Portland Trail Blazers
…
- Pick 8: Toronto Raptors
Spin #9:
- Pick 1: Utah Jazz
- Pick 2: Toronto Raptors
- Pick 3: Portland Trail Blazers
- Pick 4: New Orleans Pelicans
Spin #10:
- Pick 1: Brooklyn Nets
- Pick 2: Philadelphia 76ers
- Pick 3: Washington Wizards
- Pick 4: San Antonio Spurs
…
- Pick 8: Toronto Raptors
So that was… disappointing. Out of 10 spins, the Raptors only hopped up into the top-4 twice, both at the second pick. They dropped to the No. 8 pick six times, the No. 9 pick once, and stayed on-par at No. 7 once. Hate that!
For fun, I reset the system and rolled another five times, why not? In those five rolls, the Raptors landed 7th, 8th, 7th, 1st (!!!!!!!!!), and 8th.
Then I reset it again. Five more rolls: 7th, 8th, 8th, 9th, 9th. Ouch.
This time I exited out of the page, opened a new window, and reset the system a few times before rolling five more times: 8th, 8th, 8th, 4th, 8th.
25 tankathon rolls total. The breakdown ended up being 14 No.8 picks, four No. 7 picks, three No. 9 picks, two No. 2 picks, one No.4 pick and most importantly ONE No. 1 pick. Surprisingly not a single No. 3, No. 5 or No. 6 pick in 25 rolls.
The takeaway? It only takes one shot to get the No. 1 pick, but also the Raptors are more likely to land in the 7-9 range. My other takeaway is that if Dallas somehow jumps up into the top picks after not only getting Paige Bueckers No. 1 overall in the WNBA draft but also after the incredibly stupid season they had… I am going to be big mad.
Do you think the Raptors could leap up into the top-picks? Have we given enough to the hoop gods to be rewarded for out patience? I guess we will see in just a few short weeks.
For fun, three more rolls: 7th, 3rd, 9th.