Raptors Draft Watch: With the season wrapped, focus turns to NBA Draft

The Raptors’ 2024-25 season is over and they will hit the draft season early, with a chance to add another high-calibre talent in this coming draft. 

Now that the Toronto Raptors’ 2024-25 season is over, the attention shifts towards the upcoming NBA draft. Unlike the previous season, the’ 24-25 campaign was not a disaster. Still, they find themselves in familiar territory: Not in the playoffs or the play-ins, but not bad enough to secure max Ping-Pong balls.

Overall talent was a concern heading into last year’s draft, and the Raptors’ front office has done a commendable job revamping the roster by acquiring young rotation players to strengthen the team. Currently holding the 7th best odds, the Raptors can advance into the top four picks, where the top-tier prospects are found. Noteworthy among these prospects is Cooper Flagg, as this draft cycle has been characterized as “Capture the Flagg” tank season. However, ending up with either Dylan Harper or Ace Bailey doesn’t feel like a consolation prize.

Even with the addition of Brandon Ingram, it would be in the Raptors’ best interest to get one of the top picks, as you could never have enough top-tier talent. Just look at how ridiculous the Los Angeles Lakers are, stealing Luka Doncic from the Dallas Mavericks for Anthony Davis, with joints being held in place by duct tape.

Current Roster

President Masai Ujiri and GM Bobby Webster enter the draft season with 13 players on standard contracts, with only Chris Boucher and Garrett Temple hitting free agency this summer. Coach Darko Rajakovic stapled Boucher on the bench at every opportunity he got over the past two seasons, except for the “Trade Deadline Showcase Special” minutes that he got. It’s doubtful for the Raptors to bring him back. On the other hand, Temple should have a spot on the Raptors’ 2nd row as an assistant coach, should he decide to hang it up.

The Raptors’ depth chart looks like this:

Guards: Immanuel Quickley, Gradey Dick, Ja’Kobe Walter, Jamal Shead, AJ Lawson*, Jared Rhoden+

Wings: Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Ochai Agbaji, Jonathan Mogbo, Jamison Battle

Bigs: Jakob Poeltl, Colin Castleton*, Ulrich Chomche+

(AJ Lawson and Colin Castleton are both on a “#proveem” deal to fight for their roster spot next season, while Jared Rhoden and Ulrich Chomche are on a Two-Way Contract)

It’s worth noting that the Raptors are loaded with wings, and between Quickley, Shead, Barnes, and coach Rajakovic’s offense that’s less dependent on point guard play, the team’s all set at the point guard spot. The Raptors are thin in the middle, with Jakob Poeltl, the only reliable big player on the team, as Ulrich Chomche’s still a project with a capital “P.”

Shoddy Tank Job

The Raptors came out of the gate this season like a fawn struggling to find its balance and faceplanting a couple of times, leading to a 7-26 record at the end of the calendar year. The futility also positioned them at the thick of the tank race, along with the Washington Wizards, Utah Jazz, and the New Orleans Pelicans.The schedule became favourable, but to the Raptors’ credit, things clicked for them, as they started playing better and harder – looking more and more like an NBA team coached by an NBA coach. Unfortunately, the team did not want any part of the play-in action and prioritized “development” over winning, which should directly correlate to a higher chance of losing games and, thus, more Ping-Pong balls.

However, despite some blatant moves, the “tank job” was not appropriately executed, like giving key players paid time off or pulling key players early in the fourth. Some moves are subtle enough, like taking out key players (i.e. Barnes and Quickley) at the same time, leaving an all-bench/3rd stringers for an extended period through some pockets of the game.Perhaps the Raptors didn’t raise the white flag early enough. It’s hard to blame the team – they needed a platform to get Quickley back into game shape. Perhaps they should have shut Boucher down much earlier, after a few excellent showcase games.

However, the most mind-boggling decision-making from the coaching and front office standpoint is allowing players who are unlikely to be part of the team’s future cook to help secure an unnecessary win. Teams like Utah, Charlotte, and Washington had been more creative in giving developmental reps to their youngsters, yet held on to the “L” at the end of the game.

Hopefully, AJ Lawson and Jaren Rhoden will be part of the team next season, as they both had breakout games for the Raptors that led to some wins. Still, players like Colin Castleton helped the Raptors win a few games during his brief stint as a Raptor. In fact, he’s 5-5 as a Raptor. Then we have Orlando Robinson, who was played like he’s pegged as a future 3rd string big. He’s had some outstanding games for the Raptors, and he’s probably the only Raptor with a winning record, with an 18-17 record when he saw the floor this season.

Pick Odds

Despite not finishing with a top 4 draft odds, the Raptors have a chance to move up. Let’s dream about these odds:

– 1st overall: 7.5%

– 2nd overall: 7.8%

– 3rd overall: 8.1%

– 4th overall: 8.5%

The only downside is that if one of the teams from the 8-14th spots moves into the top four, the Raptors will likely slide down to the 8th spot. Here are the remaining odds for the Raptors leading to the lottery:

– 7th overall: 19.7%

– 8th overall: 34.1%

– 9th overall: 12.9%

– 10th overall: 1.3%

– 11th overall: please, no

Recent Pick History

Since the NBA significantly tweaked the odds for the 2019 draft cycle, only three pre-lottery draft positions have won the #1 overall pick. The ideal spot is at the 2nd or 3rd best odds, where those spots got the #1 overall pick twice over the last six draft cycles.

Over the last six draft cycles, the team with the worst record hasn’t yielded tank-worthy results, missing out on the 1st overall pick and ending up outside of the top 4 half the time. The 2nd best lottery odds seem to be the most profitable in the top four, taking two 1sts, one 2nd, and one 4th overall pick. The Raptors’ current pre-lottery position, 7th overall, has yielded a 1st overall pick (2019 – Zion Williamson) and three 4th overall picks, including some guy named Scottie Barnes.

Perhaps the Raptors’ front office made a strategic decision to end up with the 7th best odds? Who knows. At least we should just be happy that we’re not conveying a 1st round pick to San Antonio.