Raptors Draft Watch: Carlton Carrington is an overlooked lottery prospect

Could Bub Carrington be the GG Jackson of this draft? An overlooked lottery prosect that “reclassified” and entered the draft early?

Up next on our first-round prospect spotlight is Carlton “Bub” Carrington. A skilled guard from Pittsburgh who came out of nowhere as a freshman, debuting with a bang, and solidified his draft stock with a valiant final game against UNC Tar Heels.

Why Carlton?

Carlton Carrington was not one of the household names at the NCAA level to start the season, and that’s understandable. He’s a four-star recruit, barely cracking the top 100 prospects on most high school rankings, and he played at a conference where the blue bloods have a stranglehold.

A historic college debut put the league (and draft pundits) on notice, having a historic triple-double of 18 points, 12 boards, and 10 dimes while making four trifectas. That’s an impressive debut at any age, showcasing lead guard playmaking and go-to guy scoring. That’s not bad for someone who was barely an 18-year-old kid playing his first collegiate game.

Carrington looked comfortable as the Panthers’ lead guard, showcasing his abilities to run the offense while leveraging his self-creation and shot-making. He’s really comfortable in the PnR situation, which is a must for ball handlers entering the NBA. He snakes the screen well and stays poised in the pocket, reading the defense and the gaps to get his shot up.

Carrington relies a lot on his handle, combining his hesi and misdirection, change of pace, and deceleration to either get by his defender or pull up for a jumper. He can pull up almost anywhere and is quite capable of making catch-and-shoot reps. He fares well as a table-setter of their offense and has shown more than enough in touching the paint and finding his teammates in the process.

Carrington’s a smooth scorer and skill-based player. Given his age—the second youngest player in this draft—he could very well be this year’s GG Jackson, a prospect outside of the lottery who entered the draft early but could quickly develop into a lottery-level talent.

Mock Drafts

(As of June 20, 2024)

• ESPN: 20 (Cleveland Cavaliers)
• NBADraft.NET: 12 (Oklahoma City Thunder)
• Tankathon: 22 (Phoenix Suns)
• The Ringer: 20 (Cleveland Cavaliers)
• No Ceilings: 20 (Cleveland Cavaliers)
• NBA Draft Room: 23 (Milwaukee Bucks)
• The Athletic: 12 (Oklahoma City Thunder)
• Bleacher Report: 20 (Cleveland Cavaliers)
• SB Nation: 16 (Philadelphia 76ers)
• For The Win: 16 (Philadelphia 76ers)
• CBS (Boone): 21 (New Orleans Pelicans)
• CBS (Parrish): 27 (Minnesota Timberwolves)
• CBS (Finkelstein): 15 (Miami Heat)
• CBS (Cobb): 23 (Milwaukee Bucks)
• CBS (Branham): 18 (Orlando Magic)
• CBS (Ward-Henninger): 21 (New Orleans Pelicans)
• CBS (Salerno): 19 (Toronto Raptors)

Areas of Concern

Carrington needs to get stronger, as expected from someone young who is still growing into his body. Right now, he struggles to absorb contact driving to the basket. Despite having good size and length as a point guard, he’s more of a below-the-rim finisher, as he doesn’t appear to have the vertical athleticism some bouncier guards have. Carrington struggles to get past his defenders as he doesn’t have a quick first step or the jets to launch to the basket if he gets the runway.

Carrington has a higher chance of getting stopped if he doesn’t get to his pullup or find an open teammate. Sometimes, he gets caught in no man’s land without a plan B because he cannot get past his defender. His shooting percentages aren’t pretty, but his inefficiency is part youth/inexperience, part having to play hero ball, and part having to diffuse a grenade.

Defensively, Carrington is more of an effort defender and has shown defensive mistakes, but not because he needed to give an effort. He still needs to be fundamentally polished as a defender, which showed throughout the season.

Raptors Fit

Carrington should help solidify the point guard position. This position hasn’t enjoyed consistent stability for the entire game since the GROAT left. He should easily slot in as either the backup or third guard on the roster, switchable between lead or combo guard if he’s on the floor with Immanuel Quickley or Scottie Barnes. His size and ability to score make him a cheap replacement value for Gary Trent Jr., and he comes in with way more utility offensively.

In the worst-case scenario, if things don’t pan out with Quickley, Carrington could be a good point guard in the waiting stage for a rookie contract. Quickley and Carrington sharing the court together isn’t ideal defensively, especially if Carrington’s defense doesn’t improve any time soon. The Raptors need more players that can dribble/pass/shoot, and he can do that. However, there’s a potential for Carrington to start the season with the Raptors 905, as he’ll need developmental focus on strength and conditioning, playmaking, and running the team as the lead guard in Mississauga.