Opinion: Raptors Fans Should Be Hopeful For The Team’s Future

After the moves made at the deadline and over the last two months, Raptors fans finally understand management’s direction and have a reason to be hopeful.

There’s a team building ideology that SDPN has coined and I think perfectly applies to North American professional team sports. To keep a fanbase engaged, teams must sell one of two things through the roster moves they make: winning, or hope.

From 2015 to 2020, the Toronto Raptors sold winning. Regular season success, regularly having home court advantage in the playoffs, an Eastern Conference Finals appearance, and eventually, an NBA Championship.

The 2020-21 Tampa season changed things, when instead of winning, the Raptors sold hope. The hope of returning to their rightful home at Scotiabank Arena, the hope of fans being able to return to watch their favourite team play, and the hope of landing a top draft pick to help the team moving forward.

That hope carried over in 2021-22, where it was combined with a little bit of winning. The team returned home, Scottie Barnes exceeded expectations and won Rookie of the Year, and the team was comfortably in the playoffs as the fifth seed in the East, despite a shorter than hoped-for playoff run.

From the beginning of last season, it’s been unclear what the Toronto Raptors have been trying to sell. While they may have attempted to sell winning, it sure wasn’t going well. Toronto finished as the ninth seed in the East with a .500 record and traded a first-round pick to re-acquire Jakob Poeltl when the team wasn’t even guaranteed a spot in the play-in, let alone the playoffs. There wasn’t much hope for the future and certainly not a lot of winning as they blew a late lead to lose their play-in game.

Losing Fred VanVleet and letting go of Nick Nurse certainly didn’t help either department, as the team floundered to begin this season and seemed noncommittal to moving on from pending free agents in Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby.

However, in the past six weeks, Raptors management seems to have made up their mind and shown their cards. Enough trying to win, the roster they had assembled was simply not good enough to do so. Fans were calling for a rebuild, they would accept a losing team as long as they understood there was a long-term vision committed to winning. They were fed up with the product they were getting and wanted to hope that things would turn around.

They’ve got exactly what they asked for, and I believe they should be excited about it. Only taking into consideration the assets they currently have, I’ll breakdown exactly why I’m hopeful for the Raptors’ near future.

Immanuel Quickley

My initial reaction to the OG Anunoby trade was pure excitement for acquiring Immanuel Quickley. A young primary ball handler that would add much needed guard play to this roster and was pushing for more minutes that simply weren’t available in New York, IQ was a perfect fit.

Still not turning 25 until June, Quickley will likely be signed long-term to play as Toronto’s starting point-guard for years to come. His production to this point in his career has been somewhat similar to the guard selected four spots in front of him in the 2020 NBA Draft, Tyrese Maxey.

Through their first few seasons of their careers, their per-36 production was fairly similar, though their roles greatly differed. Maxey has started the vast majority of his games since the end of his rookie season, whereas Quickley has been used in a sixth-man role most of his career in New York.

Now thrust into a starting, lead-guard role, Quickley has the opportunity take that next step himself. By no means am I saying that the Raptors guard will become an All-Star as quickly (haha get it) as Maxey has, but seeing a player with a similar archetype have this much success in the same role is very encouraging for his development.

Since becoming a Raptor, Quickley’s usage rate has only increased by 0.6%, but has seen his assist-percentage skyrocket by nearly 11%, leaving him with a career high 26% in his short time in Toronto. What has steeply declined is his points-per-shot-attempt, dropping to a career low and leaving him in only the 32nd-percentile amongst point guards this season.

What does all that mean? Basically, Quickley only has the ball in his hands slightly more than he did in New York, and is producing vastly more assists while his shot efficiency has gone done. His three point-percentage has actually increased, while his efficiency from floater-range has dropped precipitously, down from 58.6% in New York to 31% with Toronto.

The lack of a lob threat likely affects his floater efficiency as well, so if the Raptors are able to construct the roster to fit Quickley’s play-style, the young guard will have every opportunity to flourish as one of the league’s better starting point guards.

RJ Barrett

Honestly, I wasn’t sold on the idea of acquiring RJ Barrett at first, but the Canadian wing has done his best to prove me wrong. Still only 23 years old, Barrett has shown some flashes of the scoring prowess that elevated him to the third overall pick in the 2019 NBA Draft. While I certainly don’t expect him to become a superstar, Barrett has shown the ability to take over games when he gets hot and should prove to be a solid second or third option scoring wise as he continues to improve his game.

Basically the complete opposite effect that the trade has had on Quickley, Barrett’s usage rate in Toronto has decreased while his points-per-shot-attempt has skyrocketed. He’s scoring the ball more efficiently from all three-levels compared to his time in New York this season.

Barrett has fit in well alongside Scottie Barnes, and the pair seem to be the main components of what the Raptors are building going forward. Back in his hometown, under the Raptors development staff and re-united with his father’s longtime friend in Masai Ujiri, the stars seem to be aligning for Barrett and I’m very optimistic for this future development in Toronto.

Gradey Dick

At the time of this article on February 14th, Gradey Dick is coming off of the best game of his young NBA career. Though he did post 22 points against New Orleans just over a week ago, Dick shot 7/10 from the field and 4/5 from three against San Antonio for 18 points.

The 13th overall pick in this past summer’s NBA Draft hasn’t had the rookie season Raptors fans were hoping for after his spectacle of a draft outfit, but he has been coming into his own as of late.

Gradey’s role with the Raptors is finally evolving as he seems to be finding his stride and confidence, playing for 19+ minutes in eight of his 12 appearances since getting back into the lineup full-time on January 20th.

The 6’8” wing has been extremely hot in his last five games, showing his prowess as a three-point specialist. In that range, Dick is shooting just under 58% from deep and 60% on two-pointers, though he averages more three-point attempts than any other type of shot.

Continuing to develop the other aspects of Gradey’s game combined with his height and wingspan could allow him to flourish into not only one of the best three-point shooters in the league, but potentially one of the best pure scorers. With Gary Trent Jr. likely leaving the team in free agency, Gradey should see an increased role moving forward and could likely carve himself into a scoring sixth-man role as early as next season.

Siakam Trade Return

Many were disappointed with the Pascal Siakam trade, and I think that’s deserved, but there’s still hope to be gleaned from it.

Bruce Brown was one of the most important players on a championship team, and while Masai Ujiri and Bobby Webster were not able to find a suitable trade partner for him at this year’s trade deadline, there is always the opportunity to move him in the summer or opt-in to his team option for next season and try again. Who knows, Brown could even prove useful for the Raptors, who may want to keep him depending on how next season goes. Either way, they acquired either a useful player as they look to build, or a piece that can be moved for more future assets.

Jordan Nwora has shown flashes of brilliance in his short time in Toronto so far. Despite only being 25, he most likely is what he is, which is an excellent shooter and scoring option off the bench. Similarly to Brown, Nwora possesses skills that championship level teams covet. He could play that role for the Raptors as they look to develop him, or also be moved for some more draft picks.

Kelly Olynyk & Ochai Agbaji

Speaking of draft picks, the Raptors actually traded a first round pick away for the third trade deadline in a row. While the online reaction would have you thinking it was the Raptors own pick with how negative the discourse surrounding the deal was, I’m actually a huge fan of the move.

The 2024 first is heavily protected, and actually originated from the Utah Jazz. There are a dozen stipulations as this is the third deal it’s been involved in, but the long story short is that it will be the least favourable of Utah, Houston, the LA Clippers or Oklahoma City. The Clippers and Thunder are both top-5 teams in the NBA this season, meaning this pick is likely 28th if not later.

The counterargument here is that there are plenty of late first-round picks that have become NBA superstars. Pascal Siakam went 27th, Jimmy Butler and Desmond Bane went 30th, Nikola Jokic, Draymond Green and Manu Ginobli were 2nd round picks.

What fails to come up in that conversation, however, is that Toronto also holds Detroit’s 2nd round pick, which if it doesn’t end up at 31st overall will still fall in the top-35.

This allowed the Raptors to take a swing and acquire two rotational pieces for a pick that more-often than not does not materialize into a full-time NBA player. In Kelly Olynyk, they acquire another Canadian, homegrown talent, but one with 11 years of NBA experience.

Olynyk is a free agent at the end of the season, but by all accounts, the Raptors are already interested in extending him. The 6’11” centre provides much needed size at the position that is lacking depth behind Jakob Poeltl, and plays a scoring big man role off the bench, shooting 42% from three this season. Toronto has not had a player of his caliber in this role since Chris Boucher’s 2021 Tampa season, and before that, Serge Ibaka in 2020. Olynyk likely sticks around as a veteran presence for a young, building team, where he will either aid in seeing them back into the playoffs or could be flipped for more assets if the tank continues.

Ochai Agabji is the main piece in this trade to me, though he does have major boom-or-bust potential. The 14th overall pick in 2022, Agbaji won the NCAA Men’s National Championship with Kansas, winning Most Outstanding Player of the college basketball playoffs. With absolutely no disrespect to this player, but players like Jimmer Fredette demonstrate how college basketball success does not directly translate into NBA success. Unfortunately, Agbaji has been lumped into this same group throughout his first two NBA seasons, having a decent-yet-underwhelming rookie season and taking a step back in this, his sophomore year.

However, the Raptors development staff has proven to be some of the best in the league. Whether it was OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, Normal Powell, Fred VanVleet, Chris Boucher, Scottie Barnes’ shooting ability or any other example that could be provided, Toronto is able to develop players past what their expectations may have been. Agbaji is a strong wing, at 6’5” and 215 pounds. Take one look at him and you’ll wonder whether you’re looking at an NBA player or a boxer in the middle of his prime.

Although he’s yet to knock down a three as a Raptor, his eight attempts across two games and 35% clip last season show there’s potential to be a better-than-average shooter from deep. Agbaji also uses his size and strength to get to the rim, whether it’s on a drive with the ball in his hands or demonstrating his impressive athleticism by catching lobs.

Essentially what I’m getting at here is that Agabji is an extremely raw talent that needs to be refined, but has all the tools to become a dominant scoring force. Acquiring a player with his skillset for a likely 28th overall pick shows the confidence the Raptors have in their development ability, essentially taking a page out of Fred VanVleet’s book and betting on themselves. While he won’t likely see much improvement for the remainder of this season, after working with Toronto’s development staff over the off-season and remaining two seasons on his rookie deal after that, I would bet on Agbaji becoming a full-time rotational player and is extended as a Raptor.

Draft Picks

Now, for the biggest aspect of rebuilding a team, the draft picks. The biggest issue surrounding Toronto’s draft pick assets, is the state of their own first round pick this spring. Thanks to the Jakob Poeltl trade the Raptors technically traded the pick away, though it was top-6 protected for three years. What that means is that if the pick falls within the top six selections at the 2024 NBA Draft, Toronto keeps the pick and it will instead transfer to 2025 where it is once again top-6 protected and so forth.

Currently, the Raptors sit seventh last in the NBA. Despite what I just wrote about why fans should be hopeful that the team will likely improve soon, they certainly committed to the tank this season. Heading into their matchup against Indiana, Toronto is 4-14 in their last 18 games. Sitting a game up on Memphis and 2.5 games up on Portland, the Raptors will need to finish out the season the way they’ve been playing recently if they hope to keep their own pick this season.

While the tank will surely make fans sweat as they hope Toronto retains their pick, the payoff if they do so would be huge. The coverage around this year’s draft hasn’t been very hyped, as it doesn’t look to boast a true, bonafide superstar that we saw in recent years with Victor Wembanyama. However, adding a top-6 pick even in a down year will greatly aid the Raptors as they look to build back up to playoff contention.

Toronto also acquired Indiana’s first round pick this year, who currently sits in the last playoff spot in the East. Likely falling between 16th and 20th, it gives Toronto another shot at picking up a potential impact player. Almost every year there appears to be a player who falls out of the lottery for no obvious reason, similar to Cam Whitmore this past draft, and the Raptors now sit in a prime position to scoop up anyone who may fall.

Indiana also sent along their first round pick in 2026 in the Siakam deal. While it’s obviously too far out to project where either team may be two seasons from now, adding future picks to the repertoire allows the Raptors to add more assets to trades as they look to build and acquire players, or serves as something to fall back on if coming out of the rebuild doesn’t go as planned. Lastly, it’s also somewhat of a security blanket in case the pick sent to San Antonio does convey in either of the next three seasons.

Last Thoughts

For a team that’s been in playoff contention for most of the past decade, it may be somewhat of a hard switch to all of a sudden flip around and embrace a rebuild, but I’ve found plenty of reasons to. While we all hope to see the Raptors turn it around sooner rather than later, it will also be weird to somewhat cheer for them to lose.

Obviously, losing can create bad habits and culture, neither of which anyone wants to see develop within this roster. However, it also sets the team up for a better future, and is the clear direction that management is currently taking the team.

If there’s one thing that’s true in the NBA, it’s that individual success does not always translate into team success. Think of how Shai Gilgeous-Alexander developed on the Oklahoma City Thunder that finished fourth last in back to back seasons in 2021 and 2022. That seems to be the plan in Toronto, as the team hopes to set up its core to continue to play good basketball, develop individually and as a team, but still lose games the remainder of this season.

In there lies the hope that I have for the future of Raptors basketball, the individual development of the young core and the recent acquisitions that will hopefully lead to team success in the near future. For now, I’ll cheer for Scottie Barnes, Gradey Dick, RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley, but maybe not for the team to score more points than their opponent. The remainder of the season may be a tough stretch to watch and support, but remember, there is a light at the end of the tunnel and hope to be found nonetheless.

In Masai we trust.