After weeks of speculation about Mitch Marner’s future with the Toronto Maple Leafs, things seem to have calmed down with what appeared to be the prime window to executing the move has long passed without any indication that one was close.
Everyone knew going into the offseason that pulling off a move of this magnitude would not be easy because the NMC in Marner’s contract allows him to have a say in the process, forcing Brad Treliving to treat the situation carefully. Although the GM has expressed how he views Marner as a player, he has not made any definitive proclamation that they are committed to getting an extension done but won’t move him just for the sake of it. By contrast, Marner has stated publically his desire to stay in Toronto past this coming campaign and the noise surrounding his camp that they won’t entertain an extension or a move.
As a result, the blockbuster move has yet to come to fruition which has left many feeling frustrated given that upper management alluded to the possibility of big changes during the end-of-season pressers. While it is still possible that this can get done before the start of training camp, the more time elapses without any indication that this trade can get done the more likely the outcome is Marner remaining in Toronto to play out the final year.
That is until the St. Louis Blues announced on Tuesday that veteran defenceman Torey Krug would be out indefinitely with pre-arthritic issues in his ankles and could be out for the 2024-25 season.
Torey Krug has been diagnosed with pre-arthritic changes in his left ankle and will be re-evaluated in 6-8 weeks.
If surgery is necessary, Krug would miss the entire 2024-25 season. #stlblues
DETAILS ➡️ https://t.co/PFUQxTekmw https://t.co/PFUQxTekmw
— St. Louis Blues (@StLouisBlues) July 16, 2024
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At first glance, it may not seem like the Blues are the type of team that the Leafs would be willing to work with in regards to dealing the All-Star winger away. St. Louis is not in a tax-free state, doesn’t have a warm weather climate, and the team are not a legit Stanley Cup contender, leaving one to wonder if Marner would even consider going there in the first place.
Dig a little bit deeper and it becomes apparent that this is the exact scenario that could work out well for both parties. The news of Krug being out indefinitely obviously does not mean a Marner trade is imminent, but it makes the prospect of one more realistic to pull off.
From the perspective of the Blues, they are a team that has some decent pieces in the fold that make them a competitive team but lack a true superstar to put them in a better position to go on a deep run. They are also a team that struggled mightily to generate offence both at even strength (24th in the league in goals for) and on the power play (25th in the league at 18%), which was a major factor in their early struggles and why they ultimately missed out on a playoff spot by six points. St. Louis has been treading water for a few seasons now and could use a major jolt to their system to get them back into contention.
Marner would help fix that in a lot of ways for the Blues and his arrival would help significantly improve their offensive game. Not only that, but they would be acquiring an All-Star right in the middle of his prime who can also be a useful piece in all situations. The noise in St. Louis is also significantly quieter compared to Toronto and the lifestyle there could be appealing to Marner and his family, especially given that Cardinal Point Atheltic Advisors ranks St. Louis sixth in the NHL in terms of overall way of life. I would also imagine the idea of getting to play alongside his longtime friend and former London Knight teammate Robert Thomas would also be enticing for Marner.
Combine all of that with the crop of enticing young players the Blues have coming up in Dalibor Dvorský, Zachary Bolduc, and Jimmy Snuggerud among others and it is an ideal situation for Marner to be in both the immediate and long-term future. With nearly $14 million in cap space suddenly available to them in the wake of Krug’s injury announcement, they have the space available to fit Marner into the fold while still having room to make additional moves if needed. Blues GM Doug Armstrong has made it known that he wants to keep the Blues competitive while they retool and bringing in a major piece like Marner would help accelerate things while not deviating too far from their plans.
In terms of why the Leafs would be inclined to do this, the Blues have enough intriguing pieces that would entice them to be comfortable enough to pull the trigger. Toronto has a clear need for some improvements in the middle six and on the backend, even after giving it an overhaul with the arrival of Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson. It certainly helps that new coach Craig Berube knows a lot of these players well and would know who among that group he would want to work with again.
Given that Toronto tried to sign Brandon Montour and Matt Roy but both moves fell through due to a lack of cap space, it is clear the Leafs feel they would like to add another RHD to solidify the top four defence pairings so they may prioritize that in a potential trade. Colton Parayko immediately comes to mind as he has been connected to the Leafs in speculation tasks for quite some time. Parayko may be on the wrong side of 30 and his $6.5 million cap hit for the next six years will be a tough sell, but he is the kind of player the Leafs would be interested in and he would help improve Toronto’s defensive unit. Beyond Parayko, Justin Faulk would be a solid other option to consider and he could add some additional offence to the backend. He also has a $6.5 million cap hit but with three years left it’s more palpable than Parayko’s. Despite being a LHD, Tyler Tucker would also be a player the Leafs could be interested in especially since he has some upside at the age of 24.
Brayden Schenn is the most appealing of the forwards St. Louis may be willing to move and their current captain has always spoken highly of the Leafs’ new coach so a reunion would make sense. He has long been a solid secondary scorer, can be a useful piece in all situations, and has the versatility to be both a centre and a winger which gives Berube more options for how to adjust the middle-six. Although he is going to turn 33 this summer and has four years left with a $6.5 million cap hit (starting to sense a theme?), Schenn would be a solid addition to the Leafs up front. I could also see them asking about Brandon Saad since the Leafs require some additional weapons on the left wing. Like Schenn, Saad has also been a dependable secondary contributor throughout his career who can be counted on to finish with roughly 47 points a season relative to his career points per game average. The same goes with Alexey Toropchenko who I have talked at length about why I believe he would be a prime target for the Leafs. Long story short: he is big, hits a lot, is a reliable penalty killer, and has some offensive upside while also being only 25 years old.
Regardless of which combination of players the Leafs decide to go with, they would also be wise to get a few draft picks out of it to help restock their baren cupboard. With only a second-round pick in the first four rounds in the 2025 Draft, getting an additional second and third would give Toronto some additional assets they can use either to bring in additional help at the deadline or to make the picks themselves. A trade involving a 2025 third and/or a future second-round pick could be enough to help get the trade across the finish line.
Based on all of this, here are two hypothetical trades that I could see being done:
Option 1
To STL: Mitch Marner
To TOR: Brayden Schenn, Alexey Toropchenko, 2025 3rd Round Pick, 2027 2nd Round Pick
Option 2
To STL: Mitch Marner, Conor Timmins
To TOR: Justin Faulk, Brandon Saad, 2025 3rd Round Pick, 2026 2nd Round Pick
Of course, there are plenty of other ways this move could be executed and my two options are certainly not the be-all and end-all of what a Marner trade with the Blues should be. But these would be the kind of transactions that could make everyone happy and get both parties what they need out of the trade.
The Blues are a team that could be appealing to Marner given they are eager to return to contention, the city has a quieter lifestyle that would get him out of the noise of Toronto and would be a huge boost to their offence. Getting a year headstart to try and convince him to stay past the 2024-25 campaign will not be cheap but they would have a good chance of signing him to be the face of the next successful period for the franchise. The Leafs would be able to add some pieces that help bring a major shakeup to the foundation of the team while also not jeopardizing their window. Whether it is through additions to the middle six or in the top four, there is enough there that would be appealing enough to compel Treliving to move forward.
A trade between the two parties certainly could have been possible before Krug’s injury diagnosis, but it is much more realistic to pull off now that it is reported he will be out indefinitely and he could be out for the season.