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Why the Buffalo Sabres could be an ideal trade partner for the Leafs

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As the trade deadline slowly approaches, the Toronto Maple Leafs will have plenty of work that needs to get done in terms of addressing their needs.

General Manager Brad Treliving has made it clear for months that their top priority is to acquire another centre to help shore up their depth. It makes a lot of sense given that there aren’t a lot of quality options currently available outside of Auston Matthews and John Tavares, with the likes of Pontus Holmberg, Max Domi, and David Kampf not providing enough elements in their game to make up the deficit.

There have been times where the top two options have missed time and the Leafs have been able to weather the storm in the interim. But this situation will not be tenable in the postseason when opposing teams will be looking to find exploits and there is a glaring one down the middle when it’s not their top two options. No wonder the team has been connected to guys like Brock Nelson, Yanni Gourde, Jonathan Toews, and Charlie Coyle in recent weeks.

But this season has also seen another issue emerge: their defensive unit is not quite as solid as it was made out to be. The continued struggles of Morgan Rielly in combination with Jake McCabe’s absences at times have exploded a glaring weakness that the backend’s construction is not good enough. Players such as Simon Benoit, Conor Timmins, and Philippe Myers have certainly had their moments but their defensive lapses have also played a role in the Leafs’ overall defensive struggles. Perhaps this all could have been mitigated if Jani Hakanpaa was healthy, but it is unclear when he can return and be effective given the precarious state of his knee.

Put all of these together and it is clear that the Leafs don’t just need to acquire a centre, but need to add another defenceman. With their depleted prospect pool and barren cupboard, trying to address both will not be easy. But is far from impossible; in fact, it is doable for them to solve both issues in one trade.

This brings us to the Buffalo Sabres, the team I have identified as the best option for the Leafs to try and make a move that brings in help down the middle and on the back end.

At the time of filing, there are not a lot of clearly defined sellers with the East being wide open and a lot of teams remaining in the hunt in the West. By my calculations, there are only four teams currently that you can safely classify as open to selling and the Sabres are one of them. A 13-game winless streak has all but plummeted their playoff chances and there are too many teams standing in their way to get back in the fight, so they are likely beginning to consider who on their roster is worth surrendering for futures.

Trades between the two teams are indeed rare as the last one happened back in 2009 when the Leafs sent Dominic Moore to the Sabres in exchange for a second-round pick. But with Buffalo looking to sell and Toronto in need of the upgrades mentioned earlier, the first transition involving the two teams in nearly 16 years could come to fruition this season.

Looking at their roster, there are a few obvious players that are well out of the Leafs’ price range and the Sabres are not interested in selling. As nice as it would be for one of Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch, Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, or Ryan McLeod to be wearing the Blue and White, they aren’t leaving Buffalo anytime soon. There are also too many younger players the Sabres would prefer to hold onto in Jack Quinn, Juri Kulich Zach Benson, Tyson Kozak, and Ryan Johnson.

But there are a few players that the Sabres could be open to moving for the right price in centre Peyton Krebs and RHD Henri Jokiharju.

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Krebs was one of the pieces Buffalo got in the infamous Jack Eichel trade and he has become a mainstay in their lineup for the past four seasons. A former first-round pick by the Vegas Golden Knights in 2019, he was touted as a playmaker who has a strong motor, can skate well, and could hold his own defensively. His time in the NHL has also seen him develop a knack for playing scrappy hockey and being a nuisance to play against as noted in the above clip.

While he has shown flashes of his offensive capabilities, they seem to have been thwarted this season as coach Lindy Ruff has decided to make Krebs one of his shutdown forwards. He has started over 60% of his shifts in the defensive zone, third among all regular Sabres forwards. In fairness to Krebs, he doesn’t mind whatever role he is given and strives to make the most of it while also being a pain to play against. With that said, his skillset should make the zone starts be more even than one-sided because he can be useful in all three zones if utilized correctly.

Prior to Thursday’s games, Krebs recorded 16 points (four goals and 12 assists) in 46 games played along with 78 hits and 18 blocks. The soon-to-be 24-year-old is locked in for another season beyond this one at $1.45 million and will be an RFA when the deal expires in 2026. This makes him an intriguing buy-low candidate who could be a useful piece for the foreseeable future, comes at a reasonable cap hit, and could feasibly be part of the long-term plans.

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Jokiharju’s best asset is his puck-moving abilities, which would alone be a welcome addition to the Leafs blueline who could benefit from another option that gets the puck up ice. His offensive skillset helped get him into the NHL but he has certainly improved defensively over the years. It certainly helps that he has shown he can hang when paired up with one of Buffalo’s top blueliners in Dahlin or Power.

Unlike Krebs, Jokiharju’s zone starts are about even with a slight edge to offensive zone starts that has been the case for him for five straight seasons. This makes sense given he has been used a lot with Power and Dahlin, both of whom tend to get the bulk of the heavy minutes. But under Ruff, Jokiharju’s hits and blocks are down from last season as he only has 29 and 30 respectively at the time of filing. For reference, last season he was fourth on the team in blocks with 106 and ninth in hits with 92.

It has been a trying season for Jokiharju offensively with only three points (a goal and two assists) in 32 games. He is on pace for only his second season failing to surpass the double-digit mark in points which has done in every season but the 2021 COVID-shortened campaign when he had eight in 46 games. With it being a difficult campaign for him, his value is low and he seems like the kind of player who could benefit from a change of scenery.

PLAYER
CF%
FF%
SF%
GF%
XGF%
SCF%
HDCF%
HDGF%
PDO
PEYTON KREBS
51.17
49.21
47.34
51.16
46.58
49.01
47.72
44.83
1.015
HENRI JOKIHARJU
51.24
49.65
47.89
52.78
49.81
49.78
51.40
61.11
1.015

The combined cap hits of Krebs and Jokiharju would be $5.5 million, so there would need to be some salary retention to make a hypothetical trade possible. A package centred around David Kampf and Conor Timmins could be a decent starting point as that would be about equal to what the retained salary on Buffalo’s end would probably be (roughly $3 million). Add in a draft pick and an expendable prospect and there is a deal that can be had.

Of course, if the Leafs want to think of a bolder trade (and reports are suggesting they could be leaning in that direction), then they can inquire about Dylan Cozens instead of Krebs as the centre target. Cozens has been in trade rumours this season and he would be an even better fit both now and down the line, but the asking price would be steep and the Leafs would need to find a way to squeeze in his cap hit of $7.1 million. That would have to involve a more seismic trade to get it over the line but if they are motivated to pull off a big move then Cozens would make sense as their big target add.

All of which is to say that the Sabres could be ideal trade partners for the Leafs to address their needs at centre and on defence. They are one of the few teams that can safely be considered sellers at this time, they have some assets worth considering, and the cost of acquisition may not be as high as some of the rental targets on the market. Krebs and Jokiharju could find new life on a contending team like the Leafs as both have had their struggles and have been forced into different utilization under Ruff. And if Toronto wants to think bigger, Cozens would be a great get for now and the long term.

While trades between the two teams are rare, Treliving could have a dance partner in Kevyn Adams even if the deal would be between divisional rivals.