Right now I am fighting every urge to become the guy who puts together Leafs line combinations in the middle of July. I’d imagine that by the end of this post I’ll have become that guy, but I’d like to think it will at least come through a thoughtful process.
The one guy who should be tinkering around with potential line combinations is the guy we will talk about today, Craig Berube. Sheldon Keefe has previously mentioned that his summer was spent scribbling down ideas no matter where he was and trying to see what to start with and given that pretty much every hockey fan seems to do this as well, it seems reasonable that Craig Berube is forming some ideas to test in September whether he believes Brad Treliving’s work is done yet or not.
For that reason, it seems worthwhile to see what Craig Berube has done in the past and see how much influence that could have on the Leafs, knowing that the history of combinations used by Sheldon Keefe will also carry some weight and player chemistry factors. Berube might not have viewed some of these combinations as ideal, but it worked based on the personnel making it work. It still seems like it is something worthwhile to take away.
When looking at what Craig Berube used for lines last year it seems reasonable to look at the opening night roster for the Blues. Not only is it easier to find, but it points to what Berube landed on after a summer of scribbled on napkins. The Blues are certainly not the Leafs but it might spark a few different ideas as we scribble on our own napkins over the next two months.
First line: Pavel Buchnevich-Robert Thomas-Jordan Kyrou
St. Louis’ top line already has a different feel from what we’ve seen from the Maple Leafs. This is a complete overload offensive unit akin to having Nylander-Matthews-Marner going as the top unit, an idea that maybe we should try to hate a little less. It’s also easy to see where Domi could fit in as well.
The Blues and Berube have a reputation of being a hard nosed team that grinds for their wins and I don’t think you see any of that on this line. This is skill and cycling and set plays with a lower level of talent than the Leafs would be deploying on their top line, even if some skill is moved out for toughness.
Second line: Brandon Saad-Brayden Schenn-Kasperi Kapanen
Another interesting line and maybe two lines in we are already seeing why Craig Berube had a hard time winning in St. Louis last season. The second line is a bit more of a defensive match-up (largely due to the presence of Schenn) but also a more physically tough line to play against. Not that Kapanen is throwing his body around a ton, but when he thinks to, it has had merit. Saad will grind for his chances and is again a bit more offensively driven than Schenn, but a good stable two-way centre holds down the unit.
It’s easy to point to players like Knies and McMann as Saad type players, and when it comes to skating in a straight line, Nick Robertson could easily replace Kapanen in that role, but let’s stop there for a minute. At no point in NHL history has Kasperi Kapanen been a first choice for a line assignment and it’s probably reasonable to assume that Berube will want to do something different here. This definitely seems to be an attempt add speed to a line that was lacking it, but other than being fast I don’t think there is ever much offered by Kapanen.
The Tavares vs. Schenn comparison is the toughest and while both are around the same age and not particularly fast, Schenn’s two-way play is what sets this line apart from what the Leafs would do. If Berube wanted a similar line to this on the Leafs it might be better deployed as a third line or rotating the positions around a little so that Jarnkrok can play the role of Schenn, Tavares can be the Saad type net presence, and you’d probably want Nick Robertson as the straight line skater.
Third line: Jakub Vrana-Kevin Hayes-Sammy Blais
I think there is more something to say about these lines when it comes to Doug Armstrong than it does Craig Berube. The inclusion of Kasperi Kapanen, Jakub Vrana, and Kevin Hayes in the Blues lineup last season definitely shows that he’s a swing for the fence type of GM at times, at least on using low risk/high reward players on his team.
That said the combination of Vrana and Hayes together points to more of what a mess of players the Blues had to work with, and this line seemed to be trying to get something from someone but failing miserably on all three acounts. Vrana didn’t rediscover his scoring, nor did Hayes and he was at best adequate as a 3C, and Sammy Blais, although a nice spark of energy, he wasn’t going to carry this line.
What it does show is that Berube wanted a 3rd line of experienced players together and up until now in the roster you can see that Berube has leaned on experience. It’s probably a sign that Kampf will get the best look at as the Leafs 3C based on their current options. One of Connor Dewar, Bobby McMann, or Matthew Knies would fit the Blais type of role, and Vrana isn’t really a player that you consider in this. The Blues moved on from him pretty quickly and it might just be a landing spot for an offensive player who didn’t land in the Leafs top six.
Fourth line: Alexey Toropchenko-Oskar Sundqvist-Jake Neighbours
This fourth line has far more of an identity and legitimately fun to watch. Our own Michael Mazzei can probably tell you everything you want to know about Toropchenko but he’s big and hits, and could have some offensive upside in there somewhere.
Sundqvist and Neighbours are a couple of success stories out of St. Louis as Sundqvist began seeing increased workload and Jake Neighbours finished the season with 27 goals after starting on the fourth line. Given the similarities between Neighbours and Fraser Minten as well as the similarities between Sundqvist and Holmberg, it seems like there is the foundation for the start of a solid fourth line.
The role of Toropchenko would just have to be played one of Reaves or McMann. Or the Leafs could take Michael Mazzei’s advice and just simply trade for Toropchenko to round out the fourth line.
General themes from Berube’s lines
The top line is very much a top line. It is all about offence and when they are on the ice they will be dictating the pace of the game. It’s a strong approach and one that suits a team that has sunk most of its budget into four forwards. While last season seemed to be all about pressuring Sheldon Keefe to spread out the core four forwards across three lines, don’t be surprised in Berube tests a big top line. Where it gets interesting is if the Leafs see Auston Matthews as the player who can stand on their own the best out of the core forwards and potentially the Leafs could have a stellar line of Nylander-Tavares-Marner and then trust Auston Matthews to be the centre who excels in the Brayden Schenn two-way centre role.
After the top line the Berube lines seem to have a physical presence, a two-way presence, a strong skater, some offensive upside, and at least in theory, someone who is capable of controlling the puck. The lack of puck control was a bit of the undoing for the Blues last season but should be a strength of the Maple Leafs.
There is also a definite reliance on veterans, especially in the top nine and that likely means that guys like Robertson, Minten, Cowan, and possibly even Knies will have to make their cases for bigger roles over the course of the season. That seems to fit with Brad Treliving’s philosophy as well and is prevalent with most NHL teams despite the need for cheap upside as a difference maker and the best way to have those cheap upside players be ready when you need them to make a difference is by playing them early in the year. That’s a topic for another day.
Copying Berube’s template for the Maple Leafs
There was no way this post was ending without Maple Leafs line combinations, and here’s my kick at them.
Nylander-Tavares-Marner
Knies-Matthews-Domi
Jarnkrok-Kampf-Dewar
McMann-Holmberg-Minten
The Matthews line should always be considered the top line, so consider those lines as 1A/1B, and my best attempt to mirror what worked in St. Louis. The top line I already touched on how it mirrors the Blues, but how it also frees up Auston Matthews to be Auston Matthews.
Max Domi might not have Kasperi Kapanen’s speed but pretty much everything else about Domi seems to mirror Kapanen, except he is far more capable offensively and as a playmaker which makes him an upgrade. Knies is very similar to Brandon Saad, as well as being the best candidate to replace Tyler Bertuzzi on a line that worked very well for the Leafs late last season. Knies getting a bit more a mean streak is all that is required for this to be a success.
The Leafs third line is veteran loaded just like the Blues unit, with Dewar being a bit more skilled than Blais but not as physical and Jarnkrok being a certain upgrade on Vrana while a meh Kampf vs. a struggling Kevin Hayes is a pretty level trade off.
The fourth line for the Leafs mirrors the energy and potential upside and while it lacks experience, it is probably the line people want to see on the ice more than the third line.
Dewar, McMann, and Minten all represent opportunities to play Ryan Reaves when you want to, and if the Leafs see a path for Nick Robertson returning the Maple Leafs in a significant role, it probably comes with him taking the Dewar spot and Dewar being placed in Minten’s role, leaving the rookies on the outside looking in.
Other than not liking the third line much, I’d argue there is merit to mirroring what Craig Berube has done in the past. While it’s easy to have optimism in the summer, this approach also looks less like a team that needs to upgrade significantly at forward, at least not before the season starts.
Forwards for the Maple Leafs have always been easier. Next time we’ll look at what Craig Berube might attempt with the Leafs’ blueline.