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The Leafs should make a play to pry Rutger McGroarty out of Winnipeg

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In a somewhat surprising development over the weekend, Sportsnet insider Elliotte Friedman reported on 32 Thoughts: The Podcast that dialogue between the Winnipeg Jets and their 2022 first-round pick, Rutger McGroarty, had stalled and that the team was reportedly shopping him. The Athletic’s Murat Ates confirmed this speculation with an article of his own, reporting that “McGroarty’s view of his long-term future with Winnipeg changed since the conclusion of the NCAA season.”  (from ‘What I’m hearing about why Winnipeg Jet stop prospect Rutger McGroarty is in trade talks’, TheAthleticNHL – 6/22/24)

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McGroarty is the second pick from that draft class to strong-arm his way out of town. Cutter Gauthier, selected fifth overall by the Philadelphia Flyers in 2022, was traded to the Anaheim Ducks last season after reportedly informing the Flyers in May 2023 that he wouldn’t be signing with the team. While McGroarty seems to have provided more of a legitimate reason to want a trade, it’s shocking to see a development like this with two high-profile players from that draft class. Here’s a snippet from the article from Atek, shining some further light on the situation and why McGroarty is being shopped.

“This isn’t a situation where the player wants out of Winnipeg because of his views on the city. Instead, there appears to be a disconnect between how Winnipeg’s player development viewed and communicated its plan with McGroarty and McGroarty’s view of his own future. The desire to play in the NHL played a big role in McGroarty’s decision not to sign in April; put simply, he viewed himself as more ready than the team did. At first, this difference in opinion didn’t appear to necessitate McGroarty’s exit from the organization. The relationship has changed since the start of McGroarty’s offseason, though. He no longer believes his future is with the Jets. (from ‘What I’m hearing about why Winnipeg Jet stop prospect Rutger McGroarty is in trade talks’, TheAthleticNHL – 6/22/24)

According to the aforementioned article, the Jets wanted to sign McGroarty to a contract at the end of last season, but couldn’t guarantee him playing time in the NHL, which prompted his decision to commit to a third season with the University of Michigan. His viewpoint was essentially, “I would rather try to lead my college team to a championship than play in the American Hockey League (AHL) next season. If these reports are accurate and the Jets are indeed shopping his rights, Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Brad Treliving should be at the front of the line of teams looking to acquire him.

Getting to know Rutger McGroarty

Born in Lincoln, Nebraska, Rutger McGroarty is well on track to being only the fifth Nebraskan to play in the NHL, joining a short list including Carolina Hurricanes forward Jake Guentzel, Winnipeg Jets defenceman Neal Pionk, and former NHLers Jed Ortmeyer and Johnny Matz. He scored 102 points in 79 games for the U.S. National Team Development Program in his draft year, also captaining Team U.S.A. to a second-place finish at the 2022 U18 Men’s World Hockey Championship, scoring eight goals in seven games along the way. He joined the juggernaut University of Michigan in 2022-23 and took a significant step forward in his sophomore season, scoring 16 goals and finishing the season with 52 points in 36 games, finishing one point shy of the team lead in points despite having played four fewer games.

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McGroarty plays the style of a fan favourite. High-octane offence, relentless forechecking, a willingness to throw the body and a desire to lead. He’s reliable at both ends of the ice and told reporters at the 2022 draft combine that he models his game after Florida Panthers star Matthew Tkachuk. He stands at 6-foot-1 and 205 pounds, and can play all three forward positions.

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While he might start in the NHL as a winger, he has the right frame to be an everyday centre, if that’s how his eventual new team sees him long term.

“I bring my compete and I bring my energy every single day and I feel like I’m a super approachable guy.” McGroarty said. “I feel like if someone is struggling on the ice, or off the ice whatever it is, just go and talk to them, hang out with them and just be there for them.”

When asked about what kind of animal he’d compare himself to, a question that’s become common from scouts and development teams lately, he called himself a father gorilla off the ice and an African hunting dog on the ice.

This quote comes courtesy of Peter Baracchini from The Hockey Writers, who wrote an in-depth profile on McGroarty ahead of the 2022 draft, where it was revealed that he actually grew up a Leafs fan. You expect to hear that from Toronto-born players or even those who grew up in Ontario. To hear it come from somebody born in Nebraska is interesting, to say the least.

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“I feel like I could definitely add that leadership ability,” McGroarty explained. “I could come in and bring that compete and energy. Being a kid that’s always been a Toronto fan, I’ve always been a big fan of them. And I got a lot of friends up there so I feel like I’d be comfortable in the Toronto area.”

Typically, a player growing up a Leafs fan is a fun little tidbit for fans and nothing more, but in this case, where McGroarty could potentially have a say in where he ends up, it might work in Toronto’s favour.

What would a package look like?

Let’s make one thing clear – the Leafs will have to pay up for McGroarty if they do want to make a push for him. He’s only 20 years old, he’s ready to play in the NHL and would give them a future top-six forward with fan-favourite instincts and leadership qualities for the foreseeable future. Toronto will have a hole up the middle when John Tavares either signs elsewhere following next season or re-ups in a limited role, and their lack of a plus-centre prospect to skate behind Auston Matthews is one that could instantly be solved by trading for him. With the number of pending free-agent forwards they have on their roster and the fact that Matthews and Nylander will be receiving raises of $1.6 million and $4.1 million respectively, they’ll need cheap talent to fill out their roster, and McGroarty would fill both the short-term and long-term needs.

That being said, if McGroarty doesn’t plan on signing with the Jets, his value is going to be objectively lower than it would if there were no issues between the team and the Leafs were trying to acquire him raw. A couple of comparables include the Gauthier trade who was acquired for a fellow former top-1o pick in defenceman Jamie Drysdale. There’s also the trade that sent Adam Fox from the Carolina Hurricanes to the New York Rangers, commanding two second-round picks, but that situation is slightly difference since Fox was on the verge of pursuing free agency.

A hypothetical offer from the Leafs would almost certainly start with their first round pick, which is slotted at 23rd overall. It could also feature somebody like Timothy Liljegren, who has had trouble finding his footing in Toronto and is likely headed for arbitration if the team doesn’t trade him this summer. He could find himself in a better situation on a Jets team that’s in dire need of young talent on defence to complement their crop of forward prospects including Colby Barlow, Chaz Lucius, and Brad Lambert. If not Liljegren, the Leafs should be willing to part with any prospect not named Easton Cowan. The best-case scenario should they keep their first-round pick is drafting somebody in the same ballpark of talent as McGroarty, and they shouldn’t be wary of parting with pieces from their prospect pool or draft stock to acquire him.

Obviously, there’s a line for everything. If there’s a bidding war for McGroarty’s services, as there likely will be, they shouldn’t completely gut themselves of assets just to be the team that picked him up – he is unproven at the NHL level, after all, no matter how intriguing and promising he looks as a prospect. But you can imagine that Treliving will do his due diligence, and when he does, he’ll like what he sees. And while the fact that he grew up a Leafs fan likely won’t propel a trade or give them a cheaper price than other teams, it’s something that could potentially help them out in talks Either way, it’s something to keep an eye on as draft day rolls around.