You’ll read a common refrain from our trade deadline coverage, which we know to be a truism: good teams know how to maximize their contention window, not all trades are created equal and draft capital doesn’t matter for teams that need to win now. It’s the most important trade deadline of the past decade for the Toronto Maple Leafs, where Brad Treliving is tasked with improving a talented, contending roster that habitually underperforms in the playoffs, with limited cap space.
Draft capital certainly doesn’t matter for this Maple Leafs team, who have been in win-now mode for the better part of three seasons at minimum, and are facing the most crucial year of the existing timeline. Mitch Marner, John Tavares and Matthew Knies all require new contracts and while all three players have expressed their desire to remain with the Maple Leafs on multiple occasions, there are no certainties, especially with Marner, who could command a top-of-the-market deal and leave his boyhood club with nothing in return. Toronto boasts arguably the best goaltending tandem in the league in Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll, as Treliving’s bet on small sample excellence has paid dividends already, a pre-requisite for playoff success.
The future does not matter, and being precious about the team’s prospects or future first-rounders does nothing to serve the team’s best interests, although admittedly, it may be a tough sell to the scouting staff. Easton Cowan is widely considered the Maple Leafs’ best prospect and if he’s retained through Friday, he could contend for a roster spot next year. We also have to be honest about his real potential compared to the rest of the world’s best prospects. My colleague Steven Ellis listed Cowan as the 35th-best NHL-affiliated prospect in his March 5 rankings, and while that’s nothing to sneeze at, Cowan isn’t a blue-chip prospect that is projected to alter the trajectory of the franchise in the same way Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Marner were viewed a decade ago. If the asking price for Brayden Schenn includes Cowan, and a future asset, along with a roster player like Nick Robertson, it should be a relatively easy decision for Treliving.
To be clear, this isn’t an indictment of Cowan, or Fraser Minten, a player I’ve advocated for further minutes at the NHL level this year, or Ben Danford, a punishing open-ice hitter who continues to develop with the OHL’s Oshawa Generals. Getting emotionally attached to a relatively shallow prospect pool doesn’t serve the best interests of a team with three of their Core Four firmly in their prime, the fourth member of the quartet on an expiring contract, and a championship-ready but aging defence corps. The window is right now. Brendan Shanahan’s reputation is on the line with Keith Pelley overseeing his every move from here onwards, not all seasons are weighted equally, and with the Leafs electing to take an incremental approach last summer, rather than radically disrupting the roster in a form of a seismic trade, they have to be as aggressive as possible before Friday’s clock runs out.
We’re not instructing the Maple Leafs to be reactionary, but there are clear examples of this strategy paying off within their own division. Tampa Bay supplemented its core of superstars by trading away draft capital for clear upgrades countlessly through out its dynastic run, while the reigning champion Florida Panthers just traded for Seth Jones, taking a miscast No. 1 defencemen and stapling him as their No. 4 where he ought to thrive. This is an arms race, and you won’t win it through minute upgrades that serve a misguided notion of organizational agility and flexibility, the cautious approach sailed away a few deadlines ago.
There’s an appreciable chance that the Maple Leafs are worse next season, particularly if Marner walks away without an extension. And if the Leafs land a player who helps them win their first Stanley Cup since 1967, all parties involved will be elevated to demigod status. Marner, Tavares and a handful of other Leafs staples watched the Toronto Raptors win their first NBA title six years ago, which was partly due to their deadline acquisition of Marc Gasol, cementing their reputation as the second-best defensive team of the 21st century alongside the 2004 Detroit Pistons.
The next few draft nights may be a bit boring for Leafs fans, and the team’s scouting personnel, but it’s a small price to pay in pursuit of a title. The future does not matter for the Maple Leafs, the clock is ticking and all of the team’s accrued draft capital should be on the negotiating table.