Auston Matthews will miss his eighth consecutive game Sunday, but it sounds possible that the Leafs will get their Captain back in the lineup for Wednesday’s crucial matchup versus the Panthers. The Leafs have done a fantastic job in Matthews’ absence, playing to a 6-1-0 record and claiming the top spot in the Atlantic Division in the process.
If the Maple Leafs can avoid a letdown in this softer matchup, they will enter Wednesday’s matchup with a three-game lead over the Panthers on even games played.
Utah snapped a three-game losing skid with a convincing 6-1 win last night in Pittsburgh. With Connor Ingram sidelined due to injury and Karel Vejmelka having started last night, Jaxson Stauber may make his first start of the NHL season on Sunday.
I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.
Hockey Club vs. Leafs Odds
- Utah Moneyline Odds: +160
- Leafs Moneyline Odds: -190
- Puck Line Odds: Utah +1.5 (-160), Maple Leafs -1.5 (+135)
- Game Total: 6 goals (over +100, under -120)
Utah Hockey Club:
After a strong start to the season, Utah has struggled to a record of 3-5-1 in the month of November. Their blue line was projected to be a strength entering the season, and they had me believing they might sneak into the playoffs, but long-term injuries to Sean Durzi and John Marino have hurt the upside of the defensive corps considerably.
Still, Utah’s underlying results at even strength this month have been strong, and that has come versus a tougher-than-average slate of opponents. It has played several top teams in that span, including the Golden Knights (twice), Jets, Hurricanes and Capitals. I’d also argue a matchup in Boston the day after the Bruins fired Jim Montgomery isn’t ideal.
In November, Utah holds a 55.84% expected goal share at even strength, which ranks sixth in the league and is particularly impressive considering their schedule.
Utah’s recent special teams play has been a concern, which finally led to coach Andre Tourigny switching up the top unit ahead of last night’s game in Pittsburgh. It had been struggling with Alex Kerfoot playing on the top unit, and the adjustment to put Logan Cooley onto the top unit seems far more logical. Utah netted three powerplay goals last night versus Pittsburgh, and Cooley tallied a power play assist on Guenther’s late marker.
While Stauber is relatively unknown, there are some arguments which suggest he could be a capable NHL’er this season. In six NHL starts with Chicago, he held a .911 save percentage and 2.77 GAA, and in the AHL this season, he’s played to a .930 save % and 2.29 GAA.
Marino, Durzi and Ingram are expected to be the only absences from Utah’s lineup in this matchup.
Toronto Maple Leafs:
The Leafs enter this matchup on ideal rest after an excellent showing in Wednesday’s 3-0 win over the Golden Knights. While I thought the Knights had a great chance in that matchup, the Leafs were deserving winners and did an excellent job of limiting the Knights’ true scoring chances. The Leafs led 13-8 in high-danger scoring in that game, and that mark sounds fair upon review of the tape.
Fraser Minten garnered more of the headlines for tallying his first NHL goal, but Nikita Grebenkin’s performance certainly deserves a lot of credit. It seemed like he had a case to make the team out of training camp, and he certainly looked worthy of a spot in that matchup.
The Leafs’ recent defensive play has been extremely impressive and should make them a very formidable side if their offensive play at even strength can trend upwards once Matthews returns. Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev have formed one of the league’s best shutdown pairings, which is certainly one argument that this year’s Leafs’ team could finally make a deeper run this postseason.
The Leafs haven’t generated all that many chances at even strength recently, which is the concern entering this matchup. They rank 26th in the NHL with a 2.25 xGF/60 at 5v5 this month, and their offensive upside takes another notable hit, with Matthew Knies set to miss this matchup.
They have allowed even less at the other end, however, and they continue to receive excellent goaltending from Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz.
Woll has been confirmed as the starter in this matchup, with the plan likely being to allow Stolarz to take on his former team in Wednesday’s matchup. Woll has a .922 save % and 2.00 GAA in six appearances this season.
Best Bets for Utah HC vs Leafs:
The Leafs have done a tremendous job of displaying an excellent team game to help cover some notable absences from the lineup. Their defensive corps has been a clear strength, and the team has responded with strong team defensive play from top to bottom. Marner and Nylander are showing why they’re paid like superstars, and players like Grebenkin and Minten don’t seem likely to downgrade the bottom six minutes compared to what the Leafs were getting from those roles when at full health.
While I think the Leafs deserve lots of credit for their recent play, I still think that Utah has shown well enough lately to make it the more valuable side, given the prices in this matchup. It has been dominant in even-strength play versus a tough schedule, and the new-look powerplay has the talent to provide better results moving forward.
At +155 or better, I see value in backing Utah to steal a win in this matchup.
Best Bet: Utah Hockey Club Moneyline +160 (Sports Interaction, Play to +155)