Barring a collapse of a lifetime, the Toronto Maple Leafs are headed to the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs.
And if they win Thursday night against the Florida Panthers, they’ll be tied for first in the Atlantic with the very same cats. If the playoffs were to start today, the Leafs would face off against the Tampa Bay Lightning for the third time in four years. Unless Toronto takes over the top spot in the Atlantic, it seems unlikely they’ll face anyone else.
Regardless of what happens, one thing is certain: if the Leafs are going to go the distance, their road to the Stanley Cup final will likely run through the Panthers. So, Thursday night’s game means more than most as the stretch run continues.
The Panthers crushed Toronto 5-1 the last time these two teams met back on Nov. 27. They’ll meet up for their traditional two-game bout in early April before potentially getting acquainted in the second round of the playoffs.
The Panthers will be without Matthew Tkachuk, Brad Marchand and Aaron Ekblad tonight. So, they won’t be at full strength by any means – but the Leafs can’t treat them any differently.
“We’re preparing for a playoff-like game,” said Steven Lorentz, who won the Stanley Cup with Florida last season. “You can say that about a lot of games. But it’s no secret that this is for the top spot. Both teams have a lot of talent up front, and the back ends are very deep. It’s going to be a hard game.”
The Leafs are 5-3-1 in regular season action against the Panthers since 2022, which includes three wins in overtime. Of them, there’s only been truly one-sided affair – the 5-1 victory Florida snagged a few months back.
“You play Florida, it’s always going to be a hard game,” Leafs coach Craig Berube said. “That’s just the style they play. They’re in your face. There isn’t much room out there. So, it’s going to feel like a playoff game.”
According to Natural Stat Trick, the Leafs have a 37 percent expected goals rate at 5-on-5 since Chris Tanev was injured back on Feb. 25. The Leafs are 3-2-1 since then – good for 18th in the NHL. Florida is 5-1-0, which puts them fourth. So, the Leafs aren’t expecting an easy night.
The good news, though? The Leafs are 12-5-1 against divisional rivals this season and 7-1-0 over the past eight, dating back to Jan. 15. So it doesn’t seem like Toronto has an issue preparing for these types of matchups.
The Leafs have never won the Atlantic Division regular season title. Outside of the COVID-affected 2020-21 season, when Toronto was first in the North, you have to go all the way back to 1999-00 to see the last time the Leafs won a divisional championship. Three players on Toronto’s roster tonight – Matthew Knies, Nick Robertson and Alex Steeves – weren’t even born then.
Winning a division title isn’t too important to the group, though.
“That shit doesn’t matter to us,” forward Max Domi said. “We’re just trying to beat every team we play.”
What is important is how this group prepares for bigger games like this down the stretch. Toronto closed the season with a four-game losing streak in 2023-24 and was eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. In 2023, when the Leafs broke a 19-year first-round playoff curse, the Leafs finished with a four-game winning streak.
That’s why playing every game like there’s something on the line is vital for Toronto’s postseason success. They can’t afford to take any breaks or relax.
“Every game is just as important,” Domi said. “So, we’re going to keep playing games. It’s us tonight against the defending champs. So, it’s going to be fun.