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How the Guentzel-Point-Kucherov line compares vs. Knies-Matthews-Marner through October

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Throughout their dynastic years, the Tampa Bay Lightning’s positional flexibility was one of its calling cards but their team now relies on a more top-heavy dynamic, the price of sustained winning, but Jake Guentzel, Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point have been on fire through October. Tampa Bay has navigated Steven Stamkos’ offseason departure well, as it effectively bet on Guentzel as a one-for-one replacement for its former captain, and thus far, its star-studded first line hasn’t missed a beat.

Guentzel-Point-Kucherov has outscored opponents 6-1 through four games at 5-on-5 in 51:46 of ice-time, with a plus-four goal differential and a 53.3 percent share of the expected goals via Natural Stat Trick. They’ve controlled possession and perhaps more importantly, Kucherov has commanded the complete attention of opponents, with seven goals and nine points thus far, looking every bit the part of perpetual Hart Trophy candidate.

“For our line, you’ve got Kuch facilitating a lot of the play,” Point told The Leafs Nation on Monday. “He’s obviously such a good hockey mind that me and Guentz are trying to build spots and to bring in a guy like Guentz, you see the plays he makes this year. A guy again that’s so good at finding time and space, and making the right play. It’s been awesome. It’s been a lot of fun to start this year and hopefully we keep it going.”

Kucherov’s ability to get his release off from virtual anywhere, the unique passing angles he seeks out and his otherworldly offensive skill set make him an unpredictable opponent to prepare for, particularly on the power play, but he’s tied for second league-wide in even strength points and is hunting for his offence on every shift. We’ve written extensively about Kucherov being one of the coolest players in the league to watch but the scouting report remains the same: if you afford him an inch of space, particularly at the top of the right face-off circle, he will scorch teams. The below example from Saturday’s game against the Ottawa Senators is a textbook example of Tampa Bay’s superstar winger at his best.

“Hell of a player. He plays the game at his own pace,” Maple Leafs defenceman Chris Tanev said of Kucherov during Monday morning’s scrum. “He’ll slow it down, he’ll speed it up. We can’t let him dictate and control the game and we’ve got to try to take time and space away from him, as much as you can.”

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Point is one of the best players at navigating tight spaces in the offensive third and his chemistry with Kucherov is well-documented. Guentzel provides a new wrinkle for the Lightning and though him and Stamkos were both adept off the rush, he’s innately aware of how to use his superstar teammates to full effect, while using the implicit threat of his own shot as a real weapon.

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“He’s got really everything. That line is obviously very dangerous. A lot of skill on it, a lot of speed, they can make a lot of dangerous plays,” Maple Leafs forward Mitch Marner said Monday of Kucherov and Tampa’s top line.

“You’ve got to be aware of them all the time on the ice. You want them to try to make them play defence, rather than the other way around.”

Although there’s a natural tendency to panic about all things Maple Leafs in this market, Toronto’s first line of Matthew Knies, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner have been stellar to begin the season. The trio have outscored opponents 4-0, with a plus-21 (48-27) shot differential and a 54.4 percent share of the expected goals at 5-on-5. The expected goals haven’t always translated into actual goals, particularly for Matthews, who has scored in consecutive games, sitting with two goals on the season on a league-high 28 shots, but they’re still operating as a true No. 1 scoring line. During Toronto’s opening night 1-0 loss to Montreal, Knies-Matthews-Marner outshot opponents 17-6 but couldn’t solve Sam Montembeault, who delivered one of the best single-game performances of the early season.

“It’s the same cast of characters, they have a good team, hunting north of 100 points,” Lightning head coach Jon Cooper said Monday morning of any perceived stylistic differences between Craig Berube and Sheldon Keefe. “I know Sheldon and Craig, two different styles, but they both win. They have some pushback in their game, I’d expect nothing less.”

Matthews is hunting for his shot on every shift and has looked particularly dangerous in transition, either forcing defenders on their heels with the threat of his release, or how he’s generally operated in the offensive third with defences watching his every move. It’s been apparent for several reasons that Matthews commands a true gravity effect and Marner is averaging a point-per-game while function as a stellar playmaker, and the primary defender on elite wingers such as New York’s Artemi Panarin, with Kucherov as his likely main assignment Monday.

As for Knies: he simply needs to produce at a greater rate than a goal and two points through five games due to the calibre of his linemates, but he’s also getting the pucks to his star linemates, he’s functioning well as a puck-retrieval specialist, he’s displayed a willingness to run opponents over, as he was a split second away from scoring Toronto’s goal of the season, before Braden Schneider dislodged him of the puck at the last second. The results will come, he seems due for an offensive explosion in the coming days and weeks.

Monday’s matchup between the Lightning and Maple Leafs’ top lines will largely dictate the result. They’ve both been on fire thus far, and there’s enough to suggest that there’s more in store among six excellent forwards who demand your attention on every shift.

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