Tonight, the McDonald’s Showdown Menu comes to life. What could be more exciting than that? I mean you’d be ignoring the fact that Draisaitl has been his team’s MVP over McDavid and that Marner and Nylander have been carrying the Leafs offensively while Auston Matthews deals with an ongoing injury, but cynicism aside, the two biggest offensive stars in the game over the past decade will be facing off and that is pretty cool. Not as cool as the temperature in Edmonton, but still pretty cool.
In the meantime, here are some thoughts on the Leafs from this week.
Fool me five times shame on you, fool me six times…
Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton, Mark Giordano, Jason Spezza, and Max Pacioretty. The Leafs certainly love their attempts to get the last bit of hockey out of well known veterans. You could even lump Ryan Reaves and Wayne Simmonds into that group if you like. And while some of those situations have gone well, some have been fine, and others decently not good, it has been a habit of the Leafs putting the premium on recognizable names and experience in the past few years when building their teams and hoping that Toronto would be providing those players with one last great shot at glory. It hasn’t worked out and has pushed the Leafs roster up in age and slowed down the team on the ice.
Pretty much all of these players came with an unattainable upside based on the prime of their careers and none of them have pushed the Leafs any closer to having an identity or enabling Toronto to make a splash in the postseason. Maybe it’s time to stop and focus on youth and upside. The Flames (although in a very different situation) have opted to roll the dice recently on Joel Farabee and Morgan Frost being better away from John Tortorella. It’s a gamble but so is going the veteran route. And by going this route, the Flames aren’t going to see their assets completely erode on June 30th. They can commit to building with players who have a lot of hockey left to play. Whether you like Farabee and Frost or not, this was sound business that elicits more excitement than getting in a bidding war for Nick Bjugstad.
Even with players like John Klingberg or Brandon Saad who would not have required giving up a return would have had the Leafs committing to hoping for preset upside based on a dead cat bounce. Putting these players on the roster still requires someone to come out and the Leafs are better off exploring what else they can do.
Players like Ryan Lindgren, Ryan Donato, Trent Fredric, and Jake Evans are by no means prospects but represent options for the Leafs that players at the top of their game or possibly still improving, those targets have a lot more appeal. Potentially any one of these players could be a solution for the Maple Leafs beyond the 2024-25 season as well.
While the trade deadline is pretty limited in the selection available and old habits might die hard, there should at least be a commitment to starting to look at bringing in more players whose age starts with a “2.”
Leafs need puck movement on the blueline
The Maple Leafs have taken a lot of positive strides when it comes to tightening up their play in their own zone and limiting the number of pucks reaching the Leafs net. Unfortunately, and somewhat predictably, this has come at the cost of the Leafs creating offence from their backend and there is a building narrative that this is the Leafs greatest area of need.
I’ll admit I’m not fully bought into this and with Rielly, Ekman-Larsson, and Timmins in the lineup, there are puck moving players, they just haven’t been doing it.
It is also pretty clear that there are limits to what Conor Timmins can do and he has been finding himself on the outside of the lineup more frequently of late.
Before the Leafs make an offensive defenceman a primary trade target at the deadline it seems worth considering a couple of simple questions. “If Morgan Rielly isn’t having success moving the puck in this system, will any puck mover brought in be any more successful?” And “do the Leafs have an internal option they can try?”
The answer to the first question for me is that a newcomer will struggle just as much as Rielly has. The Leafs need to upgrade their blueline but likely via an all-round player rather than one leaning towards offence. The focus on improving the Leafs offence needs to come with the forward group and potentially through upgrading the Leafs centre position.
When it comes to the question of if the Leafs have an internal option, it seems like this is an ideal time to see what Topi Niemela can do.
Like I said in the preceding section, there needs to be some consideration given to testing out younger players and exploring their upside. Niemela is still green and will still be learning on the job but has shown to be more defensively sound than Timmins and likely comes with a similar set of puck moving skills. You can also hold out hope that he’ll figure out the NHL faster than expected but as a sheltered option, Niemela is a player worth exploring rather than being quick to give him up in trade.
Steven Ellis of Daily Faceoff and The Leafs Nation has pegged Niemela as a prospect likely on the move and if Treliving is taking calls on him, it might be best for the Leafs to maintain some mystery about what Niemela looks like in the NHL rather than risk his current value. That move would be understandable. But in the event that Niemela is still in the Leafs’ organization on March 9th, recalling the defenceman to see if he can be an upgrade could be a great way to upgrade the bottom pairing.
The Rantanen trade and Mitch Marner
The Kyle Dubas era has left a lot of people hurting when it comes to pending unrestricted free agents. Too many “own rentals” were just that and the exodus of players like van Riemsdyk, Hyman, Gardiner, and others have led to a lack of confidence that a player approaching free agency will be returning.
The fact that Marner has gone unsigned this long coupled with a rising salary cap and a group of advisors that are hellbent on getting every last dollar out of the Leafs while out of the other side of their mouths saying how Marner is committed to being a Toronto Maple Leaf has complicated the situation too, as has the full no movement clause that has left the Leafs without any power to consider their options on the elite winger.
The Rantanen trade brings a lot of Marner feelings back to the forefront and the fact that Colorado may have inquired about the idea of swapping pending UFAs sparks a slew of “What Ifs…”
The reality is that a Marner for Rantanen swap wouldn’t have made a ton of sense. Rantanen is a different and arguably better player that might be more suited to the Leafs current state but that doesn’t change the fact that there is psychological impact on trading a long term Leaf that might not have sat well in the locker room. The Leafs having another go with Marner probably is better for the team than bringing in a different pending UFA that also seems pretty determined to leverage their UFA status and explore their options.
Looking at a similar situation to what Colorado did with Rantanen with Marner also doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense. For one, the no movement clause that Marner holds is a barrier to say the least and the reality of the NHL is that it is a lot easier to talk players into coming East than to head West, save for potentially playing in Los Angeles, which I wouldn’t rule out as a potential Marner landing spot in the unlikely event that things don’t work out with the Leafs.
It also does still seem most likely that Marner does windup in signing long term in Toronto and it is unlikely that Brad Treliving is in a hurry to tarnish the relationship with Marner and his camp in any way and potentially having to negotiate without having shown good intentions throughout the process.
The last piece that seeing what Marner can do in the playoffs under Craig Berube is a worthwhile experiment and even if it goes sideways and Marner walks in the summer, he is their best short term option. He’s a strong defensive forward on a team lacking 200-foot players. When the team is taking a step back offensively, parting with a top offensive weapon would be perplex. And ultimately if Marner does walk either because of his choice, the team’s choice, or the money just didn’t make sense, it is likely that the Leafs would benefit from the flexibility in free agency more than committing to making something work with the few teams that Marner is willing to go to and the limited return they would offer up.
Colorado is in a different situation than the Leafs. They have their Cup. This season they are sitting in a Wild Card spot as opposed to the Leafs who could potentially win their division by default. The move made sense for the Avs, but trying something similar with Marner seems like taking a step back at the wrong time and is likely to piss off all the people you want to keep happy.