Around the time of the 2023 Stanley Cup Finals, the league all but confirmed that the salary cap for the 2023-24 season would be set at $83.5MM. It is expected to increase by a larger percentage by this time next summer, but a $1MM increase left a lot of teams with limited cap room to improve.
Impressively, after an assortment of trades and a plethora of free-agent signings, there is only one team that remains that is not currently cap compliant for next season. At this time, the Toronto Maple Leafs, even after LTIR space is factored in, the Maple Leafs will still be approximately $3.2MM over the salary cap.
Much of this has to do with the bloated contracts of Auston Matthews, John Tavares, and Mitch Marner, which carry a combined cap hit of $33.14MM, 39.69% of the team’s total financial capacity. There isn’t much concern that those three players are not worth those contracts, but Toronto will have to make a move nonetheless.
Looking at their cap situation, it appears the Maple Leafs have three different options in their approach to becoming cap compliant. The first of those options would be to move out goaltender Matt Murray, who has one-year, $4.688MM left on his current contract. It would not be hurting Toronto too much, as Murray had another disappointing season in 2022-23, and Joseph Woll gave the team some confidence to put him in a backup role behind Ilya Samsonov.
Finding a fit for Murray is going to be much more difficult than coming to the logical resolution of moving him. After a week of free agency, most teams have a full tandem in the net, and it’s hard to consider Murray an objective upgrade over the already established options. Scarcity aside, Toronto would more than likely have to attach a draft pick to entice teams to take on the final year of Murray’s deal, and the Maple Leafs may be unwilling to part with any of their third or fourth-round picks in the near future.
The second option would be for the team to trade forward Calle Jarnkrok and defenseman Conor Timmins for next to nothing. Carrying a combined cap hit of $3.2MM, clearing that out would get Toronto close enough to get crafty during the season. However, one of the major drawbacks of making a move such as this, both players are quality depth players (Jarnkrok being one of the most underrated in the league) and the Maple Leafs have had difficulty procuring players like this recently.
The last option for Toronto, and could become increasingly likely as far as negotiations have gone up to this point, is to move on from winger William Nylander. Nylander, as well as Matthews, are both up for max-term extensions this offseason, and Nylander and the Maple Leafs don’t appear close. In recent reporting, Nylander’s camp is asking for around $10MM a season, while Toronto is prepared to offer between $8MM-$9MM.
It’s tough to say Nylander hasn’t earned the contract that he wants, as he finished second on the team in scoring last season, and fourth on the team during the playoffs. Neither Matthews nor Marner seemed to take a “hometown discount” on their last deals with the team, so it’s unreasonable to suggest Nylander should either. It could become a best-of-both-worlds option for Toronto, as moving out Nylander would not only free up their cap situation but also bring back significant future assets in return.
In his first year as General Manager of the Maple Leafs, Brad Treliving has already made some prudent moves to improve the club. The acquisition of Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi, and John Klingberg should be significant additions, but the work is not close to being done in Toronto.