Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Anthony Stolarz will be out 4-6 weeks and will undergo a procedure Wednesday to remove a loose body which resembles a small pebble from his knee, general manager Brad Treliving revealed.
This development is a terrible scenario for the Maple Leafs, as Stolarz was initially deemed day-to-day, with the idea that he could possibly return after the Christmas break. Stolarz posted a 9-5-2 record with an NHL-best .927 save percentage, while his 2.15 goals against average trails only Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck among all qualified starters.
“I’ve got lots of confidence in our group,” Treliving said. “Joseph has played extremely well. This is nothing new for us; we’ve been dealing with some injuries and that’s why we’ve got depth at all the positions. Joe and Anthony have been tremendous as a pair for us, but we’ve got Dennis and Matt and (Artur Akhtyamov) ‘Double A’ down there, so we feel we’ve got some depth at the position and this is why we’ve have it.”
Toronto has shifted to a defence-first identity under head coach Craig Berube, while the team’s superior goaltending from Stolarz and Joseph Woll is the primary reason why the team sits atop the Atlantic Division.
Here are three keys to the Maple Leafs withstanding Stolarz’s absence:
Joseph Woll is the true No. 1 but needed to be managed accordingly
Joseph Woll has been elevated to co-MVP status for the Leafs alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner and will operate as the true No. 1 goalie. Woll has faced injury issues throughout his career and while he always in line for the highest volume of starts of his NHL career, he will be expected to carry the load, as Dennis Hildeby is a true No. 3 at the NHL level, and is better suited against AHL competition at this point of career, while Artur Akhtyamov isn’t ready for the NHL quite yet, despite a stellar start to his AHL campaign.
Assuming Stolarz’s recovery takes the full six weeks, we can project his return for a January 29 game against the Minnesota Wild. Toronto plays 19 games during that span, and Woll will take on the vast majority of starts. Hildeby should be used against weaker competition, and will be a mandatory option on the second night of back-to-backs.
Here’s what a preliminary projection looks like:
December 18, Dallas Stars — Woll
December 20, Buffalo Sabres — Hildeby
December 21, New York Islanders — Woll
December 23, Winnipeg Jets — Woll
December 27, Detroit Red Wings — Hildeby
December 28, Washington Capitals — Woll
December 31, New York Islanders — Woll
January 2, New York Islanders — Hildeby
January 4, Boston Bruins — Woll
January 5, Philadelphia Flyers — Hildeby
January 7, Philadelphia Flyers — Woll
January 9, Carolina Hurricanes — Woll
January 11, Vancouver Canucks — Hildeby
January 14, Dallas Stars — Woll
January 16, New Jersey Devils — Woll
January 18, Montreal Canadiens — Hildeby
January 20, Tampa Bay Lightning — Woll
January 22, Columbus Blue Jackets — Hildeby
January 25, Ottawa Senators — Woll
This projection will give Woll 12 starts, while Hildeby will get seven starts. It’s an educated guess of course, but the Maple Leafs could also elect to give Woll more starts if he’s in top form, while Hildeby finds his footing at the NHL level. Woll will have to be load managed, while the Maple Leafs will need him to maintain his form as a top-12 goalie this season. This is what the six-week timeline looks like for now, and Woll’s form could dictate the Maple Leafs’ trajectory to begin the 2025 calendar year.
Maintain excellent net-front defence
Toronto’s shift from a high-powered offensive club that led in the NHL in 5-on-5 goals last season under Sheldon Keefe, to a defence-first team with an emphasis on simplicity and north-south hockey under Craig Berube has been the most noticeable tactical change. It will be a complete team effort as the Maple Leafs will need to limit high-danger chances and keep opponents out of Woll’s crease — we don’t imagine Hildeby getting bullied by opponents crashing the net, as he easily towers over them.
Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev have formed one of the NHL’s best defensive pairings and both players are adept at blocking shots, making simple zone exits, skating the puck out of danger and clearing the net-front. Oliver Ekman-Larsson plays with an underrated mean streak, while Morgan Rielly has been carrying Philippe Myers for large stretches of the year. Simon Benoit and Conor Timmins aren’t afraid to be physical either, and the Maple Leafs should have their opponents second-guessing themselves when they attack the goalmouth.
Toronto ranks second in 5-on-5 goals allowed (44), tied for third in high-danger goals allowed at 5-on-5 (23) while ranking fifth in high-danger goals allowed per 60 (0.9 goals) via Natural Stat Trick. It’s imperative to keep pushing opponents away from the net. It’s easier said than done, but there’s been a key emphasis on limiting the quality of opponent chances under Berube’s watch, and this directive becomes all the more important with Stolarz out of the lineup.
Avoid slow starts to lessen Woll and Hildeby’s workload
This one may be striking obviously as the Maple Leafs don’t intend to fall behind early in games, but the fact of the matter is that Toronto often needs a full 20 minutes before fully engaging and picking up its offence. Toronto has been outshot in the first period during four of its last seven contests — including a 16-1 deficit against the New Jersey Devils, where Stolarz’s goaltending kept the club in the game, as it rallied back for an overtime victory.
Stolarz and Woll have often had to keep the Maple Leafs in contests through the opening 20 minutes, before the team settles into a rhythm. During the next six weeks, the Maple Leafs can’t afford to play from behind, especially during a season where the 5-on-5 offence has dried up and outside of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares, Matthew Knies, Bobby McMann and Max Pacioretty, the offence has been virtually nonexistent. It’s easier said than done, but getting out to quicker starts will make the game a lot easier for Woll — and especially Hildeby — to manage.