The Blue Jays start a three-game home series against the Cardinals tonight.
The Cardinals are 74-72, in third place in the NL East and six games back in the Wild Card race.
The Cardinals are second last in the NL in runs scored per game, at 4.11 (Jays are at 4.22). And they are tenth in the NL in runs allowed per game at 4.52 (the Jays are at 4.60 runs per game).
I sent off some questions to lil_scooter93 who is the site manager over there.
As much as I hate to start with the negative question, Nolan Arenado is not having the type of season one would expect of him. What’s going on? With three years left on his contract, do you expect bounce back or has age caught up to him (Speaking as one who is watching much the same from George Springer, I’m wondering if you can give me hope).
Oh boy, making me think right off the bat! It is tricky with Nolan Arenado. Certainly, with him being in his age-33 season, there is some age-related regression going on, and that is part of the issue, but when you look closely at the numbers, it makes me wonder if there is something else. A lot of his offensive stats have stayed pretty consistent, more or less. Some stick out as outliers when he put up those MVP-caliber seasons, but this season doesn’t look too far off the rest, except with power. His career .232 ISO sits at .130 in 2024. And if you look at the actual batted ball numbers his average exit velocity, barrel percentage, and hard hit percentage are all in the 10th percentile of players. Arenado has always been a pull-hitter, but he is hitting to the opposite field even less than before, and though he used to mash fastballs, this season’s slugging percentage against the pitch is just .399.
It is an odd and drastic change that I hesitate to attribute to aging, especially considering the Cardinals’ offense overall has been severely underperforming. Cardinals hitting coach Turner Ward has been the subject of scrutiny this season. Part of me wonders if that could be a factor as well. (Hmm, this sounds familiar.)
Paul Goldschmidt is coming to the end of his contract. Do you expect the Cardinals to re-sign him?
Another tough one. There are differing opinions on this. It certainly feels like a “Cardinals move” to re-sign Paul Goldschmidt, and reports show interest from both groups. My gut instinct says they might. Not a great answer, I know, but if the Cardinals are expecting Goldy to bounce back – and I, for one, do not believe the results this season are entirely indicative of Goldy’s capabilities – then they might be thinking that can get a good deal on a first baseman coming off the work season of his career going into his age-37 season.
Can we have a scouting report on the starting pitchers the Jays are likely to see?
The only one we know for sure looks to be Erick Fedde, but the rotation has been going Fedde, Kyle Gibson, and Miles Mikolas. None of the three are big strikeout guys, and they give up their fair share of homers. They have had success in not walking batters. Fedde likes to lead with either a cutter or a sinker up in the zone and mixes in a sweeper to righties and a changeup to lefties. Kyle Gibson is also a sinkerballer, except he likes to stick to the edges of the zone. He throws a sweeper and a cutter to both lefties and righties. Miles Mikolas pitches in a fashion I consider more traditional. He throws a four-seamer the most, but also throws a sinker and then mixes in a slider that he throws to everyone, though more often to righties (that has been catching a lot more of the heart of the plate than he might like), and he has a changeup to throw to lefties.
The Cardinals (like the Jays) have fallen out of the playoff race. What do you see in the next couple of years? Can they contend, or is it rebuild time?
The Cardinals are likely in for some changes in the future. I don’t see them making anything too drastic next season, in what has been implied to be longtime President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak’s final season before he rides off into the sunset. But I can see a bit of a shakeup after that, depending on 2025. There are some exciting things on the horizon for the team. Masyn Winn has been a bright spot this season, and though Jordan Walker has never seemed to hit his stride, the expectations are that he will develop. Dusty Blake is highly regarded for what he accomplished with the pitching staff this season. I could easily see this team make some adjustments, win 88-90 games in 2025 and make the postseason. If they have a third disappointing season in a row, though, with a major staff turnover? Maybe that is when some big changes are made.
Who is your favourite Cardinal player to watch?
Right now, Masyn Winn has been a joy. The bat has played better than I thought, but the shortstop defense is a lot of fun. The arm is what gets most of the attention, which is fair – he does rank in the 95th percentile in the stat on Baseball Savant – but he also has great range and speed. On the pitching side, Ryan Helsey has been solid for the Cardinals for a few years. His four-seamer averages at 99.6 mph, which makes his slider nearly unhittable. It dives down like a 12-6 curveball and hits an over 50% whiff rate.
You have a former Jay, Steven Marz. What’s his role on the team, and how is he doing?
Steven Matz has spent most of the season injured, which, unfortunately for him, seems to be the story of his career. He has recently returned and put up some solid numbers in his two outings since – 8 2/3 innings in two games with 11 strikeouts. He gave up 5 runs on 3 homers, though. Stuff-wise, he is a pitcher I like to watch. The hope is he can stay healthy enough that we can watch him, though.
What else should we know about the Cardinals or, for that matter, St. Louis? Should we visit?
Oh, St. Louis… The city has had its ups and downs, to be sure, but there is something about it. Maybe it is that mix of Midwestern friendliness with Midwestern toughness – people kind enough to offer help while being too stubborn to accept it? It isn’t a typical tourist destination – it is more of a driving city than somewhere with a thriving downtown area – but there are some great places to visit. You have the bluffs that border the Mississippi River with sprawling views, there is a fantastic and free zoo, and, of course, there’s the Arch. We have gooey butter cake, toasted ravioli, and Ted Drewes frozen custard. I could go on because I love this city. I cannot, in good faith, recommend it as a primary vacation destination – that would probably be a little disappointing, but it is a great place to stop while on your way to somewhere else and sometimes that is just the place you need!
Thank you, Scooter