Part 3: The Cautious Scenario
Last week, I gave an overview of the Blue Jays’ roster and sketched out their financial and trade capital. Today, I want to discuss extensions, and also a scenario in which they decline to go all in for 2025, instead prepping to set up a longer window opening in 2026.
The Extensions
Vladimir Guerrero jr.
Vlad is heading into his final year of arbitration, set to make something on the order of $29m. If the Jays don’t extend him this winter, there’s a real risk that he leaves after 2025 with only a qualifying offer in compensation. That would be a disaster for ownership, who have invested heavily in the stadium and make a fortune off broadcast rights. The Jays’ fan-base is huge but fickle, with attendance and a TV audience that can be near or at the top of the league but also easily fall off. That gives Rogers strong incentive to keep the team compelling, which their recent payroll decisions suggest they fully appreciate. They won’t be inclined to let a charismatic home-grown superstar (who’s technically Canadian, at that) walk.
So what’s he worth? We don’t see a lot of guys with the opportunity to hit free agency at 27, nor do we see a lot of players with both Vlad’s established superstar ceiling and up and down performance. Juan Soto is the obvious comparison, and is set to make half a billion dollars this winter, but I don’t think Vlad could expect to reach that level if he waits for free agency. Soto’s even younger, by a year, and has demonstrated both a higher offensive ceiling and more consistency. He’s also got a little more defensive value as a bad left fielder versus a questionable first baseman, give or take how optimistic you are about Vlad being tolerable at third.
There are three contracts that I think put a floor under Vlad’s value if he were to play out 2025 and have an off year: Brandon Nimmo’s 8 years and $162m, Kris Bryant’s 7 and $182m, and Matt Olson’s 8 year, $168m extension (which bought out two arbitration years). All had performed at levels comparable to vlad’s best and were 30 or younger, but all had flaws. Nimmo had been hurt a bit, Bryant had faded significantly after MVP level play in his early 20s, and Olson wasn’t quite as good and had two arbitration years as team leverage. That they still got into the high $100 millions puts Vlad’s floor, even if he has a 2023 type year, at probably $200m barring a career altering injury.
I also have two ceiling comps: Nolan Arenado’s 9 year, $275m extension and Bryce Harper’s 13 year, $330m free agent deal. Arenado signed it going into his final arbitration year at age 28. Like Vlad he was a 6ish win player at his best, and like Vlad he had a sterling track record of health. A difference is that Arenado had been more consistent, churning out three seasons in a row between 5.8 and 6.0 fWAR before the deal. His deal also includes deferrals that reduce the present value a bit. Harper had been even more inconsistent than Vlad, with injuries and up and down hitting marring his 2016 to 2018 performance, but his 2015 ceiling was on a different level and he was also just 26.
With a very comfortable floor, Vlad will probably feel comfortable stretching towards his ceiling in negotiations. In free agency, following a 2021 level performance, that might look like 13 years and $390m, updating the Arenado and Harper deals for six years of inflation. As a compromise, I’ll suggest that they can extend him now for something on the order of 12 years and $336m, a $28m AAV. Maybe it’s shorter at a higher AAV, maybe they tack on a 13th year and drop the AAV just a little, maybe deferrals inflate the headline number without much upping current value, but in general I think this is where he ends up.
Bo Bichette
Bo’s future is cloudier than his longtime friend’s. He was much more consistent prior to 2024, producing at a pace of almost exactly 4.5 wins per 150 games in each of the first five seasons of his career. His disadvantages are that he’s a year older, coming off a season in which he both battled injuries and was suddenly ineffective on the field, and that his skill set (contact based hitting with good not great power and bad plate discipline, passable but only passable D at short) doesn’t seem poised to age well. Add a couple points to the K rate, subtract a step in the field, and you’re describing Brandon Drury. Bo is better than that, and should stay that way for several years, but while Vlad might be an actual asset into the 2030s, with Bo you’re paying for what you expect in the next 4-5 years.
A pretty good comp for Bo’s potential earnings is Willy Adames. Adames is a different player, a better shortstop with more plate discipline but much higher K rates, but he’s hitting free agency at 29 as a middle infielder who projects for 3.5 wins in an average season and who can get to 5 in good years. That’s Bo, more or less. Expectations are that he’ll make around $150m over 6 years. That’s also what George Springer got as a 30 year old CF who was similar in being a 5ish win player in good years, with a slide down the defensive spectrum coming. Both Adames and Springer were in better positions entering the market than Bo is in now. Another comp is Austin Riley, who signed for 10 years and $212m, giving up three arbitration years. It probably equates to a 7 year, ~$160m deal in free agency. Riley was better than Bo at the time of the extension, but also signed at a time when the team had a lot more leverage. Finally, Olson again. He got 8/$168, giving up two arb years. Olson’s best season was roughly as good as Bo’s, and he was similarly young, but he signed coming off an up year.
All that points to a deal in the neighborhood of six years and $137m (including replacing the $17.5m he’s already signed for in 2025). Maybe a return to form in 2025 could push him closer to $200m in the open market, but then another down year and he’d be looking for a pillow contract. I think the Jays use their leverage here to get five more seasons at an AAV around $24m each.
Alright, with those deals done the Jays have added about $4.5m to their luxury tax payroll (Vlad’s hit actually comes down a little, Bo’s new AAV is up $5.3m). That gives me $36m to work with filling out the rest of the roster, plus the $800k in minimum salary we save each time a minimum player is bumped for a new signing. In this conservative scenario, the Jays are not considering any QO free agents. They’d like to be in the wildcard hunt, but they’re not going for it, and sacrificing good draft picks is off the table.
The firm needs are a backup catcher, a starter, and four bullpen pieces. A bat would help the cause if there’s money left.
Catcher: Travis d’Arnaud’s two years and $12m strikes me as a bargain for a near-starter calibre player, but is slightly steep for the Jays’ needs here. Instead, I’m going to offer one year and $4m to Kyle Higashioka. Higashioka will be 35, but he fits the mold of a backup+ for Kirk, having started over 70 games in three straight seasons. His 2024 offensive surge looks like a mirage, but he’s a consistently adequate hitter with a little pop, and he defends and frames well. Plan B is Yasmani Grandal on the same deal. Again, Grandal hits well for a backup catcher and frames, although the rest of his defence is something of a liability at this point.
Starter: Frankie Montas is my first target. Montas has been bedeviled by injuries throughout his career, although he’s been pretty health three of the past four years. He still sits 96, and while his headline 4.84 ERA in 2024 wasn’t great, there was some neat stuff under the hood. In Cincinnati, he leaned on his fastball and splitter and struggled to a 4.92 FIP with a lowly 19% K rate and 10% walks. The Brewers, after acquiring him at the deadline, de-emphasized the split in favour of his cutter and sinker, which upped his K rate by 10 percentage points and dropped his xFIP to 3.56. Montas is a solid bet to at least churn through 25+ starts in the back of the rotation, and his five pitch mix and big velocity offer more upside than the typical 32 year old journeyman. Fangraphs projects him for two years and $24m, but I’d see if he’d consider one year at $15m with a team option for $16m and a $2m buy out. That both offers an out if they need to change direction next season, and makes him either controllable or flip-able at the deadline if he performs.
Bullpen: Yimi Garcia, 2/$11 is a risky move, as he landed on the IL late in the season with elbow inflamation. Before that, though, he was having an excellent year, and we know the Jays like him. This is a tolerable gamble for a guy who can be a high end setup man when he’s on form, a commodity that draws AAVs closer to $10m. Next is Carlos Estevez for 1/$9. The Angels’ former closer doesn’t miss bats at an elite rate, but he keeps the bases clear and generates loads of pop ups. That’s a skill set the market doesn’t seem to trust, but the Jays have liked it before and I think he offers upside you can’t usually get on a one year deal. In the same style, Paul Sewald for 1/$4 is more of a middle reliever at this point but generated back of the pen type results from 2021 through 2023. Finally, AJ Minter at 1/$7 with a team option for $10m and a $500k buy out offers a high upside lefty option. Minter was a stud in ‘21, ‘22, and ‘23, and while injuries and fly ball luck ruined his walk year he has every chance to return to that form.
Bat: Paul Goldschmidt for 1/$14. Goldy had a rough 2024, and at 37 isn’t likely to command a big deal. He turned things around in the second half, though, posting a 120 wRC+, and he still hits the ball hard without excessive swing and miss. At worst he’s somewhat overpaid as a lefty masher, but I think there’s upside beyond that, and he also adds a still solid glove at first and some sneaky wheels (11-0 SBs last year). This is the rich man’s version of Justin Turner last year: a low risk bet that the former star has a little more in the tank.
Trade: George Springer, Leo Jimenez, and $13m over two years to the San Francisco Giants for a player to be named later. It hurts to see my beloved Leo Jim go, but with Bo extended and Josh Kasevich offering a solid floor as a backup shortstop he was expendable, and getting out from under Springer’s contract is key. The Giants are in transition but are a big payroll team with room in their budget, so Springer at ~$18m a year is possible for them. He’d also constitute an upgrade over their current left field situation, and Jimenez could stabilize second base as former uber-prospect Marco Luciano continues to struggle.
I’ve kept the luxury tax payroll to $245.5m, just into the tax but within range of getting under at the deadline pretty easily if needed. It’s not a great team, but I think it’s a pretty good one. Eyeballing the depth charts, I’d project it for about 37 WAR, which translates to 85ish wins. With some growth from the youth, that could push towards 90, and if it doesn’t work I’ve set them up to enter next off-season with two stars in place and about $75m under the tax to spend as they look towards the future.