Part 1: The Current Situation
For the past couple of seasons, I’ve represented our site at SB Nation’s off-season simulation, hosted by the guys from Royals Review. This year, due to some scheduling issues, the sim had to be cancelled. In lieu of my usual write-up, then, I thought I’d use my prep to walk through what I think the Jays could do this winter. I’ll go through it in four parts. Today, I’ll outline the roster now and the projection into the future. It’s a long post, but bear with me. Tomorrow I’ll lay out the financial situation, touch briefly on the state of the farm, and outline a couple of scenarios. On Tuesday and Thursday next week I’ll dig a little deeper into two of those scenarios and suggest some specific moves I’d like to see.
The Roster Right Now
I’m grouping guys mostly by where they played last year, although as constructed the roster has a lot of guys who are flexible (if you’re optimistic) or who don’t really have positions (to take a less rosy view).
Offence:
Catcher: Alejandro Kirk produces exceptional defensive numbers, and though he’s been average offensively for a catcher the past couple of years, projections still seem to like him to get back to his 2021/22 form and produce at a star-like 3-4 WAR level. He needs a better partner than Tyler Heineman, though. Kirk plays less than a true #1 would, so ideally you’d get a 1B rather than a pure backup. The Jays need to add here.
First Base: In the past four years Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a superstar twice, a plus regular once, and mediocre once. In almost any scenario, the Jays’ plan will rest on 2021 and 2024 being the truth and him delivering 5-6 WAR per year. He might play some (or even a lot of) third base. Most likely first base is set, but locking Vlad down is a priority.
Second Base: A bit of a logjam. Spencer Horwitz had a breakout campaign, with a 127 wRC+ that looks mostly sustainable. He looks like an overall average regular, although one with a limited glove who might have to be shuffled around defensively and protected from good lefties. Will Wagner also debuted in impressive manner before injuring his knee. His problem is that he’s essentially the same player as Horwitz, and while it’s a valuable profile it’s a hard one to play two of at once. Speaking of, Davis Schneider, last year’s hot debut, had an awful sophomore season that culminated in a four month slump. He’s perhaps better at second than Horwitz or Wagner but his lack of contact ability and limited raw power might be too big of handicaps to allow his great plate discipline and knack for barreling the ball to work. He may wind up in Buffalo. Second base isn’t a need.
Shortstop: As with Vlad, any successful Jays team will rely on 2019-2023 Bo Bichette being the truth and 2024 being a blip. He’s worked himself into being a tolerable shortstop, but that might not be his permanent home. He’s also a free agent after this season and has a profile that might not age gracefully, so an extension decision is key. Leo Jimenez struggled a little with the glove in his debut, but he does project as a permanent shortstop, and his plus contact ability and strong discipline should translate into better K and walk rates as he settles into an MLB job, with the potential to be an average regular overall. His 2024 line was pretty good, but it was fueled by an uncanny knack for getting hit by pitches (16 in 210 MLB PA). I admire his grit, but if he’s going to be a regular he should find a less dangerous way of getting on. In the minors, Josh Kasevich doesn’t possess a high ceiling but he’s very likely at least a credible backup and he’s just about ready. Shortstop is a position of depth, but a decision on Bo’s future needs to be made.
Third Base: Another crunch. Ernie Clement exceeded all expectations as the primary third baseman, playing strong D and hitting for a little more power than expected paired with his signature minuscule K rate. The line looks like it had some luck involved, though, and at 29 and with a skill set that doesn’t portend a friendly aging curve he’s not the long term answer. Orelvis Martinez might be. The prospect brought his K rate under control in Buffalo and continued to get to all of his impressive power. The risks (beyond the PED suspension he served in the second half) are his free-swinging approach, which MLB pitcher might be able to pick apart, and the uncertainty about his defensive home (he might fit better at second, and likely isn’t exactly an asset there either). Finally, Addison Barger played almost as much outfield as third, and the grass might be where he eventually lands. He scuffled at the plate, but actually made contact at a nearly average rate, exceeding expectations, and flashed the power that will anchor his offensive game. If he can tighten up his approach (which he’s done before against MiLB pitching) he might hit enough to play any of those positions. Third base has options, but all are risky. Consolidating and upgrading might make sense.
Outfield: Daulton Varsho in centre is the only outfielder the Jays should definitely feel solid about. He’s the best defensive outfielder in baseball, and selling out for pull power helped him get his batting line up to average. A replay of 2024 would work just fine, but then he’s a free agent. Left field is unsettled. Schneider got the most run there in ‘24, but unless his hitting rebounds in a major way that can’t happen again. Right field has belonged to George Springer, but at 35 he’s has seen his hitting decline for five seasons in a row and is no longer a defensive asset. Projections actually expect him to rebound to near 2 WAR next year, but I wouldn’t trust that on a team that intends to compete. Finding a way out of at least some of the two years and $48m left on his deal should be seriously explored. In terms of depth, Joey Loperfido has defensive chops and power but needs to find an approach at the plate. He’s promising but there will be growing pains. Nathan Lukes impressed in his cup of coffee last year. He’s already 30 and lacks power, but contact, plate discipline, and solid defence could make him a quality backup for a couple of years. Alan Roden, The 2022 third round pick, has torched the minor leagues and his combination of patience, contact, and sneaky power give him a shot to be a regular. He probably belongs in a corner but might be solid there. Jonatan Clase has the elite speed to be an impact centre fielder, and offensive tools to start, but everything is very raw and even though he saw MLB time last season the 23 year old is probably best served spending his final option year playing every day in Buffalo. As with second and third, the outfield has a lot of options but only one of the three positions has a slam dunk starter. Corner outfield is the obvious place to spend on a bat.
DH: With more bats than jobs on the infield, this might be filled by committee as it was after Justin Turner was traded, or it might make sense to bring in a big bat to DH and play some first when Vlad plays third. Adding at DH is an option but not a need.
Pitching:
Rotation: Four starters are set. Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt had down years, and they’re old enough that it might represent decline rather than temporary struggles, but they’re well paid and still project as above average so they aren’t going anywhere. Jose Berrios had a good year in terms of ERA, but struggled to get strikeouts in the first half. He pulled it together in August and looks like the quality #2/3 he usually is going forward. In August, Bowden Francis had, by some measures, the best month a starting pitcher ever, posting a 1.05 ERA on the strength of a 0.41 WHIP and a 9.75 K:BB ratio. He cooled off in September but still looks like his new cutter has transformed him into a pop-up machine with solid K:BB numbers who can succeed in the Marco Estrada mold. There’s uncertainty for the fifth spot. Yariel Rodriguez posted tolerable rate stats (ERA 12% worse than league average, cromulent for a #5) but struggled to get through even five innings and battled injuries. He might just work better as a long man. Jake Bloss is promising, but probably needs more seasoning in AAA. Adam Macko had something of a breakout in AA and reached Buffalo to end the year, so while he’s not in the mix early he could be a factor by the all star break if his development continues. Alek Manoah should be as well, if his recovery from “definitely not Tommy John” surgery proceeds as hoped. Trey Yesavage hasn’t made a pro debut yet but last year’s first rounder might roll quickly through the minors. Ricky Tiedemann will also eventually be a factor, though with his Tommy John happening in August it maybe not be in ‘25. The Jays need depth, but probably shouldn’t spend big on a starter.
Bullpen: whew boy. Jordan Romano is expected to be healthy for spring training. He’s the closer, though will need a big rebound. Chad Green scuffled in the second half, but will also be the presumptive setup man. Erik Swanson had a nightmare first half due to both injury and personal circumstances, but thankfully everything turned out OK and he looked more or less like himself after his recall in July. He’s the only top end guy I feel good about. Ryan Burr was an interesting discovery last year. He merged his old, crappy, slider and cutter into a new hard slider that was extremely effective for him. His fastball is straight, so he can get rocked when hitters can lay off the breaker, but he’s shown enough to deserve a job. Brendon little is also sort of interesting, with a bowling ball sinker that gets elite ground ball rates, but he doesn’t really have a good secondary so again he can get knocked around. He has options, so maybe ends up ninth on the depth chart in Buffalo. Tommy Nance, Zach Pop, and Dillon Tate exist. Brandon Eisert and Hagen Danner were OK in Buffalo but failed to kick the door down. The Jays need three quality bullpen arms and would probably feel better with four.
So there’s the shopping list: a backup catcher, a bat that could come from any of the corner outfield, first, third, or DH, a trustworthy back end starter, and half a bullpen. Tomorrow I’ll look at the constraints and resources the team will be working with as it tries to fill those spots.