A look at Vlad’s 2024 season
Coming into Vlad’s sixth MLB season (at just 25 years old), he had one terrific season and four good, but not great seasons. 2023 was looked at as a disappointment, with the years of team control winding down and a big free agent payday looming, 2024 seemed a big year for Vlad (and the Jays).
The question was, would 2024 be another somewhat disappointing year for Vlad?
| Age | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | GDP | HBP | SH | SF | IBB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 159 | 697 | 616 | 98 | 199 | 44 | 1 | 30 | 103 | 2 | 2 | 72 | 96 | .323 | .396 | .544 | .940 | 166 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
Baseball Reference has him at 6.2 WAR and FanGraphs at 5.4, giving the Blue Jays a value of $43.4 million.
He had a .398 wOBA and a 165 wRC+.
His walk rate was up 10.3% (from 9.8). The strikeout rate was down 13.8% (from 14.7).
Vlad’s line-drive rate was about the same as last year (18.5% from 18.4). The ground ball rate was up (48.1% from 46.2). Fly balls down (33.4% from 35.4). More of his fly balls left the park (17.1% from 14.5).
Soft contact was down (12.2% from 15.8), and hard contact was up (41.4% (fifth in the AL) from 36.4).
Vlad hit RHP (.327/.391/.545) and LHP (.308/.417/.539) much the same.
And he hit better at home (.335/.417/.553) than on the road (.313/.376/.536). Last year he was better on the road.
He hit much better in the second half of the season (.376/.450/.678) than in the first half (.289/.360/.457).
Vlad by month:
- April: .229/.331/.348 with 3 home runs, 17 walks and 28 strikeouts in 31 games.
- May: .357/.447/.469 with 2 home runs, 16 walks and 16 strikeouts in 25 games.
- June: .318/.359/.609 with 8 home runs, 6 walks and 16 strikeouts in 28 games.
- July: .358/.407/.705 with 8 home runs, 10 walks and 14 strikeouts in 25 games.
- August: .375/.454/.673 with 6 home runs, 12 walks and 9 strikeouts in 27 games.
- September: .319/.388/.484 with 3 home runs, 11 walks and 13 strikeouts in 23 games.
He hit .298/.375/.477 with RISP.
He was better in high leverage spots (.333/.430/.631) than medium (.316/.394/.471) or low leverage spots (.325/.388/.568).
Defensively?
He had the most errors of any first baseman in the MLB, with 10 for a .990 FA. Of course, it still means he made the plays successfully 99% of the time.
He had a UZR/150 of -2.9, seventh worst in the MLB. His outs above average have him at -9 runs compared to the average first baseman, the worst in the AL.
He also played 100 innings at third base, with 2 errors for a .941 FA (league average .961). UZR had him at a -3.0/150, but Outs Above Average had him at a +1.
I’m not a big fan of his defense, but I’d put him at first and leave him there.
FanGraphs has him at -5.6 runs compared to the average baserunner which would tie him with Salvador Perez for the worst baserunner in baseball.
He had 2 steals, with 2 caught stealing.
By Batting Order Position:
- Batting 1st: 1 games, .000/.500/.000.
- Batting 2nd: 35 games, ..235/.340/.371.
- Batting 3rd: 122 games .349/.412/.595.
By Fielding Position:
- First base: 119 games, .330/.417/.557.
- Third base: 12 games, .404/.440/.553.
- DH: 29 games, .263/.336/.491.
His longest hitting streak was 22 games.
His longest on-base streak was 22 games.
The longest he went without a home run was 21 games.
His longest hitless streak was 4 games.
The team was 73-86 in his starts.
His favourite team to face was the Orioles (.467/.564/.956 with 5 home runs in just 13 games.
His least favourite? Well, he was hitless in 10 at bats vs. the Brewers. He hit .182/.250/.227 in 6 games against the Astros.
Times facing a starter:
- First: .353/.424/.511.
- Second: .344/.415/.603.
- Third: .371/.426/.581.
After a slow start, he was one of the very few bright spots on the team.
I’m not a fan of his defense, at first base or third base. He can make spectacular plays and then blow the easy ones. I’m still against him playing third, but my vote doesn’t count.
I would still like baseball to separate 3-1 assists from other assists. I’d guess he gets more 3-4, 3-6 and 3-2 assists than most first basemen, but there is no proof.
I would love the team to tell him to stop trying to take extra bases and to be a station-to-station base runner. I don’t know it would do any good to tell him, but I wish they would.
A lot is made of his poorer batting stats as a DH, but a) he is going to have to get better at being a DH, he’s going to continue to get 30ish games at the position a year, and b) even hitting worse than he does when he’s playing in the field, he’s still better there than anyone else we have. He needs those days off from fielding, and we need him in the lineup. Players generally figure out what they must do to succeed as a DH. He can do it.
I wouldn’t make much of Mark Shapiro’s not stating Vlad is a generational player. They will be negotiating a contract (I hope), and Mark doesn’t want to put himself into a hole before negotiations start. But Mark, let’s hurry up and sign the guy. Just back the truck up and give him all the money.
Comparing him to his Hall of Fame father through their age 25 seasons, he:
- Is ahead on home runs 160 to 136.
- Is ahead on RBI 507 to 404.
- Is ahead in games 819 to 572.
- Is ahead on bWAR 21.5 to 19.5.
- Dad is ahead on OPS .971 to 863.
I’ve always said that if I had to bet on which Vlad would end up with the better career, I’d bet on the dad because, of course, Dad is in the Hall of Fame. Always bet on the Hall of Famer. But, Junior might make it a race.
SIGN THE MAN. SIGN HIM TODAY.
Before the season, we asked:
- Vlad’s OPS+ will be closer to 117 or 160? At 166, 69% of us were right.
- If the over/under on Vlad’s bWAR is 3.9: 58% of us were right. He was well above it.
- If the over/under on Vlad’s home runs is 30: Well, the house won that one….he had exactly 30 home runs.