A look at Horwitz’s 2024 season.
Spencer Horwitz was a 24th-round pick in the 2019 draft. He had a slow climb up the minor league ladder; 24th-round picks have to prove themselves every step of the way. He showed middling power in the minors, but he also had a good ability to get on base and a good line drive bat. People want to see some power when you are a first baseman type.
Spencer was called up for a few days at the end of June, and then there was a September call-up. In 44 PA, he had a .256/.341/.385 line. It’s not great, but it’s pretty decent for a first look at major-league pitching.
This year? He was called up in early June when Cavan Biggio was DFAed.
| Age | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | GDP | HBP | SH | SF | IBB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 97 | 381 | 328 | 46 | 87 | 19 | 0 | 12 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 70 | .265 | .357 | .433 | .790 | 125 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 Yr | 112 | 425 | 367 | 51 | 97 | 21 | 0 | 13 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 46 | 82 | .264 | .355 | .428 | .783 | 123 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| 162 | 162 | 615 | 531 | 74 | 140 | 30 | 0 | 19 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 119 | .264 | .355 | .428 | .783 | 123 | 13 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
Baseball Reference and FanGraphs had him at 1.9 WAR, giving the Jays a value of $15.2 million.
He had a .344 wOBA and a 127 wRC+.
Spencer’s BABIP was .300.
His walk rate was 11.0%. The strikeout rate was 18.4%.
His line drive rate was 21.0% (just above the team average of 20.0%). Ground ball 42.7%. Fly ball 36.3%. 12.6% of his fly balls left the park.
Spencer’s soft contact was 15.3% (better than the team’s 17.0%), and his hard contact was 30.9% (right at our team average).
He hit RHP (.285/.380/.484) much better than LHP (.194/.272/.250), but he only had 81 PA against lefties.
Horwitz was much better on the road (.298/.383/.480) than at home (.229/.330/.382)/
He was better in his 125 PA in the first half (.311/.408/.472) than in the second half (243/.332/.414) as a pretty much everyday player.
Horwitz by month:
- June: .293/.438/.431 with 2 home runs, 12 walks and 11 strikeouts in 20 games.
- July: .255/.306/.388 with 2 home runs, 7 walks and 20 strikeouts in 26 games.
- August: .255/.349/.468 with 5 home runs, 13 walks and 20 strikeouts in 28 games.
- September: .269/.363/.449 with 3 home runs, 10 walks and 19 strikeouts in 23 games.
With RISP, he hit .268/.391/.352.
In high-leverage spots, he hit .281/.389/.404.
Defensively:
- He played 41 games at first base. He had a .996 FA (league average .993). FanGraphs had him at a 4.9 UZR/150 and +2 Runs Above Average.
- He played 39 games at second base. He had a .982 FA (league average .983). FanGraphs had him at a -5.2 UZR/150 and a 0 Runs Above Average.
As a baserunner, he was -3.7 run compared to the average. He didn’t attempt a steal with the Jays, which seems like a good plan.
Where he hit in games he started:
- 1st: 9 games.
- 2nd: 28 games.
- 3rd: 3 games.
- 4th: 34 games.
- 5th: 8 games.
- 6th: 4 games.
The Jays were 39-47 in games he started. His longest hitting streak was 5 games. His longest on-base streak. The longest he went without a home run was 22 games.
It was a nice start to a major league career.
Defensively, I like him much better at first base, but I’m not against him playing some second.
Spencer had limited at-bats against left-handed pitchers but didn’t make a case that he should have more. Buck continuously talked about how he would be good after lefties, but I don’t expect he looked at the numbers. He didn’t do well in the minors against lefties.
He’s 26 years old (27 in November), so he’s in his prime. When a player comes up to the majors, I expect a progression as they physically mature and learn about the majors. The former part, well, he’s likely as physically mature as he will get.
The latter, he’s been working on pulling the ball, understanding the type of defensive player he is, and he knew he would have to show more power to have a major league career. And he’s done a good job. 12 home runs in 97 work ratio out to 20 home runs in 162 games. In my mind, he won’t play 162 games. I wouldn’t have him out there against lefties.
I’d be happy with a 125 OPS+ for the rest of his career.
It will be interesting to see what happens next year. The team needs more power. The easiest place to add power is first base, but I’d like Horwitz to get playing time next year.
Before the season, we asked:
- Who would you rather see game playing time, Horwitz or Vogelbach? 90% of us said Horwitz. I don’t know why the team thought it would be better to have Vogelbach playing.
- If the over/under on Horwitz’s games played is 25: 64% us were right taking the over.
- In three years Horwitz? 25% said he would establish himself as a Jay. 49% said he would establish himself with another team. 25% said he would still be looking for his shot.