A look at Kevin Gausman’s 2023 season
Kevin Gausman is three years into his $110 million five-year contract. He was signed as a replacement for free agent Robbie Ray (who has had more than his share of injury issues since leaving the Jays).
Gausman’s first two seasons with the team were very good. The third:
Age | W | L | ERA | G | GS | GF | CG | SHO | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | SO | HBP | BK | WP | BF | ERA+ | FIP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
33 | 14 | 11 | 3.83 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 181.0 | 165 | 86 | 77 | 20 | 56 | 0 | 162 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 756 | 105 | 3.77 |
Baseball Reference has him at a 0.9 WAR. FanGraphs 2.9, giving him a value of $22.9 million to the Jays.
He had a 3.77 FIP and a 4.22 xFIP.
Kevin’s BABIP was .281, down from .321 last year. 70.3% of his base runners were stranded, down from 76.6 last year.
His line drive rate was up a little bit (19.5% from 19.0), ground ball rate down (38.35 from 42.6), and fly ball rate was up (42.2% from 38.3). 8.9% of fly balls hit off him left the park, down from 10.7.
His strikeout rate was much lower (21.4% from 31.1%), but his walk rate was about the same (7.4% from 7.2).
Kevin’s soft contact was down a bit (13.6% from 16.5) and hard contact about the same (36.3% from 36.9).
In a switch from last year, Right-handed hitters (.244/.300/.405) didn’t hit him a little better than left-handers (.233/.292/.381). Last year, Right-handers have hit him better in his career.
Gausman was better on the road (2.51, batters hit .218/.275/.344) than at home (5.02, batters hit .255/.313/.434).
And his second half (2.92, .203/.277/.309) was better than his first half (4.50, .261/.309/.444)—much the opposite of the last two years.
Gausman by month:
- April: 6 starts, 1-3, 4.50. Batters hit .281/.320/.491, 4 home runs, 6 walks and 23 strikeouts.
- May: 5 starts, 3-0, 3.76. Batters hit .275/.327/.382, 1 home runs, 8 walks and 33 strikeouts.
- June: 6 starts, 2-4, 5.65. Batters hit .248/.304/.490, 5 home runs, 11 walks and 35 strikeouts.
- July: 4 starts, 3-1, 3.45. Batters hit .196/.252/.308, 3 home runs, 8 walks and 26 strikeouts.
- August: 6 starts, 3-2, 2.89. Batters hit .212/.284/.364, 4 home runs, 14 walks and 28 strikeouts.
- September: 4 starts, 2-1, 2.25. Batters hit .214/.286/258, 0 home runs, 9 walks and 17 strikeouts.
June was pretty tough.
The Jays were 18-13 in his starts. The offense averaged 5.07 runs per start in his game. They scored 3 or less 10 times and 2 or less 7 times.
Days of rest:
- 4 days, 10 games: 2.77, .220/.294/.339.
- 5 days, 15 games: 4.07, .226/.273/.419.
- 6 or more days, 6 games: 5.18, .299/.356/.418.
I’m always happy to see guys do best on regular starts.
Times through the order:
- 1st: Batters hit .247/.315/.410.
- 2nd: Batters hit .226/.273/.391.
- 3rd: Batters hit .259/.312/.397.
- And he faced 20 batters a fourth time, giving up a .111/.200/.167 line.
It’s nice to see that he continues to pitch much the same his third time through the order.
By Catcher:
- Alejandro Kirk: 12 games: 3.03, .220/.276/.343.
- Danny Jansen: 14 games: 4.57, .251/.304/.422.
- Tyler Heineman: 2 games: 0.82, .108/.195/.162.
- Brian Serven: 3 games: 6.23, .346/.417/.635.
Kevin’s best start, by GameScore, was an 86, June 8th, at Oakland. He went 9 innings, 5 hits, 0 earned, 1 walk and 10 strikeouts.
Worst start, a 17, May 11th, vs. at home vs. the Twins. 3.0 innings, 10 hits, 6 earned, 2 walks, and 6 strikeouts.
He averaged 5.8 innings per start.
A bad first half and an excellent second half. As he said, he wasn’t 100% at the start of the season and likely should have started the season on the IL. But then the team had to balance the idea that he wasn’t 100% with the likelihood that even if he was not 100%, he was likely better than anyone we had available to take his place. If Manoah and Rodriguez had been able to pitch at the start of the season, it would have been an easier choice to get Gausman more time to get ready for the season.
But it did take a long time for Kevin to throw like Kevin (though he wasn’t bad in May.
Kevin mixed in a sinker (a new pitch) and the slider he had been throwing the last few years occasionally, to add some variety to his main two pitches (fastball/splitter).
He wasn’t striking guys out like he had in the past. He struck out ten just four times, whereas last year, he struck out ten (or more) nine times. And this year, he had seven or more strikeouts just seven times; last year, it was nineteen times.
Gausman is another starter who has become a better pitcher after the age of 30:
- From his age 30 season on: 52-36, 3.28 ERA in 126 starts.
- In his 20s: 50-66, 4.26 ERA in 203 games, 164 starts.
He turns 34 in January (it hurts me to think of 34 as old) and has two years left in his contract, so it is understandable that Kevin had a rather grumpy interview at the end of the season, saying:
“I’m sick of the ‘talent’ talk,” Gausman said in an interview with the Toronto Sun this weekend, a cardboard packing box filling up beside his clubhouse locker. “We’re so talented, this and that. We’ve got to start winning games. We’ve got to figure it out. We’ve got to do it quickly. I’m only getting older. (Fellow starter Chris) Bassitt is only getting older. If we want it to happen with this group, it has to happen soon. So what are we going to do?”
He was speaking for us all.
Like some of our other starters, Gausman is starting to climb up our franchise leader boards:
- Wins, 23rd: 38. 14 wins next year would put him 11th.
- ERA, 6th: 3.45.
- Strikeouts, 16th. 604. 68 more would put him in our top ten. 200 would put him in 7th.
- Starts, 22nd. 93.
Before the season we asked:
- If the over/under on Gausman’s innings is 180: 74% of us were right (he had 181).
- We asked which starter would have the highest bWAR: 69% picked Kevin. He was third behind Berrios and Francis
- Would Gausman get Cy Young votes again this year? Only 4% were right, saying no.