A look at José Berríos 2024 season
Each year, I look at how each Jays player did during the season. This year, there will be a few guys who didn’t finish the season with the Jays.
José Berríos came to us in a deadline trade in 2021.
Top prospects Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson went to the Twins. Both played most of this season in the majors:
- Martin: 92 games, .249/.315/.345 with one home run, 20 walks and 46 strikeouts, with seven steals.
- Woods Richardson: Made 28 starts with a 4.17 ERA in 28 starts and 133.2 innings. Batters hit .246/.310/.385 against him.
José had a nice finish to 2021, and the club gave him a big contract. But he didn’t have a great 2022, but last year was good.
And this year:
| Age | W | L | ERA | G | GS | CG | SHO | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | SO | HBP | BK | WP | BF | ERA+ | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 16 | 11 | 3.60 | 32 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 192.1 | 168 | 79 | 77 | 31 | 54 | 1 | 153 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 786 | 112 | 4.72 |
The 16 wins were tied for second in the AL.
Baseball Reference has him at 2.2 WAR, and Fangraphs has him at 1.0, giving him a value of $7.9 million to the Blue Jays.
José had a 4.70 FIP and 4.25 xFIP, so the fWAR was much higher than the bWAR.
He had a .253 BABIP (down from 289 last year). 81.4% of the baserunners he allowed were stranded (up from 76.4% last year).
Batters had a 19.9% line drive rate (down from 21.3% last year) against José. His ground ball rate was 43.2% (up from 41.6). And the flyball rate was 36.8% (down from 37.1). 15.5% of his fly balls left the park (up from 12.6).
His strikeout rate bounced back to a career-low of 19.5% (down from 23.5), while his walk rate was up a bit (6.9% from 6.6).
José’s soft contact rate was about the same (15.2% from 15.1). Hard contact was up (34.7% from 31.1).
As you know left-handed hitters (.259/.307/.409) hit him better than right-handers (.214/.294/.404), but not a big a split as last year.
José was better at home (3.18 ERA, batters hit .219/.289/.338) than on the road (4.00, batters hit .251/.310/.469). He was better at home last year as well.
He was slightly better in the second half (2.95, .219/.277/.383) than in the first half (4.01, .246/.277/.383).
Berríos by month:
- April: 7 starts, 4-2, 1.44. Batters hit .204/.280/.316.
- May: 5 starts, 1-2, 4.70. Batters hit .267/.309/.474.
- June: 5 starts, 2-2, 4.85. Batters hit .246/.317/.482.
- July: 5 starts, 2-2, 6.08. Batters hit .264/.358/.406.
- August: 6 starts, 5-1, 2.50. Batters hit .216/.261/.385.
- September: 4 starts, 2-2, 3.68. Batters hit .232/.292/.415.
The Jays were 21-11 in his starts. They averaged 5.11 runs per game in his starts (he seemed to be the guy the Jays would score for). They scored 3 or less runs in 14 of his starts.
Days of rest:
- 4 days, 12 starts: 3.01 ERA, batters hit .215/.279/.381.
- 5 days, 13 starts: 3.10 ERA, batters hit .237/.291/.385.
- 6 or more days: 7 starts, 5.94 ERA, batters hit .270/.359/.504.
He was best on four days rest last year too. I like that.
By catcher:
- Alejandro Kirk: 3.66 ERA. Batters hit .232/.300/.410.
- Danny Jansen: 2.77 ERA. Batters hit .280/.308/.360 (just 13 innings)
Times through the order:
- 1st: Batters hit .268/.319/.472.
- 2nd: Batters hit .208/.276/.319.
- 3rd: Batters hit .224/.307/.419.
- 4th: Batters hit .333/.333/.833 in just 6 PA.
José did pretty good with RISP, holding batters to a .211/.267/.421 line.
His best start, according to GameScore, was a 78 on April 14th, at home against the Rockies. He went 7 innings, allowing 2 hits, 2 walks, and 7 strikeouts.
The worst start was a 20 GameScore. May 7th, going 3.2 innings, allowing 7 hits, 8 earned, 2 walks and 7 strikeouts in Philadelphia.
José averaged 6.0 innings per start.
It was another nice season from Jose, though some of the rate numbers weren’t as good as last year, with the strikeout rate down, walk rate up (a little), hard contact up, and he gave up more home runs. He is likely to get some down-ballot Cy Young votes.
But he kept the other team from scoring much and got some run support.
He turns 31 next May, and he’s thrown a lot of pitches over the years (1213.1 MLB innings in his 20s), which generally isn’t a great side for the future, but he’s a little younger than Gausman and Bassitt. And the team is pretty careful with their starters.
His fastball hasn’t lost anything over the last few years.
We were told that pulling him early in his start in last year’s Wild Card series would cause him issues with the club, but it doesn’t seem to have caused any problems. We always overthink those things: if you are going to be an MLB player, you have to be able to roll with the punches.
Jose won the AL Gold Glove last year. I don’t know how they decide who to vote for, and often, they just pick the name from last year, so there is a good chance he’ll get it again.
He is making $18,714,286 from the Jays for the next two seasons. After that, he has an opt-out, but he is to make $24,714,286 the next two seasons, so I’m guessing he won’t be opting out (he can get an extra $5 million based on performance in the next two seasons.
He’s starting to appear on the Jays leader boards:
- 19th in ERA.
- 18th in wins (14 more would tie him for 10th).
- 22nd in innings.
- 20th in strikeouts.
- 16th in starts (30 would tie him for 9th).
Before the season we asked:
- If the over/under on Berrios’ innings is 175 I’d take the: 74% were right picking the over.
- If the over/under on José’s ERA is 4.10 I’d take the: 90% were right picking the under.
- When it is over we’ll look back at José Berríos seven-year contract as a: 94% said a good idea.