2023 was Daulton Varsho’s first season with the Blue Jays after we picked him in trade from the Diamondbacks for Lourdes Gurriel and Gabriel Moreno.
He didn’t have a great offensive year, hitting just .220/.285/.389 with 20 home runs. But he played terrific defense in both left and center field and had a 3.9 bWAR. The guys we traded away:
- Gurriel: .261/.309/.463 with 24 home runs and a 3.0 bWAR.
- Moreno: .284/.339/.408 with 7 home runs and a 4.3 bWAR.
We hoped for better hitting this year.
| Age | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | GDP | HBP | SH | SF | IBB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 136 | 513 | 459 | 73 | 98 | 21 | 7 | 18 | 58 | 10 | 2 | 48 | 137 | .214 | .293 | .407 | .700 | 98 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Baseball Reference had him at a 5.1 WAR. FanGraphs 3.3 making him worth $26.4 to the Jays.
Daulton had a .304 wOBA (last year .293 ) and a 99 wRC+ (up from 85 last year).
His BABIP was .262 (.256 last year).
Varsho’s walk rate was 9.4% (up from 7.7 last year), and his strikeout rate was 26.7% (up from 23.5).
His line drive rate was way down (15.0% up from 20.3). The ground ball rate was much the same (32.2% from 32.5). And fly ball rate was up (52.9% from 47.2). 110.8% of his fly balls left the park (about the same as last year’s 11.2).
Soft contact was up (22.2% from 19.7), and hard contact was about the same (29.9% from 29.3).
Varsho hit LHP (.287/.356/.457) much better than RHP (.195/.277/.395) for the second year in a row. In his career, he is a little better vs. RHP.
A switch from last year, he hit much better at home (.225/.300/.442) than on the road (.202/.286/.373).
Daulton hit better in the second half of the season (.233/.308/.405) than in the first half (.203/.285/.405).
Varsho by month:
- April: .233/.324/.500 with 6 home runs, 12 walks and 26 strikeouts in 30 games.
- May: .174/.260/.372 with 4 home runs, 10 walks and 24 strikeouts in 22 games.
- June: .191/.244/.333 with 1 home run, 5 walks and 27 strikeouts in 25 games.
- July: .197/.287/.382 with 2 home runs, 10 walks and 24 strikeouts in 25 games.
- August: .281/.361/.469 with 4 home runs, 9 walks and 25 strikeouts in 26 games.
- September: .148/.207/.296 with 1 home run, 2 walks and 11 strikeouts in 8 games.
April and August were good.
With runners in scoring position, Daulton hit .210/.294/.495. In high-leverage spots, he hit .310/.380/.718.
On defense?
He played 94 games, 672 innings in center field with 1 error, for a .995 FA (league average is .990). He had a 16.6 UZR/150 in center. He was +5 in outs above average.
He played 67 games, 404.1 innings in left field with 1 error, for a .991 FA (league average .987). He had a 16.2 UZR/150 and a +10 outs above average.
He also played 9 innings in right.
In total, in the outfield, Varsho had a 16.8 UZR/150 and a +16 Outs Above average.
He leads MLB outfielders in UZR in the outfield and is tied for second in Outs Above Average (Jacob Young from the Nationals had a +20).
Daulton was 1.6 runs above average as a baserunner. He was 10 for 12 as a base stealer.
Varsho’s spot in the batting order:
- 1st: 2 games: .000 OPS
- 2nd: 39 games: .730 OPS
- 3rd: 1 game .000 OPS.
- 4th: 9 games: .555 OPS.
- 5th: 27 games: .774 OPS.
- 6th: 17 games: .552 OPS.
- 7th: 20 games: .881 OPS.
- 8th: 5 games: .356 OPS.
- 9th: 3 games: 641 OPS.
How many players started games in every spot in the batting order this year?
The Jays were 56-67 in games he started. His longest hit streak was 10 games. Longest on base streak was 23 games.
His favourite team to play? Well, just 3 games, but he hit .375/.375/1.125 with 2 home runs against the Rockies.
His least favourite? He hit .000/.091/.000 in 3 games vs. the Dodgers or .162/.225/.189 in 10 games vs. the Rays.
Varsho is a prime example of why chasing hot streaks when setting up the batting order is a mistake. Daulton had a very nice April and was moved up to the upper part of the order. Then, he had terrible May, June, and July.
I like Daulton a lot, but he’s a back-of-the-lineup hitter. No matter how hot he’s been the last week, he shouldn’t be hitting in the top five. We should know by now that a hot stretch is not a sign of future performance.
I hate that, when a player has a good month, we get stories on how he figured things out, which teammate pointed him in the right direction. This one is from July when he had already fallen into a slump again for the past month. I want the reverse story of which teammate gave lousy suggestions that caused him to forget how to swing the bat.
It would be nice if he could be consistent (or consistently good). An entire season with numbers like his August, and we’d have an MVP candidate with his defense. Of course I’m as streaky as anyone, I just don’t have the equivalent of Baseball Reference to shout it out to the world.
Playing center field takes some of the strain off his bat. A league-average bat plays a lot better in center than in left.
He has had his rotator cuff surgery. There is no word yet on timelines, but odds are he might miss some of spring training and maybe the start of the season, which would give one of the young outfielders a chance to show off.
There are also questions about how long it will take for him to get back to 100%. It will be hard to tell, as his seasons are a mess of hot and cold streaks.
He’s 27 and turns 28 in the middle of next season, so he should have lots of baseball let in him, and hopefully, there will be a season soon where he will put it all together.
Before last season, we asked:
- If the over/under on Varsho’s OPS is .740: 21% of us were right saying under.
- If the over/under on Varsho’s bWar is 4.4: 40% were right saying over (5.1).
- If the over/under on Varsho’s games played in center field is 70: 40% were right taking the over.