Bowden and Trevor Richards came to us in a trade from the Brewers for Rowdy Tellez in July 2021, so he’s been in the Jays organization for a little while now.
Francis only got into one game with the Jays in 2022. In 2023, he made 20 relief appearances with a 1.73 ERA in 36.1 innings (more than an inning per appearance? That’s allowed?).
This year? He started the season on the IL. He was activated on June 4th, sent to the minors on July 14th and then called up for good on July 29th.
| Age | W | L | ERA | G | GS | GF | CG | SHO | SV | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | SO | HBP | BK | WP | BF | ERA+ | FIP | H9 | HR9 | BB9 | SO9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 8 | 5 | 3.30 | 27 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 103.2 | 74 | 41 | 38 | 17 | 22 | 0 | 92 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 408 | 122 | 4.36 | 6.4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 8.0 |
Baseball Reference had him at a 1.6 WAR, and FanGraphs at 1.0, making him worth $7.7 million to the Jays.
He had a 4.36 FIP and a 4.17 xFIP.
Bowden’s BABIP was .211. 78.3% of his base runners were stranded.
His line drive rate was 19.2%. Ground ball rate 34.3%. Fly ball 46.5%.
His soft contact was 17.1%. Hard contact 34.1%.
Bowden was hit about the same by right-handed batters (.194/.244/.379) as left-handed batters (.199/.263/.363).
And he was about the same at home (.199/.262/.368) as on the road (.194/.246/.374).
And, of course, Francis was much better in the season half of the season (1.80 ERA, .140/.188/.294) than the first half (5.82, .276/.341/.481).
Francis by month:
- April: 2-2, 8.59 ERA in 5 games, 2 starts. Batters hit .300/.382/.550 with 4 home runs in 68 PA.
- May: Didn’t pitch in the majors.
- June: 1-0, 2.84 ERA in 8 games, 1 start. Batters hit .253/.288/.387 with 2 home runs in 80 PA.
- July: 1-0, 6.75 ERA in 4 games, 1 starts. Batters hit .286/.362/.643 with 4 home runs in 47 PA.
- August: 4-1, 1.05 ERA in 6 games, 5 starts. Batters hit .089/.128/.188 with 3 home runs in 118 PA
- September: 0-2, 2.16 ERA in 4 starts. Batters hit .171/.232/.341 with 4 home runs in 95 PA.
As a starter: 5-4, 2.92 ERA. Batters hit .166/.221/.347 with 13 home runs in 13 games, 290 PA.
As a reliever: 3-1, 4.39 ERA. Batters hit .274/.333/.434 with 4 home runs in 14 games, 118 PA.
The Jays were 6-7 in his starts.
Times through the order in his starts:
- First: Batters hit .193/.248/.477.
- Second: Batters hit .146/.214/.214.
- Third: Batters hit .123/.153/.211.
- Fourth: 2 PA, both times he gave up a home run.
Bowden by Catcher:
- Danny Jansen: 9 games, 22 innings, 2.45 ERA. .244/.283/.361.
- Alejandro Kirk: 9 games, 30.2 innings, 4.99 ERA. .226/.288/.478.
- Brian Serven: 9 games, 51 innings, 2.65 ERA. .153/.216/.307.
His best start by Game Score was the one-hitter against the Angels in Anaheim on August 24th, when he had an 85 GameScore. He went 8 innings, plus one batter, who hit a home run, with 3 walks and 12 strikeouts. He had five game scores over 70.
Worst start? April 1st in Houston. He had a 26 GameScore. In 5.1 innings, he gave up 10 hits, 3 home runs, 7 earned, 1 walk and 7 strikeouts.
He averaged 5.9 innings per start.
Bowden had a terrific finish to the season. In his last eight starts, he had a 1.33 ERA with batters hitting .116. In one of those last starts, Dan asked Buck if Francis had earned a spot in the rotation next season, and Buck said no, that he had to earn it in spring training. I don’t understand that; someone who puts together a stretch of starts like Francis has shown that he should be in the rotation. I can’t see that a few spring innings should change that.
I can’t imagine he’ll have an entire season of pitching like he did over that last month of the season. If he did, he’d be a Cy Young candidate, and that seems to be expecting too much. But I don’t see why we shouldn’t expect him to be a good mid-rotation guy.
At the start of the season, I thought Bowden could make a good long reliever if we were to use a pitcher in that way, but he’s shown he can be much more valuable than that.
Before the season, we asked:
- If the over/under on Bowden’s innings pitched is 45: 68% were right taking the over.
- If the over/under on Bowden’s ERA is 4.50: 86% were right taking the under.
- If the over/under on Bowden’s career innings pitched is 300: We don’t know that one yet, but he is at 140.2 innings now. He should get to 300 easily, if not next year, likely the season after. 64% took the over.