The season that was: Bo Bichette

Taking a look at Bichette’s 2024 season.

Coming into this season, after five years in the MLB, I thought we knew what Bo would give us this year. An OPS in the low .800s, OPS+ in the 120s. Defense that’s not quite as good as you’d expect, given his athletic ability, but after we consider his offense, we can live with it.

We knew there would be hot steaks and cold stretches, but all in all, it would balance out almost the same as last season.

Or, so we thought:

Baseball Reference had him at a -0.3 WAR (down from 4.9). FanGraphs at 0.3 (down from 3.9), giving him a value of $2.5 million to the Jays.

He had a .264 wOBA and a 71 wRC+.

Bo’s walk rate was 6.0% (up from 4.5% last year), and his strikeout rate was 19.0% (19.1 last year).

His line-drive rate was 22.1% (down from his 27.4 last year), ground ball rate was 47.8% (up from last year’s 46.1) and fly-ball rate 30.1% (up from 26.5 last year). His fly balls were leaving the park 5.3% of the time (down from 16.5).

Bichette’s soft contact was up (18.1% from 13.6), and hard contact was down (30.5% from 36.0).

His BABIP was way down (..269 from .355).

Bo was much better vs. RHP (.242/.296/.353) than LHP (.153/.194/.186). Last year he was much better against LHP, and the year before much better against RHP.

Bo hit better on the road (.246/.296/.317) than at home (.201/.255/.326).

With RISP, he hit .349/.408/.439, which is so much better than he hit the rest of the time.

After two strikes, he hit .179/.245/.290

Bo by month:

• April: .213/.271/.306 with 1 home run, 8 walks, and 18 strikeouts in 28 games.
• May: .280/.321/.410 with 3 home runs, 4 walks and 16 strikeouts in 25 games.
• June: .194/.260/.269 with 0 home runs, 6 walks and 16 strikeouts in 18 games.
• July: .129/.177/.194 with 0 home runs, 2 walks and 13 strikeouts in 9 games.
• September: .400/.400/.400 with 1 strikeout in 1 games.

Defensively he had 7 errors in 81 games at short, for a .971 FA (league average .972).

FanGraphs has him at a 1.8 UZR/150 and a +1 in Outs Above Average, both better than he has been in the past.

As a baserunner, he was a -0.4 runs. He was a negative baserunner the year before, too. He stole 5 bases, caught once.

Where Bo hit in the batting order:

• 1st: 9 games.
• 2nd: 4 games.
• 3rd: 29 games.
• 4th: 30 games.
• 5th: 6 games.
• 6th: 3 games.

The Jays were 39-42 in games he starts.

His longest hitting streak was 7 games, and his longest on-base streak 8 games.

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When Bichette started slowly with the bat, I wasn’t worried because he had done that before and managed to bring his numbers back up to his usual. I went through the first couple of months of the season thinking all would be good in the end (and he had a decent May).

And then June was terrible. In July, he went on the IL, came off for one game, and went back on the IL, returning in September, playing one game, and then breaking a finger during fielding practice.

I have worried that Bo’s bat might not age well. He doesn’t control the strike zone, and he gets by on terrific reflexes, great hand-eye coordination, and a quick bat. Players like that tend not to age well. There are exceptions, but players who age well tend to control the strike zone.

That said, I didn’t expect he could go from an excellent batter to a poor batter in one year.

So, did the drop-off in offensive numbers happen because of the calf injury? Was it a nagging injury that caused him troubles at the plate before it got bad enough that they had to put him on the IL?

I guess there is a second question. Will the calf injury be something that causes him problems in the future. We have seen players have leg issues that basically ruined their careers. Brett Lawrie, Vernon Wells, Josh Donaldson come to mind.

We have three possibilities :

• Bo suddenly got old.
• Bo was injured.
• Or it was just an off-year, and he can bounce back. Even the most consistent players can have a poor year.

The more important question is whether Bo will return to normal next year. I don’t know what the betting odds should be.

The team has a decision to make on Bichette:

• Trade him this off-season, but his value is down.
• We plan to trade him at the deadline, but that depends on his bounce back. If his trade value is down now, it will be through the basement if he has the same season next year.
• We plan to sign him to an extension next season, which would depend on how he plays and whether Bo is willing to sign with the Jays.
• Plan on going to the end of the season and hope to sign him.
• Go to the end of the season, give him a qualifying offer, and take the draft pick, which again would depend on how his 2025 season goes.

If Bo goes back to being Bo, tough decisions will come. The decisions aren’t as hard if he doesn’t bounce back, but there is no upside.

Bo is #23 on our all-time home run list and #36 in games played.