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The Blue Jays’ 2022 draft has the makings of a good draft

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The Toronto Blue Jays development hasn’t been great under the Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins regime.

Up until recently, neither has their drafting. From the 2016 draft until the 2021 draft, only one of their first-round picks has found any type of success at the big league level, as Alek Manoah stands out thanks to a Cy Young Award nomination. Even then, his past two seasons have been rough partially due to poor performance in 2023 and injury in 2024.

T.J. Zeuch (2016 first round), Logan Warmoth (2017 first round), Jordan Groshans (2018 first round), Austin Martin (2020 first round), and Gunnar Hoglund (2021 first round) haven’t done all that much in their big league career. In fact, Warmoth and Hoglund haven’t appeared in a big league game yet, although the latter will at some point in the next couple of seasons.

 

Altogether, those five players have accumulated -1.1 fWAR, with none of those players being at a plus fWAR. With that being said, the Jays did find some players outside the first round in each of those drafts.

Their first good draft since taking over in 2016 was the 2022 draft. Now yes, they could’ve done much better, as their first-round pick has barely pitched, while their two compensation picks at the end of round two haven’t developed all that well. What’s worse is that MLB Pipeline’s second-best prospect, Roman Anthony, was selected by the Boston Red Sox just one pick after the Blue Jays had back-to-back compensation picks.

Still, the 2022 draft wasn’t bad by any means as it could produce a handful of important pieces for the Blue Jays in the coming seasons. Let’s take a look at the 2022 draft.

The Blue Jays first nine picks of the 2022 draft have a chance at becoming big leaguers

Their first-round pick, the 23rd overall pick, was used to select Brandon Barriera. The talent is there but he just hasn’t remained healthy in his professional career. He’s thrown just 21.2 innings in two seasons and is currently on the shelf due to Tommy John surgery. The good news is that the left-handed pitcher is still just 20 years old with a March birthday, so there’s still time to regain his stock.

With the 60th overall pick, the Blue Jays selected Josh Kasevich. While he’ll never be a power-hitter, he led the entire organization in doubles last season and hits for average while rarely striking out. He’s also an excellent defender at shortstop and has a great work ethic. Expect to see him with the Blue Jays in the next couple of seasons.

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The two players selected with the compensation picks have struggled in their professional careers, and it’s not helped that Roman Anthony was picked immediately after. Tucker Toman was the first to be picked with the 77th overall and he most recently slashed .221/.301/.318 with four home runs in 326 plate appearances in Single-A with a high 31.9 K%. Like Barriera, he’s still young as he turned 21 in November. He needs a good season, though.

Immediately following Toman, the Blue Jays used the 78th overall pick to select LSU’s Cade Doughty. The infielder came out the gates mashing, hitting six home runs in 119 plate appearances in Single-A, followed by 18 home runs in 424 plate appearances (albeit with a 29.7 K%) with the Vancouver Canadians in 2023. Unfortunately, his 2024 season was plagued with injuries, and in Double-A, he slashed .213/.248/.287 with one home run in 114 plate appearances. Like Toman and Barriera, he needs a better 2025 season.

Alan Roden was the polar opposite though, as he’s one of the best Blue Jays prospects. Already having one of the best hit tools in the organization, the 25-year-old outfielder slashed .293/.391/.475 with an improved 16 home runs in 530 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A last season. He’s a darn good prospect – one of the best the Jays have had for a while.

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Ryan Jennings has quietly become a starting pitching prospect worth watching in the coming seasons. Last year between High-A and Double-A, he had a 1.93 ERA and a 3.34 FIP in 60.2 innings pitched, with a 26.7 K% and a 9 BB%. He didn’t slow down in the Arizona Fall League either, as he didn’t give up an earned run in 10 innings pitched with a 36.8 K%.

Due to the Blue Jays needing to overslot Toman, they picked two relievers with their fifth-round pick and their sixth-round pick, and both players will more than likely appear in the big leagues at some point. First up was left-handed pitcher Mason Fluharty, who had a 3.63 ERA and a 4.15 FIP in 67 innings pitched last season with the Buffalo Bisons. Despite being a soft-tossing lefty, his K% sat at an impressive 27.4% with a 9 BB%. If the Blue Jays need a left-handed pitcher in the bullpen, he could be the first one to be called up.

T.J. Brock was selected in the sixth round of the draft and when he’s firing, he’s impressive. Reaching the upper 90s with one of the best sliders in the organization, he had a 4.78 ERA and a 3.76 FIP with a 37.3 K% and a 9.1 BB% in 52.2 innings pitched in 2023. However, he pitched just 11.1 innings in the minor leagues last season and seven innings in the Arizona Fall League (where he didn’t give up an earned run). Sadly, he’ll miss the entirety of the 2025 season as he got Tommy John at the end of the season.

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Peyton Williams is one of the Blue Jays best power hitters in the system. Last season, he hit 11 home runs in 334 plate appearances while slashing .289/.362/.476 with the High-A Vancouver Canadians. Standing at 6’5”, 255 lb, the first baseman has some of the best exit velocities in the organization.

Those nine players all have a shot at making the big leagues to a varying degree and some won’t make it. Three of them, Barriera, Toman, and Doughty have to have good seasons in the next couple of years to regain their stock. However, some later-round picks are worth noting as well.

Other picks worth noting

Such as ninth-rounder Devereaux Harrison. After starting just a handful of games at the collegiate level, the right-handed pitcher started 16 games in 26 appearances in 2023 where he had a 2.95 ERA and a 5.10 FIP in 94.2 innings pitched. His 131.2 innings pitched with the Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats were the most in the organization by nearly 20 innings and the most thrown by a pitcher in the Blue Jays minor league system since Yennsy Díaz’s 144.1 innings in 2019. His 4.65 ERA and 4.75 FIP weren’t great, but he’s a starter worth monitoring.

The Blue Jays selected two high school pitchers worth noting in rounds 11-20, one of which is Nolan Perry. Last season, the 21-year-old had a 2.93 ERA and a 4.25 FIP in 46 innings pitched in Single-A with a 27.5 K% and an 18.8 BB%. Like so many pitchers in the organization, he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2024.

Speaking of Tommy John surgery, it took Bo Bonds a while to pitch for the Blue Jays after getting the surgery, but his 2024 season was encouraging. Split between Single-A and High-A, Bonds had a 4.28 ERA and a 3.10 FIP in 40 innings pitched with a 35.7 K% and an 11.3 BB%. Out of 91 pitchers in the organization with a minimum of 20 innings pitched, his K-BB% of 24.4% ranked fourth.

One player who is no longer in the organization but is worth noting is catcher Sammy Hernandez. Traded to the St. Louis Cardinals for Génesis Cabrera, Hernandez slashed .255/.373/.365 with four home runs in 383 plate appearances between Single-A and High-A for a 119 wRC+. He’s also strong defensively and this trade may bite the Jays in the butt in the future.

Lastly, Gage Stanifer was selected in the 19th round out of high school. Unlike Nolan Perry, he hasn’t quite found the success yet, posting a 6.34 ERA and a 5.27 FIP in 59.2 innings pitched in Single-A last season. There was about a month where he pitched incredibly well, posting a 1.29 ERA and a 3.89 FIP in 21 innings pitched from May 12 until Jun. 9. The 21-year-old recently touched 100 mph on the round and has a nasty splitter. He’s definitely worth watching to see how he develops.

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In conclusion

While early signs the Blue Jays whiffed on their first four picks, it’s not too late for those players to turn around their careers. Not just that, the Blue Jays found players who could impact the big league level in the coming seasons with picks in the later rounds.

Although no player has yet to make their big league debut, the 2022 draft has the makings of a good draft if all goes well

As always, you can follow me on Bluesky @ryleydelaney.bsky.social.

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