Blue Jays fans were understandably more than a little upset on Tuesday when they learned that the club failed to reach an extension with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ahead of the start of spring training. Some time ago Guerrero Jr. indicated that an extension needed to be worked out before the 2025 spring schedule began, and that day has now come without a new contract for the face of the franchise.
Naturally, baseball writers and fans across the country are now asking what comes next for the Jays as they look ahead to the 2025 season. The winter was filled with a lot of disappointment between the pursuits of Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Rōki Sasaki, and more, and all along it felt like locking up Guerrero Jr. for the long term would be the solace we all needed ahead of a new season. However, now this group is left with even more questions than there were after finishing last season with a 74-88 record, and the future looks cloudier than ever.
It’s not just the threat of Guerrero Jr. leaving at season’s end that could be rapidly closing the window of contention for the Blue Jays. The 2x Silver Slugger award winner will be accompanied by his co-star, Bo Bichette, when free agency opens, meaning that the Jays could lose their best two offensive players for nothing more than a couple of compensation picks. In addition to those two cornerstones, Chris Bassitt is in the final year of his contract, Kevin Gausman has just two years remaining, and José Berríos could opt out after the 2026 campaign. The list goes on, and unfortunately, their farm system isn’t exactly packed with MLB-ready future stars capable of filling their shoes.
For a front office group that has preached about building a sustainable winner, it’s hard to reconcile where things stand as of today. The Blue Jays are running a franchise-record payroll in 2025, and right now Fangraphs’ ZIPS projections have predicted that they will finish in the basement of the AL East. We’re at that stage in the journey where moving forward seems like a questionable idea at best, but it’s far too late to turn back.
So what do the Blue Jays do at this point? It would seem that the front office has accepted that this may very well be the last hurrah, for this core group, and likely for this front office. Barring some significant postseason success, it’s hard to imagine that the leash for Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro’s front office group could be extended any further, and failing to keep Guerrero Jr. around for the long term is just the latest gaffe from the Blue Jays’ braintrust.
However, the malpractice they’ve displayed while handling Guerrero Jr’s contract situation over the last few years will likely have a lasting impact in more ways than one and stands out among the errors that have been made over the last decade. Granted, it’s still possible that they could keep Guerrero Jr. at the end of the day, but there’s no doubt that the temperature among the fan base has already changed after Tuesday’s news that there is no long-term extension in place between the two parties.
For now, all we can really do as fans is try to ignore the bigger picture and enjoy what’s in front of us at the moment. On the plus side, the Jays did spend some money on reinforcements over the winter, adding Anthony Santander and his 44 home runs to their outfield mix, one of the best defensive infielders in the world in Andrés Giménez, a talented new closer in Jeff Hoffman, and more. There are legitimate reasons to believe that the Blue Jays can be playoff contenders in the American League in 2025, but a lot of breaks will have to go their way to get the first postseason win for this core, let alone a championship banner.
Beyond 2025? Well, that’s a whole other question.
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