As the Juan Soto decision nears, the expected contract seemingly continues to climb. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the price could push to $700MM. Heyman suggests that the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays may all be near that mark. The Dodgers are also a finalist, but various reports have put them as the least likely of the quintet to land him.
On Tuesday, The Athletic reported that multiple teams had made offers at or above $600MM. Agent Scott Boras said at the time that Soto had begun to narrow the field, though he didn’t specify a timetable for his decision. Most reports indicate he’s likely to sign by the end of next week’s Winter Meetings, perhaps as soon as this weekend.
According to Heyman, teams have continued to adjust their offers in recent days. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported last night that the Red Sox were hoping for a final meeting with Soto’s camp to get the outfielder to name the specific price at which he’d put pen to paper. It’s not clear if Soto would grant any team that sit-down.
Shohei Ohtani’s deal was initially reported as a 10-year, $700MM contract. The extreme nature of the deferrals in the Ohtani deal, which were reported a few days after he announced he was signing with the Dodgers, dramatically reduced the net present value. MLB valued the contract around $461MM for luxury tax purposes. That’s still an all-time record. Soto was unquestionably going to beat $461MM and widely expected to go well beyond $500MM. (MLBTR predicted a 13-year, $600MM contract at the beginning of the offseason.) Getting to $700MM without deferrals would shatter prior contractual precedents.
Ohtani’s $46.06MM annual salary — again adjusting for deferrals — is the record for average annual value. Bryce Harper’s 13-year contract is the longest free agent deal in history. Soto would likely need to break both records to get to $700MM — potentially on a 14-year deal at $50MM annually. It shouldn’t be much longer before we learn if the market will go to those heights.