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Rival Preview: After a very active offseason, the New York Yankees look to return to the World Series even after losing Juan Soto to free agency

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We’re kicking off our American League team previews with the New York Yankees, a franchise that now accepts well-groomed beards rather than clean-shaven faces only. The steam from that situation will cool down eventually, especially when MLB fans care far more about how the Yankees will do now that Juan Soto is across the street.

2024 Season Recap

While it was the Yankees and Orioles pacing the American League East, the former led the division for 145 calendar days. They finished with a record of 94-68, and they won their third division crown in the last six seasons.

Behind postseason series wins against the Royals and Guardians – with some historic clutch moments in the latter tilt – the Yankees made their first World Series since 2009. Despite ultimately falling to the Dodgers in five games, it ended a long World Series drought for a franchise that has boasted some of the league’s best players since their last appearance.

Whether you love or hate the Yankees, it’s hard to deny that the list of words to describe Aaron Judge is running short. Judge slashed .322/.458/.701 with a 1.159 OPS, 58 home runs, 144 RBIs, 133 walks, and 33 doubles. The 2024 line on his Baseball Reference page is littered with italicized and bold font, and every stat from the previous sentence was a career-high except for the home runs, falling just four short of his personal best from 2022. He won his second AL MVP award (both within the past three seasons), and he also won his fourth Silver Slugger award.

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Dominance from Judge is starting to become commonplace, but a unique aspect of his 2024 was that he hit next to another generational talent in Juan Soto. Acquired via trade last offseason, Soto put together a great regular season before free agency, hitting .218/.419/.569 with a .989 OPS, 41 home runs, 109 RBIs, 129 walks, and 31 doubles.

Soto and Judge were phenomenal, but the Yankees felt a couple of bumps in the road last season as far as getting production beyond those two. They acquired Jazz Chisholm Jr. at the trade deadline from the Miami Marlins to help supplement this and he filled in nicely in his 46 games as a Yankee. His .825 OPS in those games would’ve been the second-highest of his career had it been qualified, and his .273 batting average would’ve been the highest.

The depth of New York’s lineup was still a flaw; the likes of Alex Verdugo, Anthony Volpe, and Anthony Rizzo didn’t move the needle much. Judge and Soto’s performances were able to keep the offence above water, and at the end of the day, it came down to New York having #22 and #99, and the other team not.

The Yankees tied for sixth in the MLB in team ERA, even with their ace Gerrit Cole missing the first two-plus months of the season with an elbow injury. Cole still held a respectable 3.41 ERA through 17 starts with a 1.13 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, and 2.7 BB/9. It was the first time in his career he made less than 19 starts in a full 162-game season.

One of the biggest stories of New York’s rotation last year was the breakout of Luis Gil. The 26-year-old righty, who was acquired from the Minnesota Twins in 2018, pitched a near-full workload for the first time in his young career. Since making his major league debut in 2021, Gil bounced between triple-A and the majors and also missed nearly two full seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery. He put all of that behind him last season, winning the AL Rookie of the Year honour behind a 3.50 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and a 10.1 K/9 through 29 starts last season. Leading the league in walks is an issue that needs to be corrected, but Gil’s season was a big deal given Cole’s absence.

Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes both had solid seasons as well on the mound. In Rodón’s case, he was able to avoid an IL stint all year, and he finished the regular season strong bringing his ERA to 3.96 after a mid-season funk.

New York filtered through many relievers last season, but their biggest story of note was handing more high-leverage innings to Luke Weaver. Usual closer Clay Holmes still finished 50 games on the season and amassed 30 saves, but 13 blown opportunities and a 6.00 ERA in 12 September outings didn’t give the Yankees a ton of confidence heading into the postseason. Weaver earned four saves in September and pitched to a 0.92 ERA over his final 17 games of the season.

Offseason Moves

The Yankees were one of the busiest teams this offseason, making their additions by way of free agency and trade. Due to Clay Holmes’s departure from the team, New York started by addressing the back end of their bullpen, acquiring 2020 NL Rookie of the Year and two-time All-Star closer Devin Williams from the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for SP Nestor Cortes and 2B prospect Caleb Durbin.

Williams pitched six stellar seasons in a Brewers uniform, posting a 1.83 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 14.3 K/9, and 0.6 HR/9 during that period. He missed close to the first five months of last season with a back stress fracture, but his return to the bullpen during the home stretch did nothing but aid Milwaukee’s run to the NL Central division crown. In 22 outings, Williams held a 1.25 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, a 15.8 K/9, and only one home run allowed. He primarily features a fastball and changeup, with the latter pitch generating a near-50% whiff rate and ranking at the 99th percentile in Offspeed Run-Value. If “changeup” isn’t ringing a bell, it’s also commonly referred to as an “Airbender” by Pitching Ninja.

Williams will be a free agent after this season, so there’s a chance he gives the Yankees the Juan Soto treatment. But if New York can get high-leverage production from Weaver, they have an elite eighth and ninth-inning setup with Williams in the fold.

That brings us to Max Fried, who the Yankees signed to an 8-year, $218 million deal just a few days after acquiring Williams. Fried has been one of the most consistently good starters in baseball since he joined the league, posting an ERA over 4.00 only once in his eight-year career thus far. He’s also put together a decorated trophy case to this point; Fried has won three Gold Glove Awards, a Silver Slugger Award, two All-Star appearances, and two Top-5 finishes in NL Cy Young Voting.

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Last season, Fried finished with an 11-10 record, pitching to a 3.25 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, and 2.9 BB/9. He missed a couple of weeks in late July due to forearm neuritis, but he finished the season similarly to how he pitched up until the injury. He won’t overpower batters with velocity or lead the league in strikeouts, but he has excelled throughout his career at limiting loud contact and home runs.

The length of his contract coupled with the number of IL stints since 2018 provoked some concern over Fried’s upcoming stint with the Yankees, but for now, he makes New York’s rotation better when healthy.

The Yankees also turned their attention to the lineup after losing Soto, and while replacing a talent like that is almost impossible, they acquired two former MVP winners to try and boost the batting order. First, they traded for 2019 NL MVP Cody Bellinger from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for SP Cody Poteet. The Cubs also sent cash to the Yankees to assist in covering Bellinger’s contract, one that expires after the 2026 season if he does not opt-out after this season.

Bellinger spent the previous two seasons with the Cubs trying to recoup the elite status he had during his six seasons with the Dodgers. He looked to be on the right track after slashing .307/.356/.525 with 26 homers and 97 RBIs in 2023, but he took a couple of steps back last season with the slash line dropping to .266/.325/.426. Regardless, he saw his two lowest strikeout rates of his career in Chicago, and he rebuilt his value enough to be seen as a needed piece in the Bronx. The 29-year-old’s MVP-calibre seasons are more than likely behind him, but he can still be a valuable contributor to New York’s lineup, especially if he can benefit from hitting next to Judge. The short porch in right never did any left-handed hitter wrong, either.

New York also signed Paul Goldschmidt to a one-year, $12.5 million deal. Goldschmidt, one of the most accomplished first basemen of this century, had arguably the worst season of his career last year with the Cardinals. He hit .245/.302/.414 (all career-worsts) with 22 homers, 65 RBIs, and 33 doubles, and it was the first season in which his OPS+ was under 100.

The Yankees probably got Goldschmidt at somewhat of a discount given the decline in his numbers since he still won the NL MVP award in 2022, as well as the fact that he is 37 years old. However, the Yankees are hoping that the past two seasons are anomalies, as the rest of his seasons in his 30s have been very ideal. Excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 season, he’s played at least 150 games in each season since 2014, so his health has yet to be an issue. Again, replacing Soto was going to be a tough ask, but a low-risk, high-reward move that fits a positional need like this one makes sense for the Yankees.

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New York added a pair of arms to their bullpen, one featuring the re-signing of Jonathan Loáisiga to a one-year, $5 million deal with a team option for 2026. Loáisiga made only three appearances last season due to undergoing right elbow surgery in April. He also missed most of 2023 with elbow inflammation, so it’s been over two years since the Yankees have seen him in extended action. When healthy, he boasts a 98 mph sinker with a curveball that generated 50% and 41.4% whiff rates in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

In more of an under-the-radar move, the Yankees also traded for reliever Fernando Cruz, formerly of the Cincinnati Reds. Cruz features one of the most inspiring stories in the majors, pitching in the minors and other offseason leagues for an assortment of teams between 2011 and 2021. He spent the last three seasons with the Reds, holding a 4.52 ERA and 13.9 K/9 through 141 total appearances. Cruz’s most notable pitch is his splitter, a weapon that has accumulated a whiff rate north of 56% in all three of his major league seasons.

The Yankees sent C Jose Trevino to the Reds in the deal, and they also acquired C Alex Jackson, who figures to replace Trevino as the backup catcher.

To round out their offseason, New York signed veteran 1B Dominic Smith to a minor league contract. Smith spent last season with the Red Sox and the Reds, batting .233 with 6 homers, 34 RBIs, and a .691 OPS.

My take on New York’s 2025 Season Outlook

To their credit, New York addressed several areas this winter. Going from Holmes to Williams at closer is an upgrade, and they made an effort to put capable hitters around Judge now that Soto is in Queens. Regardless of how Goldschmidt and Bellinger do, the hitters in the bottom of New York’s lineup have to be better, or else they’ll be in the same predicament that they were in a year ago. Perhaps finally getting an extended look at highly-touted prospect Jasson Domínguez is what the lineup needs.

Health permitting, New York’s rotation can still be the strength of this team. They have a nice mix of older and younger, with Gil and Clarke Schmidt (2.85 ERA through 16 starts last year) both manning the backend of that group. It’ll be interesting to see what they’ll do with Marcus Stroman, who may be on the outside looking in unless the Yankees opt for a six-man rotation to start the season.

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Overall, I do have my doubts about the depth of the lineup, so if the Yankees are in contention by the trade deadline, they should be in play for the Chisholm-like move that they made last year. With the Rays getting healthier, the Red Sox getting stronger, and even the Blue Jays getting better this offseason, the Yankees will have way more than the Orioles to fight off in the AL East. With all of that being said, New York is more of a wild card team to me (figuratively and literally); they aren’t a shoo-in to repeat as division champs just yet.

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