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Predicting the roster if everything had gone perfectly for the Blue Jays since 2020

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It’s very easy to sit back and be an armchair GM for your favourite teams, and I’ll admit that I do it all the time. Thinking about the “what ifs” of free agency and different trades is one of my favourite parts of following Major League Baseball. As for me, I find the offseason almost as interesting as when we’re in the portion of the calendar that sees games being played every day.

As the Blue Jays continue their search for upgrades to their roster ahead of the 2025 campaign, I got thinking about some of the “misses” they’ve experienced over the past few years, such as their pursuits of Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, or some of the decisions made like trading Teoscar Hernández, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Gabriel Moreno. No front office will ever bat 1.000 in their decisions, but just for fun, what would the Blue Jays look like today if everything had gone right for them over the last five years or so? I thought it might be a fun thought experiment while we wait for the front office to bring us a belated Christmas present.

The thing about this exercise is that one move often changes the picture for the next, so there is very much a domino effect going on here with some of this. I’m also trying to be as realistic as I can while also talking about a fictional scenario where all the cards were played perfectly. This is also just my humble opinion, so feel free to comment about the changes you would have made to your “if everything had gone perfectly” Blue Jays roster.

Rotation

I would usually begin with the lineup for something like this, but instead, I’m going to start with the rotation this time around. In this fictional scenario, I think the starting five looks something like this:

1- Kevin Gausman
2- José Berríos
3- Alek Manoah
4- Nate Pearson
5- Ricky Tiedemann

Remember the hype that Nate Pearson had when he first hit the big leagues in 2020? He was supposed to be the next homegrown ace for the Blue Jays back then, but unfortunately, things just never panned out for the fireballer as a Blue Jay. He would battle a series of injuries and mechanical issues before eventually becoming a reliever, and last season he was dealt to the Chicago Cubs at the deadline. If we were rolling back the clock to 2020 for this experiment, that’s the year that Pearson made his MLB debut, so I feel like he would be a key part of the rotation on this timeline, and might even have ended up at the top.

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The other obvious difference from today’s reality is that I’ve included Alek Manoah and Ricky Tiedemann, who will both start the 2025 season on the IL while dealing with arm injuries. It’s a risk that comes with every pitching prospect, but it’s been an unfortunate development for this organization over the last couple of years that they haven’t been able to get a lot of internal help for their pitching staff. In this fictional scenario though, they’re both healthy and thriving, and the Blue Jays have a fearsome group of five hurlers to fill out their rotation.

Bullpen

While the Blue Jays had plenty of issues during their disappointing 74-win campaign in 2024, the bullpen might have been their weakest link.

A lot went wrong for John Schneider and Pete Walker’s pitching staff last year in general, but what if things had gone perfectly over the last five years? Maybe the relief corps would look something like this heading into 2025:

1- Tanner Scott
2- Jordan Romano
3- Yimi Garcia
4- Tim Mayza
5- Julian Merryweather
6- Chad Green
7- Zach Pop
8- Bowden Francis

Because the Blue Jays were able to save some money in other areas, I decided to splurge and sign Tanner Scott to battle with Jordan Romano for the closer’s job in Toronto. Of course, this also means that Romano is back and healthy for the Blue Jays rather than having signed with the Phillies after some injury issues last year. I’ve included Tim Mayza, who went from one of the better relievers in the American League in 2023 when he posted a 1.52 ERA over 69 appearances, to being DFA’d last year and eventually ending up with the Yankees. In this scenario, he continues to be the guy we saw in 2023 and gives the Blue Jays a dangerous 1-2 combo of lefty relievers.

Remember Julian Merryweather? He debuted for the Blue Jays back in 2020 and flashed the kind of potential that had most of us dreaming about what he could do as a late-inning weapon. As enticing as his triple-digit fastball was, unfortunately, he’s struggled mightily to stay healthy, but did finally have a full and productive season with the Cubs in 2023 before taking a step back last year. In this scenario, he’s part of an embarrassment of riches in the bullpen.

I’ve kept Chad Green around because, well why not, and added Canadian Zach Pop, who has fully reached his potential in this fictional scenario and arguably deserves a bigger role. Lastly, with three healthy homegrown talents already in the rotation, Bowden Francis waits patiently in the long-man role, ready to step in and throw shutouts when needed.

Lineup

The area that underwent the most significant change is the lineup.

1- Bo Bichette (SS)
2- Shohei Ohtani (DH)
3- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B)
4- Teoscar Hernandez (LF)
5- Marcus Semien (2B)
6- George Springer (RF)
7- Daulton Varsho (CF)
8- Gabriel Moreno (C)
9- Orelvis Martinez (3B)

Bench: Cavan Biggio (UT), Alejandro Kirk (C), Spencer Horwitz (1B/2B), Davis Schneider (IF/OF)

Are any of you surprised that Shohei Ohtani is sitting in the 2-hole as the DH in this scenario? Headed into 2025 Ohtani’s presence would also allow the Blue Jays to use a 6-man rotation, which wouldn’t hurt the development of some of their younger arms, nor do any damage to veterans like Gausman and Berrios as they navigate a long 162-game season into their 30’s. Slotting his name between Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. also gives the Blue Jays one of the most dangerous trios in baseball.

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Coming up to the clean-up spot, the Blue Jays went a different direction with Teoscar Hernández this time around and gave him an extension after the 2022 season rather than trading him. So no Erik Swanson in the bullpen, but Hernández remains. There’s also a familiar face in Marcus Semien, who the Blue Jays retained after he broke franchise records with them in 2021. Keeping Semien back then meant that the Blue Jays never made the trade for Matt Chapman, but that was okay because Cavan Biggio was an above-average third baseman for a couple of years, at least until Orelvis Martinez was ready to take over and push Biggio to his most valuable spot as the utility man.

The other key difference is that the Blue Jays managed to find a way to have Varsho, Moreno, and Kirk all on the roster. That was thanks to their 2022 deal being tweaked a little, with Danny Jansen headed to Arizona along with Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and their #4 prospect Otto Lopez. Having Varsho and Moreno manning key up the middle positions is huge for the defence, and it’s even better since they both developed into consistent offensive contributors as well

Of course, things rarely work out perfectly in sports or in life in general, and the Blue Jays’ current roster looks nothing like the fictional scenario I’ve spelled out above. Unfortunately, injuries happen, and there won’t be an infusion of youth in the rotation this year of Manoah, Tiedemann, and Pearson. Veterans like Semien and Hernandez are long gone, and no, Shohei Ohtani was never on that plane to Toronto.

All that said, the Blue Jays still have a solid foundation of talent on their roster, and with a few additions and tweaks, I believe they can still be a competitive team in 2025.