The Toronto Blue Jays will be looking to avoid a sixth straight loss when they wrap up a three-game series with the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre on Wednesday night.
Toronto jumped out to an early 3-0 lead on Boston on Tuesday night, but the Red Sox chipped away at the deficit to force extra innings and then prevailed in the 10th by a score of 6-5.
With the win, Boston kept its very slim playoff hopes alive with four games left to play.
Let’s dive into the game odds for Wednesday’s series finale between the Red Sox and Blue Jays courtesy of bet365:
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays odds
Red Sox Moneyline Odds | +115 |
Blue Jays Moneyline Odds | -135 |
Runline Odds | Blue Jays -1.5 (+150), Red Sox +1.5 (-180) |
Over/Under | Over 8 runs (-110), Under 8 runs (-110) |
Time/Date | Sept. 25, 7:07 p.m. ET |
TV | Broadcast: Sportsnet, Sportsnet+ |
Betting Boston Red Sox (80-78 SU, 74-84 ATS, 78-72-8 o/u)
The Red Sox have collected four straight wins to keep their playoff hopes alive, sitting 3 1/2 games back of the final American League Wild Card spot with four games to play. They have a 0.6% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs, and a loss Wednesday will officially put them out of contention. So, expect the Red Sox to play desperately and do everything possible to pull out a win.
Boston is 8-4 straight-up against Toronto this season, and the teams have played to a 6-6 over/under mark in those contests.
Betting Toronto Blue Jays (73-85 SU, 82-74 ATS, 79-75-4 o/u)
The Blue Jays entered Tuesday’s contest having scored just 10 runs in their previous six games, and they had only three runs on the board before the game went to extras. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. helped us cash one of our recommended bets yesterday with a two-run double that lifted him over his 1.5 total bases mark, and we would’ve cashed the under eight runs on the game total, too, had the game not gone to extras tied at 3-3.
Guerrero Jr. has feasted on Boston pitching this year, recording a .327/.365/.531 slash line with a homer and 12 RBIs in the season series. His .324 overall batting average is second in the majors behind Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr. (.335).
Probable starting pitchers
Boston: RHP Richard Fitts (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 4.02 K/9, 1.15 WHIP)
Fitts has been outstanding since his promotion from the minors earlier this month, allowing two runs (none earned) over his first three career MLB starts. He held the Minnesota Twins scoreless through five innings of work and struck out three in his last outing. Acquired in the Alex Verdugo trade from the New York Yankees, Fitts has a live fastball that averages 95 mph that he complements with a slider, sweeper and split finger. This will be the first time Toronto has seen him.
Toronto: RHP Kevin Gausman (13-11, 3.91 ERA, 8.18 K/9, 1.22 WHIP)
Gausman has been dynamite since the All-Star break, compiling a 6-3 record with a 3.04 ERA in 11 starts. He’s held opponents to a .205 batting average during that span, and has been pitching at the elite level the Jays had expected from him all season. However, the Red Sox have had success against him this season, tagging the right-hander for nine runs (seven earned) across 11 2/3 innings. Bettors should know that Gausman is one of the easiest pitchers in the league to steal bases off of, ranking third-worst in the majors in Pitcher Base Advances Prevented, according to Baseball Savant.
Weather
It’ll probably be another indoor game at Rogers Centre with a 60% chance of thunderstorms this evening in Toronto.
MLB betting trends
- The under is 6-1 in Toronto’s last seven games.
- The Red Sox have covered the runline in 12 of their last 18 games.
- The Blue Jays have hit the team total under in four of their last five games.
MLB player prop trends
- It’s a small sample size, but Fitts doesn’t have great swing-and-miss stuff, amassing no more than three strikeouts in each of his first three MLB starts. He’s -150 to record under 3.5 strikeouts against a Toronto team that doesn’t strike out often.
- Gausman has walked two or more batters in eight of his last 10 starts and has exceeded his line of 1.5 at a 57% rate this season. He’s +150 to walk two or more batters.
- Jarren Duran has eclipsed 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in five straight games and at a 63% clip this season. He’s -140 to accomplish the feat on Wednesday.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays predictions
- Target Boston’s speedsters to steal a bag in this game: Jarren Duran (+220), Ceddanne Rafaela (+425), and to a lesser extent Trevor Story (+320), and Vaughn Grissom (+475). Gausman really struggles to hold runners on, and Boston will be aggressive on the basepaths in an attempt to manufacture runs with so much on the line.
- In a small sample size, Boston’s Masataka Yoshida has owned Gausman, going 5-for-9 with a home run and four RBIs in nine career at-bats against Toronto’s righty. Yoshida is +750 to go deep, -210 to get a hit, and +155 to record over 1.5 total bases.
- As for the Blue Jays, target Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to keep rolling against the Red Sox by backing him to record over 1.5 total bases at even money.