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Looking into Génesis Cabrera’s successful season after a rough start

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The evolution of the Toronto Blue Jays bullpen has been one of many makeovers over the last decade or so. Consider the magazine cutout-type patchwork that was the 2019 bullpen, the deep and dominant 2023 group, or the impressive Benoit-Grilli-Osuna trio in 2016. Year after year, you can’t predict what Toronto’s bullpen will put together.

It’s been well-documented how inferior this year’s bullpen has been for the Blue Jays. Their bullpen ERA was only better than the White Sox and Rockies entering Wednesday, just a matter of months after posting the eighth-best mark during the 2023 season. That doesn’t mean there aren’t worthy storylines within this group, but one of them certainly goes to lefty Génesis Cabrera.

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Cabrera was DFA’d by the Cardinals in July of 2023, but since he was once a top 10 prospect in St. Louis’ farm system, he was someone who wouldn’t last long on waivers. The Blue Jays traded to acquire him, dealing minor league catcher Sammy Hernandez to the Cardinals in return for Cabrera. He was a relatively under-the-radar acquisition for the Blue Jays; shortstop Paul DeJong and reliever Jordan Hicks, two of Cabrera’s teammates in St. Louis, were also dealt to Toronto at the 2023 trade deadline. DeJong served as an immediate replacement for an injured Bo Bichette, and Hicks stood out from the rest with his prominent velocity.

Cabrera was a gem for the Blue Jays to round out the ’23 season, posting a 2.66 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, and 2.3 BB/9 through 29 games, much improved from his numbers with the Cardinals during this first half of that season. Now in his first full year with the Blue Jays, Cabrera has carved himself out a solidified spot in Toronto’s bullpen going forward.

Cabrera’s presence on the mound is certainly an emphatic one. His movements after a strikeout – the quick spin to facing the outfield or his side steps off the mound – are dramatic in a good way. He pitches with emotion, and coupling that with his performance manufactures an intriguing pitcher to watch.

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It wasn’t the most glamorous start to 2024 for Cabrera, who held a 6.35 ERA and 6.53 FIP in 12 March/April appearances. Since then, however, he has posted sub-4.00 ERAs in each month, lowering his season ERA to 3.04 through 58 total appearances. He’s also allowed only four earned runs in his last 33 games. Simply put, he’s getting outs for a bullpen that needs it.

Looking at his individual pitches, there is a clear trend as to what is working for him and what isn’t. On one hand, his fastballs (4-seam and sinker) are getting crushed. His 4-seam fastball allows a .378 batting average and a .756 slugging percentage, and his sinker allows a .362 average with a .553 slugging percentage. Furthermore, all seven of his home runs have been off of those two pitches and five of his nine doubles. On the other hand, including his cutter to this group, his breaking and off-speed pitches have been stellar. This includes the cutter (.173 BA/.222 SLG), the curveball (.071/.071), and the changeup (.077/.077). These trends are nearly a 180 from last year’s results; his sinker was his best pitch in terms of getting outs in 2023.

Doing a little more legwork on Cabrera’s stats, his advanced figures are proving to be quite perplexing, given how good he’s been at keeping runners from scoring. Cabrera’s WHIP is 1.425, and that is reflected by the fact that he’s allowed at least one baserunner in 41 of the 58 games that he has appeared in this season. That’s a lot of traffic on the base paths, but he’s only allowed an earned run in 12 games this season. In other words, there’s smoke but not always fire.

His FIP, measured by a pitcher’s effectiveness at preventing home runs, walks, HBPs, and striking out batters, is currently relatively high at 4.81. Per Baseball Savant, Cabrera ranks in the 24th percentile in Average Exit Velocity, 33rd percentile in Chase% and Hard Hit%, and 22nd percentile in K%. He’s getting hit relatively hard and striking out fewer hitters than he’s used to, which factor into a higher FIP, but let’s also factor in his so-so BABip of .283 with a league average at .300. He’s allowing a lot of base runners and getting hit pretty hard. Still, he’s getting outs when he needs to, and the ball is finding a glove. In fact, Jose Berrios is having a similar season; a 3.59 ERA is consistent with what Berrios has done throughout his career, but his FIP is much higher at 4.80. Again, lots of smoke, but not as much fire.

Reducing the walks and the loud contact can take Cabrera to the next level, but he hasn’t let it affect his individual performance this season. As I said, he’s allowed only four runs in his last 33 outings. That’s a lot of zeros. This is just a great example of the beauty of baseball and how stats don’t tell the whole story.