Whether it’s the regular season or the playoffs, homers play. That became especially clear in the playoffs when the teams who hit dingers usually won. As the team who ranked 26th in total home runs, the Toronto Blue Jays weren’t as privy to those game-changing moonshots as their power-rich counterparts.
And so begins the Blue Jays’ quest to restore some power back into their lineup that produced 156 total home runs, the fewest in a single season since 2008 when the Blue Jays clubbed only 126 home runs.
Unlike last offseason, there is power littered throughout the free agent landscape this winter. And one source could be the Maple Ridge, B.C. native with arms as thick as redwoods, Tyler O’Neill.
Let’s look in the rearview and reflect on O’Neill’s 2024 campaign and whether he makes sense as some outfield help for the Blue Jays in 2025 and beyond.
Tyler O’Neill in 2024
Despite the Boston Red Sox finishing with an 81-81 record and missing the playoffs by 5 games, trading for O’Neill from the St. Louis Cardinals proved to be one of their best moves of the offseason. O’Neill was limited to 113 games, but hit 31 home runs and posted a slash line of .241/.336/.511.
He burst out of the gate in April, clubbing 9 home runs for the Red Sox and posting a .693 slugging percentage during the first month of the season. The trade looked like an immediate win for the Red Sox.
Tyler O’Neill (5)
Solo Home RunOpponent: Los Angeles Angels
Pitcher: Chase Silseth
Date: 4/7/24 pic.twitter.com/pRqrt3NuQv— Red Sox Home Runs (@RedSox_HR) November 7, 2024
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
Split between both corner outfield spots, O’Neill played the outfield admirably and still has a great arm to gun down runners from either side of the diamond (evident by his four outfield assists last year). At this point in his career, O’Neill won’t give you Gold Glove calibre defense like he did in 2020 and 2021, but he won’t cost a team defensive runs.
His AB/HR rate of 13.3 was the best of his career, but unfortunately it was another tale of injuries as O’Neill missed almost one-third of the season due to various ailments. He spent time on the injured list with a concussion, right knee inflammation, and then an infection in his left leg.
O’Neill’s previous contract
O’Neill was on track to head to arbitration after the Red Sox acquired him but the club offered the tidy sum of $5.85 million for his final year of team control and he accepted. Coming off a season where he only played 72 games in 2023, O’Neill didn’t have a tonne of leverage to maximize his earnings.
After spending the first six years of his career with the St. Louis Cardinals and last season with the Red Sox, this is the first time O’Neill will test the waters as a free agent. And with no qualifying offer looming overhead, there will be even more suitors willing to pony up for O’Neill’s services.
Is O’Neill a fit for the Blue Jays?
Yes, but with an asterisk. On paper, he fits the bill for the Blue Jays in their pursuit of a corner outfielder. O’Neill can play multiple positions, his extra-base power is there, and could slot in as a middle of the order bat the Blue Jays desperately need.
Even Ross Atkins said in his end of season press conference that power hitters are “low hanging fruit” for the team, but a 33.6% strikeout knock last season and 30.8% lifetime strikeout rate is a little concerning for a team like the Blue Jays that’s chasing power but also trying to limit the punchouts.
Offensively, Blue Jays will stay flexible but people here at GM Meetings see the most likely spots for upgrade as corner OF, 2B & 3B in that order.
— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) November 5, 2024
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
Outside of Juan Soto, who’s a unicorn unto himself, O’Neill is in the next tier of free agent outfielders like Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernández, and Jurickson Profar. There’s an argument to be made that O’Neill has the highest upside of all those outfielders because of his raw power and only being 30 years old.
But the big asterisk is the injury concerns. He’s had at least one trip to the injured list every season since his MLB debut in 2018, save for the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. His raw power is appealing for any prospective team, but it’s all for naught if he can’t stay healthy.
If I were the Blue Jays, I’d be leery of making O’Neill the only power bat addition just in case injuries hamper him again this season. Adding O’Neill in addition to someone like Joc Pederson at least gives the club a fallback option of O’Neill misses significant time.
Santander and Hernández might be the more attractive options when it comes to free agent outfielders, but O’Neill shouldn’t break the bank and should be available on a modest three or four-year deal for a team like the Blue Jays without being attached to the qualifying offer.