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Free Agent Profile: Rōki Sasaki set to be posted by Chiba Lotte Marines this off-season

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Suddenly, one of the best pitchers in baseball is coming to North America.

On Saturday morning, the Chiba Lotte Marines announced that they’ll be posting right-handed pitcher Rōki Sasaki this off-season. While it’s unknown when that will happen (likely for the 2025 international free agency period according to Francys Romero), it’s expected that the Toronto Blue Jays will pursue the 23-year-old, as Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith reported the team will show serious interest. Moreover, ESPN’s Jeff Passan listed Toronto as a team that could have interest as well.

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That begs the question, what makes Sasaki so intriguing that every team and their mother will have interest in him this off-season?

Rōki Sasaki’s stats

Sasaki turned 23 years old less than a month ago (this is important), and in his aged-22 season with the Marines, he posted a 2.36 ERA in 111 innings pitched with a 28.7 K% and a 7.1 BB%. Throughout his four-year professional career, this was his worst season.

In 2023, Sasaki posted a 1.78 ERA in 91 innings pitched, with an insane 47.8 K% and a 4.9 BB%. The year before that in 2022, he pitched a career-high 129.1 innings with a 2.20 ERA, striking out 35.3% of batters and walking just 4.7% of batters.

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Even in 2021 as a 19-year-old, Saski had a 2.27 ERA in 63.1 innings pitched after dominating Japan’s minor league. That season saw him post a 23.4 K% and a 6.2 BB%, respectable results given his age.

In four seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball, Sasaki has a 2.02 ERA in 414.2 innings pitched, with a 32.4 K% and a 5.6 BB%. Pretty darn good.

Rōki Sasaki’s contract outlook

Last season, Japanese righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed a 12-year, $325 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, who also signed Shohei Ohtani to a $700 million deal over 10 years. Of course, the Dodgers are seen as favourites to sign Sasaki.

However, Sasaki won’t make anywhere near what Yamamoto did last off-season, as he’ll be posted under the age of 25. Sasaki will have to sign through international free agency, meaning a minor league deal with a signing bonus, similar to the process for Ohtani and the Angels.

If Sasaki is posted in the 2024 period, the Blue Jays almost have no chance to sign him as they have a limited signing bonus pool remaining, while the Dodgers have $2.5 million remaining. If posted for the 2025 period, the signing bonus pool resets on January 15, and the Jays will have $6.262 million available, with a handful of teams having $7.556 million. It’s worth mentioning that the Dodgers have $5.146 million.

Is Rōki Sasaki a fit for the Blue Jays

Sasaki averaged 97 mph on his fastball and rears back and touched triple-digits often, even hitting 102 mph during the World Baseball Classic. Even though the fastball is a potential 80-grade pitch, his splitter is his best weapon.

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Even if the Jays use 100% of their bonus in the 2025 IFA period, Sasaki will also make the league minimum for at least the next two seasons. He’ll more than likely have Super Two rights, meaning four seasons of arbitration.

However, to answer the question. The simple answer is yes. The Jays would have one of the best pitchers in baseball under team control for six seasons while only spending at most, $6.262 million to acquire him. That leaves a lot of money to sign other free agents elsewhere.

As always, you can follow me on Twitter @Ryley_L_D.