First, Happy Birthday to Spencer Horwitz. The young man turns 27 today. I hope 27 is his year. Have a good one, Spencer.
We have used this idea for the last couple of years. The idea is to go through some of the top free agents, use the contract FanGraphs suggests they will get and have a poll asking if we would like to sign him for that amount.
Number seven on Law’s list and number ten on Clemens’ list is Teoscar Hernández. We know about Teoscar. He was a Jay from 2017 to 2022. Since he’s had a not-so-great season with the Mariners and an excellent season with the Dodgers, ending with a World Series ring.
With the Dodgers he hit .272/.339/.501 with 33 home runs. A very nice season to take into free agency, unlike his .258/.305/.435 with 26 home runs in 2023.
As we know, his defense isn’t great. He was a -11 Outs Above Average last year. Of course, the large outfield in LA isn’t the best place for a limited-range fielder.
He’d probably like to return to the Dodgers, but I think they’ll shop around a bit before deciding whether to bring him back.
Law said:
The Dodgers picked up Hernández on a one-year, $23.5 million deal, and got the best year of his career — and probably the best that a player of his profile can deliver. He hit .272/.339/.501 around a 29 percent strikeout rate, setting career highs in walks and homers, and if he hadn’t been so bad on defense he would have been close to a 5-WAR player.
He’s always been a fan of pitches that are straight and less so of pitches that are bendy, although in 2024 he actually had his best-ever results off curveballs (likely just random noise). He did improve his swing decisions, swinging more at strikes and less often at balls, and cutting down on all swings at breaking balls versus 2023. If that better approach carries forward, he should crank out a couple of 3-4 win seasons before he hits that decline phase.
Clemens:
Hernández took a one-year deal with the Dodgers instead of something longer last year. Then he had perhaps his best offensive season, won the Home Run Derby, and got a World Series ring. Now he’s hitting the market in a position of strength with two of the coolest achievements in baseball checked off of his list. Sounds like a pretty nice year of work to me.
With his down 2023 now in the rear view mirror, I think that bet on himself is going to pan out marvelously. Would I want Hernández on my team on a five-year deal? I would not. Would I want him to be my best player? I would not. But keep him out of Seattle, and it seems pretty clear that he’ll hit a ton. He’s right on the left field/DH border as a defender, and he’s hardly a swashbuckling baserunner, but 30 bombs and a heaping helping of doubles feels like a safe bet.
He is 32 now and likely should spend a fair bit of his time as DH. I wouldn’t want him on a five-year contract, but three years?
We could ask the question of whether he’d want to come back to Toronto, but I’m guessing if they offer him the right amount of money he’d be willing. Of course, I don’t know if the Jays would want him back. When they traded him, there was an undercurrent of ‘we want to change the clubhouse atmosphere’. But that hasn’t gone all that well. And, of course, they wanted to improve their defense.
Clemens figures Teoscar will get a three-year, $24 million contract for a total of $72 million.
I wouldn’t go past three years, and I agree that last year is the best you could expect from him. But I’m a fan, and I’d like to watch him again.