We have used this idea for the last couple of years. The idea is to go through some of the top free agents, use the contract FanGraphs suggests they will get and have a poll asking if we would like to sign him for that amount.
Number four on Law’s list and number seven on Clemens’ list is Max Fried. He’s a lefty starting pitcher who turns 31 in January. He’s been terrific for the past five years, with a 2.81 ERA in 112 starts, 54 wins and 25 losses and a 19.2 bWAR. There has been some time missed with injuries. Last season, he missed time with left forearm neuritis (a nerve issue) and he’s had blister issues in the past.
Fried’s been very consistent, with a strikeout rate of around 23% in each of the last six seasons. He’s a ground ball pitcher, 58.8% ground balls last year. None of the rate stats are getting worse. He might age well.
Law said:
He threw a “sweeper” more in 2024, in his case a different slider with a lower velocity than his traditional one and a higher spin rate for more break along both axes, and when he gets it down it’s a real weapon against hitters on both sides of the plate. Because he relies so little on his four-seamer to finish off hitters, he seems like a good bet to hold value into his mid-30s, and I think he’ll get a deal that surprises the average fan, approaching $30 million a year and perhaps up to five years.
Clemens:
Fried doesn’t throw as hard as Snell. He doesn’t record as many strikeouts. He walks fewer batters. He feels like more of a steady, low-volatility option. But similarly, he’s only hit 180 innings pitched once in his career, thanks to a mixture of short starts and minor injuries. In fact, Snell is a fairly good comparison in broad terms: Since Fried’s debut in 2017, he’s thrown 120 fewer innings than Snell and posted similar run prevention numbers.
Clemens figures he’ll get five years at $28 million per for a total of $140 million.