We have used this idea for the last couple of years. The idea is to go through some of the top free agents, use the contract FanGraphs suggests they will get and have a poll asking if we would like to sign him for that amount.
Ben Clemens at FanGraphs and Keith Law at the Athletic have Juan Soto in the first spot on their lists of top 50 free agents. I’m sure that surprises you.
Soto turned 26 at the end of October, which makes him very young for a free agent, which doesn’t hurt his value. Neither does his 7.9 bWAR. He hit .288/.419/.569 with 41 home runs last year (right in line with what he did the year before. And he is still coming into his prime. He likely has a few 8+ War years in his future.
At 26, teams should feel willing to give him a ten-year contract without too much worry that the last couple of years will be a waste of money.
Soto is one of the best offensive players in baseball. Of course, he isn’t great defensively, but the way he hits, who cares?
Keith Law said:
If plate discipline was a person, it would be Juan Soto. He doesn’t chase bad pitches; bad pitches chase him. When MLB finally institutes a challenge system for balls and strikes, instead of using an automated system, the plan is to just ask Soto. So of course he’s the best free agent in this class, and a team is going to have to back up the proverbial truck for his services — especially since he’s going to start his new contract at just 26 years old.
Ben Clemens:
The Yankees are the front-runners to land Soto, but every team with a pile of money would love to have him. I think that 10 or so teams would be willing to pay Soto a record amount (in NPV terms at least — Shohei Ohtani’s contract last winter will almost certainly retain the raw dollar record) over a decade or longer. Basing Soto’s deal on precedent isn’t going to work – there just aren’t enough comparables. We’re talking Alex Rodriguez’s Rangers contract and nothing else – Bryce Harper is the only other player who feels particularly close, and Soto’s résumé is far more polished. He already has four five-win seasons, and he was easily on pace for another in the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign. In other words, his free agency is nearly unprecedented, and I think that the bidding will reflect that.
Ben Clemens figures he’ll get 12 years at $48 million per for a total of $576 million. Half a billion dollars sounds like a lot for a baseball player, but if anyone is worth that much, it is Soto.
Soto mentioned his friendship with Vlad and his desire to play on the same team. But I don’t know that the Jays would want to spend that much on one player. Then again, they were in on Ohtani last year. The idea of having Soto and Guerrero together in the same lineup (not to mention Bo Bichette, if he can bounce back to his pre-2024 numbers.