We have used this idea for the last couple of years. The idea is to go through some of the top free agents, use the contract FanGraphs suggests they will get and have a poll asking if we would like to sign him for that amount.
Gleyber Torres is #12 on Ben Clemens’ list at FanGraphs and #16 on Keith Law’s list at the Athletic. is #10 on Ben Clemens’ list at FanGraphs and #20 on Keith Law’s list at the Athletic.
I’ve seen Gleyber Torres mentioned as someone the Jays are interested in, and I can’t understand why.
Torres is a 27-year-old (turning 28 in December). He’s a right-handed hitting middle infielder (which means he’s right in the Jays’ wheelhouse). He was a big prospect when he came up with the Yankees, but some of the shine has come off seven seasons later.
He has some power—138 home runs in his seven seasons—and some speed—53 steals—but he didn’t have a great season going into free agency. This past season, he hit .257/.330/.378 with 15 home runs (down from 25 in 2023).
His hard contact dropped significantly last year (26.9% from 32.8), and he hit to the opposite field more than in the past. Also his strikeout rate jumped (20.5% from 14.6, though his strikeout rate has been higher in the past).
Defensively, well, he really shouldn’t be a middle infielder anymore. FanGraphs has him at a -7 Outs Above Average at second base in 2024. He’s error-prone (33 errors at second in the last two years).
We have this habit of moving middle infielders to the outfield, but Torres would have to move to left (or perhaps first) soon.
He did have a much better second half last year, .654 OPS in the first half and .780 in the second, which is a good sign for next year. Not that I’m talking myself into the idea, but as bad as his year was, the improvement was nice. Some of the decline is likely due to some nagging injuries.
Keith Law said:
Torres was one of the top prospects in the game before his MLB debut, and came out strong in his first two seasons, including what remains his offensive peak year in 2019, but he hasn’t been able to match that in any of the four post-pandemic seasons since. He’ll turn 28 in December, so he’s really young for a free agent and should have plenty of years of peak production left, but he just can’t turn on a fastball any more.
He’s lost some bat speed, certainly, and it shows against four-seamers — 63 percent of the time he put that pitch in play, it was to the right side of the field, and he hit four times as many of those fastballs to right field as he did to left. His .257/.330/.378 line with below-average defense was only worth 1.7-1.8 WAR in 2024, making him a below-average regular. Maybe some team can get him to pull the ball again and get back to some power — if it can help stem the drop in his bat speed, too.
Law isn’t a fan.
Clemens brings up his relatively young age and that he was good in 2023:
That’s all true, but let’s pump the brakes a little here. This was a down season, but as recently as 2023, Torres popped 25 homers and put up a batting line that was 20% above average with peripherals to match. He has an excellent sense of the strike zone. He dealt with a series of groin injuries this year that may have sapped his power; he was swinging faster and doing more damage in the second half of the year and particularly in the playoffs.
Oh yeah, and he hasn’t turned 28 yet. An aging slugger dealing with recurring groin injuries would scare me, but I’m a lot less worried about one of the youngest free agents on the market – the youngest other than Soto, in fact. This is an above-average hitter with plenty of good years ahead of him. Both Steamer and ZiPS would put him even higher up the list than I have him. This is just a bet on talent, and on fighting the urge to knock a guy for not living up to his prospect pedigree.
Clemens figures Gleyber will get a five-year deal at $18 million per, for $90 million.