We have used this idea for the last couple of years. The idea is to go through some of the top free agents, use the contract FanGraphs suggests they will get and have a poll asking if we would like to sign him for that amount.
Number three on Law’s list and number four on Clemens’ list is Corbin Burnes. I saw a post somewhere saying the Jays were interested in him, which surprised me. I thought the last place the Jays would be looking to add would be the rotation. Of course, it was likely written just to get clicks, and there was no truth.
Burnes has been a very good starter over the last four seasons. He’s 48-30 with a 2.94 ERA in 125 starts with a 16.5 bWAR. He won the Cy Young in 2021 and finished seventh and eighth in the next two seasons, and he’s been an All-Star in each of those seasons.
He turned 30 last month, so the next contract will take him into his declining years (what a sad thought for those who are somewhat over 30).
Keith Law said:
He’s probably going to lose some velocity over the course of whatever deal he signs, but his plus command, slight groundball tendency and reliance on movement and changing speeds all point to someone who will continue to have success even if his fastball cools a little. Maybe he’s a contender’s ace now, and a No. 2 or a good No. 3 at the end of a contract. He should get at least $25 million a year, probably getting five years because that’s typical for a high-end starter even with the injury risks associated with pitching.
Ben Clemens:
This one’s a real eye of the beholder situation. The upsides are obvious: We’re talking about one of the best handful of pitchers in the game. Over the past half-decade, only Zack Wheeler has been better than Burnes by any flavor of WAR. He throws a ton of innings. He has five plus pitches and commands them well. When guys like this hit free agency, someone tends to hand them a bag full of money.
On the flip side, every peripheral indicator you can imagine has been ticking down for years. Burnes doesn’t throw as hard as he used to. He doesn’t miss as many bats as he once did. It’s hard to disentangle what’s ominous and what’s merely player choice – he’s throwing his cutter more often to seek weak contact, which is definitely depressing his strikeout rate. But teams haven’t made a habit of ignoring red flags and giving 30-year-old pitchers lengthy contracts.
His strikeout rate has dropped each of the last four seasons, from 35.6% to 30.5% to 25.5% to 23.1%, which is a concern. It is hard to imagine that he’ll continue to be so successful if the strikeout rate continues to drop. But then, that’s free agency. Most of the time, by the point guys get to it, they are approaching when the numbers start dropping.
He does get ground balls about half the time.
Ben thinks he’ll get a four-year contract worth $35 million a year for a total of $140 million.