We have used this idea for the last couple of years. The idea is to go through some of the top free agents, use the contract FanGraphs suggests they will get and have a poll asking if we would like to sign him for that amount.
Number seven on Law’s list and number six on Clemens’ list is Blake Snell. He’s a lefty starting pitcher who turns 32 next month. He won the Cy Young in 2023. Last year wasn’t as healthy, he only made 20 starts. He had a 3.12 ERA in 104 innings, with a 34.7% strikeout rate and a 10.5% walk rate, both better than his Cy Young year.
The injuries were muscle issues. It sounds like he came into spring training in less-than-perfect shape, which caused him strains when he tried to ramp up.
He’s not the most durable pitcher; he’s thrown more than 150 innings just twice in the nine seasons he’s been in the MLB. If you are looking for positives, pitchers who don’t throw a ton of innings in their 20s often age well. But then, often isn’t always.
Blake strikes out a ton of batters and walks a lot of batters but gets weak contact when he doesn’t miss bats or the strike zone.
We have starters in their 30s. Expecting each to have a good season is hopeful, but if we hope Gausman, Berrios, and Bassitt can continue to defy age, maybe we can bet Snell will, too.
But then I’d rather see the team invest in bats and bullpen pitchers.
Kieth Law said:
Snell had a late start to his 2024 season, but when he returned from a stint on the injured list on July 9, he pitched a lot like a guy who’d just won his second Cy Young Award, throwing 80 innings with 114 strikeouts and 30 walks allowed, along with a 1.23 ERA.
Some of it was fluky, of course, like the .203 BABIP he allowed in that stretch, but he has plus stuff — a curveball with big horizontal break that was one of the most valuable pitches of its type in 2024, a fastball with good carry, a changeup without much life but that has great deception. He walks too many guys, but he misses a ton of bats and his stuff generates a lot of weak contact, enough that he still can be an above-average starter even when he’s not winning awards.
Clemens:
A few years ago, teams started using short-term, high-dollar contracts as a way to compensate pitchers with spectacular talent but longevity concerns. Sure, plenty of those deals were for older starters, but Snell somewhat fits the bill; he’ll be 32 next season, and teams will likely hesitate to make a long-term commitment to someone with his injury history. But $100 million-plus over three years could make everyone happy. Snell gets a de facto four-year deal that makes up for last year’s pillow contract. His team gets one of the best pitchers in the game, right this instant. There are no shortage of contenders looking for one more elite starter; Snell is the obvious choice for a team that isn’t interested in the Burnes sweepstakes.
Clemens figures Snell will get a three-year contract at $35 million a year for a total of $105 million.