We have used this idea for the last couple of years. The idea is to go through some of the top free agents, use the contract FanGraphs suggests they will get and have a poll asking if we would like to sign him for that amount.
Anthony Santander is #12 on Ben Clemens’ list at FanGraphs and #16 on Keith Law’s list at the Athletic.
Santander is a 30-year-old switch-hitting outfielder (in his career, he’s about even against lefties and righties) who has played some first base. He’s played eight seasons for the Orioles, the last three of which have been quite good. He’s hit .244/.317/.478 with 105 home runs and an 8.3 bWAR. Last year, he set a new career high in home runs at 44.
He isn’t a great defensive outfielder, FanGraphs has him at a -2 Outs Above Average in right-field last year, which tracks with his career numbers. And he isn’t a good baserunner, -2.7 runs on the basepaths.
But he hits home runs and that’s something the Jays could use.
He hasn’t hit well at Rogers Centre in his career, .194/.275/.398, but that’s just 27 games. He has hit well against the Jays, .258/.325/.520 with 21 home runs in 220 plate appearances, but most of that came in Camden Yards.
Will Santander age well?
His strikeout rate isn’t climbing. And his walk rate has been pretty static for the last few years. He’s a big-time pull hitter (44.8% of his batted balls are pulled). A lot of his fly balls left the park last year, 17.1%.
Keith Law says:
Santander picked a good time to have his best year, with career bests in homers (44), walks (58), slugging (.506), and wRC+ (129). It also came with a career-worst BABIP of .225, which was in fact the lowest of any qualifying hitter in MLB last year. He swings hard and is trying to lift everything in the air, which is great when he squares it up but results in a lot of pop-ups as well — probably not enough to explain the horrendous BABIP, but enough to think his career rate of .263 is probably closer to his true talent level.
Ben Clemens:
That’s not to say there are no red flags. Santander is a below-average corner outfielder, and trending downward. He’s one of the slowest non-catchers in the sport already, and he’s only 30. He’s completely maxed out in terms of lifting and pulling; we’re talking about Isaac Paredes levels of pulled fly balls here. Those homers feel a little fluky, too. He only hit 25 doubles, and posted a wild HR/FB ratio that he’s unlikely to repeat. I’m not saying his offense is a house of cards, but if he’s more of a 30-homer guy next year, we’re down to a 105-110 wRC+ pretty quickly.
Can Santander contribute to a great team? Obviously. I’d want him on my team, too, in plenty of circumstances. But I expect that he’ll get a bigger guarantee than Teoscar Hernández, and I want the other side of that trade every time. I like Santander, but I think that the market likes him more than I do. This ranking and contract estimate reflect that.
Clemens figures him to get five years at $20 million a year for $100 million total.
For me, it is a question of whether you would rather have Santander or Teoscar Hernandez. But Clemens suggests that Santander will get a five-year contract and Teoscar a three-year one. I’d rather the one with the shorter term. Santander is two years younger, which is worth something. Teoscar is an old friend, also worth something.